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<TITLE>september</TITLE>
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<CENTER><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="+4">Events
of September 1997</FONT></FONT></FONT></CENTER>
<P><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="+1"></FONT></FONT></FONT>
</P>
<CENTER><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="+1">Anne
D. Baylon</FONT></FONT></FONT></CENTER>
<CENTER><HR WIDTH="100%"></CENTER>
<CENTER></CENTER>
<CENTER><B><I><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="+1">CENTRAL
EUROPE</FONT></FONT></FONT></I></B></CENTER>
<CENTER></CENTER>
<CENTER><B><I><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000">Poland</FONT></FONT></I></B></CENTER>
<P><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><B>Sep. 20</B> The former
Communists--now renamed Democratic Left Alliance and headed by President
Aleksander Kwasniewski--have brought about a new prosperity to Poland over
their four years in government; yet they lag behind in polls for a
scheduled parliamentary election. The public appreciates the new economic
growth but resents the government's perceived growing arrogance and
political corruption, such as party members appointments to important
public institutions like TV or radio.</FONT></FONT> </P>
<P><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><B>Sep. 21</B> Despite
President Kwasniewski's 60 percent popularity rating, the revamped
Solidarity union movement that toppled Communism eight years ago defeats
the governing former Communists with 32.8 percent of the votes against
25.5 percent. Marian Krzaklewski, the architect of Solidarity's
reconstruction and Lech Walesa's successor, is a charismatic politician
who might want to run for President against President Kwasniewski in three
years.</FONT></FONT> </P>
<CENTER><FONT SIZE="+1"></FONT></CENTER>
<CENTER><B><I><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="+1">EASTERN
EUROPE</FONT></FONT></FONT></I></B></CENTER>
<CENTER></CENTER>
<CENTER><B><I><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000">Azerbaijan</FONT></FONT></I></B></CENTER>
<P><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><B>NY Times, Sep. 21</B>
Since he became Azerbaijan's President in 1993, Heydar Aliyev, a protégé
of Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev, has turned his country from a place of
chaos (with scarce food, Armenian troops marching through it, and warlords
causing anarchy) into a stable and almost prosperous country whose vast
oil reserves promise great wealth. Described as "a classic Soviet
leader," however, President Aliyev has an autocratic style that has
curtailed democracy by limiting press freedom and harassing dissidents.</FONT></FONT>
</P>
<CENTER></CENTER>
<CENTER><B><I><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000">Belarus</FONT></FONT></I></B></CENTER>
<P><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><B>Sep. 3</B> The Soros
Foundation--the largest independent non-governmental organization that
U.S. financier George Soros opened in Belarus to promote education,
science, and civic groups--closes after months of government harassment.
President Aleksandr Lukashenko has been campaigning to control independent
non-governmental organizations and suppress civil and human rights in
Belarus.</FONT></FONT> </P>
<CENTER></CENTER>
<CENTER><B><I><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000">Russia</FONT></FONT></I></B></CENTER>
<P><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><B>Sep. 1</B> Saying that
"younger, more energetic people would be needed to run the country in
the future," President Yeltsin announces that he will step down when
his four-year term ends in 2000.</FONT></FONT> </P>
<P><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"> Defense
Minister Igor Sergueev reports that $1.4 billion in back wages owed to
Russian soldiers have now been paid. An additional $1 billion, covering
benefits such as child care and food subsidies, will be paid using the
proceeds of the sale of state businesses.</FONT></FONT> </P>
<P><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><B>Sep. 7</B> Founded in
1147, Moscow celebrates its 850<SUP>th</SUP> anniversary with a $60
million party. The occasion gives a chance to Moscow's Mayor Yuri Luzhkov
to advance his presidential prospects.</FONT></FONT> </P>
<P><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><B>Sep. 14</B> Russian
officials report a plot to assassinate Anatoly Chubais, the architect of
Russia's economic reforms and President Yeltsin's successful re-election
campaign. Although the plot's authors or reasons are not known, it is
taking place in a climate of struggle over economic policy and amid a
bitter battle among Russia's new capitalists over the privatization of
state property.</FONT></FONT> </P>
<P><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><B>Sep. 19</B> Amidst
protests that religious freedom is being restricted, Russia's Parliament
passes a bill that protects the Russian Orthodox Church from competition
by other religions. The bill grants special status to religions that were
recognized 15 years ago when Russia was part of the Soviet Union, i.e.,
the Orthodox Church, Judaism, Islam ,and Buddhism. But restrictions
apply to Catholics, evangelical Christians, and dissident Orthodox sects.</FONT></FONT>
</P>
<P><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><B>Sep. 20</B> Tapping
into the Russian military's discontent, Gen. Lev Rokhlin, a Chechen and
Afghan war veteran who is chairman of the Parliament's Defense Committee,
has vowed to transform the armed forces into a powerful opposition and to
obtain President Yeltsin's resignation. His allies include former high
ranking officials who were dismissed by President Yeltsin, such as former
Defense Minister Igor Rodionov and former Chief of Security Aleksandr
Korzhakov.</FONT></FONT> </P>
<P><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><B>Sep. 24</B> In a
speech to the Russian Federation Council, President Boris Yeltsin signals
a major shift in economic policy by denouncing a small group of bankers
and business people who jeopardize the economy by concentrating most of
the wealth and controlling the economy. Although the bankers helped Mr.
Yeltsin in his re-election campaign, the President has vowed to distance
himself from them and to make a clear separation between government and
business in order to insure greater free-market competition.</FONT></FONT>
</P>
<P><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><B>Sep. 26</B> Despite
widespread criticism from Western church leaders, President Yeltsin signs
a new law that protects the Orthodox Church from competition by other
Christian churches. The law creates a hierarchy, with the Orthodox Church
in the most privileged category and other churches receiving secondary
status.</FONT></FONT> </P>
<CENTER></CENTER>
<CENTER><B><I><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000">Russia/Chechnya</FONT></FONT></I></B></CENTER>
<P><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><B>Sep. 12</B> Although
Russia and Chechnya had agreed on Sep. 9 to rebuild a key oil pipeline
running through their territories to transport oil from Azerbaijan to the
Black Sea, a bomb attack against Russian workers followed by mutual
threats and insults leads to a change in plans. The Russian government
announces that it will circumvent Chechnya entirely by rebuilding the
pipeline around it.</FONT></FONT> </P>
<P><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><B>Sep. 18</B> Carrying
out Islamic law in Grozny, a Chechen firing squad executes two men who
were responsible for the killing of a mother and two of her children. The
execution embarrasses Russia, which has promised to end capital punishment
in order to gain entry into the Council of Europe but still considers
Chechnya as part of Russia.</FONT></FONT> </P>
<CENTER></CENTER>
<CENTER><B><I><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="+1">THE
FORMER YUGOSLAVIA</FONT></FONT></FONT></I></B></CENTER>
<CENTER></CENTER>
<CENTER><B><I><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000">Bosnia</FONT></FONT></I></B></CENTER>
<P><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><B>Sep. 1</B> About 300
Bosnian Serbs attempt to retake control of a television transmitter in the
northeastern part of Bosnian Serb territory from NATO troops by attacking
them with rocks. No injuries are reported.</FONT></FONT> </P>
<P><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><B>Sep. 2</B> NATO
peacekeepers return the TV transmitter to the Bosnian Serbs after the
Bosnian Serbs, who are hard-liners led by former Bosnian Serb President
Radovan Karadzic, agree to tone down their propaganda against the Bosnian
peace agreement and to give air time to supporters of the peace agreement.</FONT></FONT>
</P>
<P><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><B>NY Times, Sep. 3</B>
Bosnian Serb President Biljana Plavsic has asked the Organization for
Security and Cooperation in Europe to organize October legislative
elections among the Bosnian Serbs. Mrs. Plavsic is hoping that the
54-member organization will assist her in her political fight against
former President Radovan Karadzic, who is holding on to his power base.</FONT></FONT>
</P>
<P><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><B>Sep. 3</B> In the face
of recent confrontations between American troops and crowds of violent
Bosnian Serbs, the new NATO military commander, General Wesley Clark,
warns that NATO troops are prepared to use all necessary means, including
lethal means, to protect themselves and pursue their stabilization
mission.</FONT></FONT> </P>
<P><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><B>Sep. 7</B> In Banja
Luka--Bosnian Serb President Biljana Plavsic's stronghold--the police ban
a rally planned by President Plavsic's rivals, the Bosnian Serb
hard-liners who support former President Radovan Karadzic. Dr. Karadzic's
loyalists are seeking to oust Mrs. Plavsic, who has asked NATO's help in
equipping the Bosnian Serb armed forces.</FONT></FONT> </P>
<P><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><B>Sep. 9</B> For the
second time in recent weeks, NATO forces block a "coup" by
Bosnian Serb hard-liners intended to overthrow Mrs. Plavsic. NATO forces
also close down barracks belonging to Dr. Karadzic's special police.</FONT></FONT>
</P>
<P><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><B>NY Times, Sep. 11</B>
The recent confrontations between Plavsic and Karadzic supporters have
raised concern among NATO commanders and Western diplomats that the only
way to make the Dayton peace agreement work is for NATO troops to use more
force and arrest Dr. Karadzic, who has been indicted for war crimes.</FONT></FONT>
</P>
<P><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><B>Sep. 11</B> In
retaliation for the Bosnian Serbs' breach of an agreement to curb their
anti-NATO propaganda, the Pentagon sends three electronic-warfare aircraft
to Bosnia in order to jam local radio and television transmissions.</FONT></FONT>
</P>
<P><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><B>Sep. 13</B> After two
postponements, municipal elections take place in Bosnia under NATO
supervision. Serbs, Muslims, and Croats return--many for the first
time--to towns they lived in before the war in order to cast their votes.
According to international officials, communities that do not accept the
results of the vote will incur sanctions.</FONT></FONT> <BR><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><B>Sep. 16 </B>Several
officials of the OSCE, the group that organized the municipal elections,
threaten to resign after their decision to annul votes cast for the ruling
Serb Democratic Party (run by Radovan Karadzic, who is charged with war
crimes) is overturned by Robert Frowick, the U.S. diplomat who runs the
organization. According to Mr. Frowick, such a decision could endanger the
safety of the OSCE staff but the officials still argue that a person
indicted for war crimes cannot maintain a party position or function
within the party.</FONT></FONT> </P>
<P><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><B>Sep. 17</B> A
U.N. helicopter transporting officials whose mission was to help the
Bosnian elections crashes in Central Bosnia, killing all 12 passengers,
including Gerd Wagner, a German deputy to the civilian administrator of
the Dayton accords.</FONT></FONT> </P>
<P><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><B>Sep. 23</B> Saying
that the West must remain "engaged" in Bosnia to preserve peace
in southeastern Europe, U.S. national security adviser Samuel Berger warns
that the U.S. and its European allies must be prepared "for an
extended stay in Bosnia beyond the scheduled withdrawal of NATO forces
next June."</FONT></FONT> </P>
<P><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><B>Sep. 26</B> A Bosnian
Serb, Nikola Jorgic, is convicted of genocide and sentenced to life in
jail by a German court (which had agreed to take the case from the
overburdened war crimes tribunal in The Hague) for the killing of Muslims
during the Bosnia war. The decision coincides with a growing movement to
arrest other suspected war criminals such as Radovan Karadzic.</FONT></FONT>
</P>
<CENTER></CENTER>
<CENTER><B><I><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000">Croatia</FONT></FONT></I></B></CENTER>
<P><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><B>Sep. 17</B> According
to a confidential report probably written by an OSCE official in the city
of Mostar, the Croatian government has subverted the Dayton peace accords
by ruling and financing the Croatian part of Bosnia, having close
financial ties with Croatian war-crimes suspects, and amassing millions of
dollars in illicit profits.</FONT></FONT> </P>
<CENTER></CENTER>
<CENTER><B><I><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000">Serbia</FONT></FONT></I></B></CENTER>
<P><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><B>Sep. 22</B> With
two-thirds of the votes counted, elections for a new President and
Parliament in Serbia show a setback for the Socialist Alliance Party of
President Milosevic. A second round for the presidential election is now
scheduled to take place on Oct. 5. As to the parliamentary elections, no
party wins an outright majority: Mr. Milosevic's Socialists obtain 36
percent of the votes, followed closely by the ultranationalist Radical
Party.</FONT></FONT> </P>
<P><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><B>Sep. 23</B> Based on
the final results of the vote, President Milosevic's governing party will
have to share power for the first time in 10 years. The new
government is likely to be a coalition between the governing Socialist
Party and the ultranationalist Radical Party.</FONT></FONT> </P>
<P><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><B>Sep. 30</B>
Dramatically consolidating their power, President Slobodan Milosevic of
Serbia and his allies dismiss Zoran Djindjic, the popular Mayor of
Belgrade who had been a driving force behind last winter's protests
against Mr. Milosevic. They also dismiss the pro-democracy directors of
Studio B, the city's television station. Both moves destroy the major
gains that were obtained after weeks of public protests against the
government of Mr. Milosevic.</FONT></FONT> </P>
<CENTER></CENTER>
<CENTER><B><I><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="+1">WESTERN
EUROPE/EASTERN EUROPE</FONT></FONT></FONT></I></B></CENTER>
<CENTER></CENTER>
<CENTER><B><I><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000">Comprehensive
Nuclear Test Ban Treaty</FONT></FONT></I></B></CENTER>
<P><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><B>Sep. 22</B> Speaking
at the U.N., President Clinton says that he will ask the Senate to approve
the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, signed in 1996 by 146 nations,
which would ban all nuclear explosions. Before taking effect, however, the
treaty must be approved by 44 countries with nuclear capability. So far,
the only country to have done so is Japan.</FONT></FONT> </P>
<CENTER></CENTER>
<CENTER><B><I><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000">Czech
Republic/NATO</FONT></FONT></I></B></CENTER>
<P><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><B>Sep. 30</B> As
Hungary, Poland, and the Czech Republic start discussing the details of
their forces' integration into NATO, the Pentagon warns the Czech Defense
Ministry that the Czech government's military spending is not sufficient
(1.5 percent of gross domestic product versus, for example, 2.2
percent in Poland). The Pentagon also expresses concern about the Czech
public's lack of enthusiasm for membership in NATO.</FONT></FONT> </P>
<CENTER></CENTER>
<CENTER><B><I><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000">International
Court of Justice/Slovakia/Hungary</FONT></FONT></I></B></CENTER>
<P><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><B>Sep. 25</B> The
International Court of Justice in The Hague leaves unresolved a dispute
between Hungary and Slovakia over a 1977 treaty that planned for the two
countries to each build a hydroelectric dam with Danube water. (In 1992,
after engineers in Slovakia--still part of Czechoslovakia at the
time--diverted 80 percent of the Danube's flow for their dam, Hungary
claimed that the diversion caused environmental damage, refused to build
its own dam, and brought the case to the World Court, asking for the
Slovak dam to be dismantled). According to the Court ruling, both
countries are equally responsible for breaking the 1977 treaty and must
negotiate in "good faith" to reach its objectives, while
compensating each other for damage.</FONT></FONT> </P>
<CENTER></CENTER>
<CENTER><B><I><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000">Land Mine
Treaty</FONT></FONT></I></B></CENTER>
<P><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><B>Sep. 17</B> After two
weeks of negotiations in Oslo, about 100 countries agree to submit for
formal ratification a treaty banning anti-personnel land mines. The
treaty, which is aimed at countries like Angola, Afghanistan, Cambodia,
and Mozambique, where thousands have been killed and maimed in recent
years, is to be signed in Ottawa in December and go into effect after 40
countries have ratified it. Although President Clinton called for a land
mine ban at the U.N. in 1994, the United States will not sign the treaty.
According to U.S. military commanders, land mines are still needed to
protect American forces.</FONT></FONT> </P>
<CENTER></CENTER>
<CENTER><B><I><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000">Norway</FONT></FONT></I></B></CENTER>
<P><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><B>Sep. 16</B> After
announcing that he would resign if his Labor Party did not get 37 percent
of the votes in national elections, Prime Minister Thorbjoern Jagland is
expected to step down on Oct. 30 after falling 3 percentage points shy of
his goal. Norway's Christian Democratic Party, which promotes Christian
values and opposes abortion, is likely to take over the government.</FONT></FONT>
</P>
<CENTER></CENTER>
<CENTER><B><I><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000">Romania/U.S.A.</FONT></FONT></I></B></CENTER>
<P><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><B>Sep. 10</B> A $1.4
billion deal in which Romania was to purchase 96 U.S.-made Cobra attack
helicopters and supply a Romanian assembly plant falls through when the
International Monetary Fund decides that Romania's economy cannot afford
the purchase. The deal undermines how American policy in Eastern Europe
can be contradictory: while Washington urges countries to be
fiscally prudent, the Pentagon and the State and Commerce Departments
encourage arms suppliers to sell their expensive equipment.</FONT></FONT>
</P>
<CENTER></CENTER>
<CENTER><B><I><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000">U.S.A./Russia</FONT></FONT></I></B></CENTER>
<P><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><B>Sep. 26</B> With the
hope of reviving the second strategic arms reduction treaty (START 2)
whose ratification, signed in 1993, has stalled in Russia, the U.S. signs
with Russia a series of arms control agreements that would require Russia
to disable launching systems (missile silos, bombers, and submarines) by
2003 but would give it until 2007 to dismantle them--in effect pushing
back the START 2 treaty by five years.</FONT></FONT> </P>
<P><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><B>Sep. 26</B> The U.S.
signs accords with Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine that modify
the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty. Although the accords reaffirm
prohibitions on longer-range defensive weapons, they introduce flexibility
in the development of shorter-range systems similar to the Patriot
missiles used during the Gulf War.</FONT></FONT> <BR> </P>
<HR WIDTH="100%">
<P><BR>
<FONT COLOR="#083250"><FONT SIZE="-2">Copyright @ Center for Strategic
Decision Research 1998</FONT></FONT> <BR><FONT COLOR="#083250"><FONT SIZE="-2">Strategic Decision Press</FONT></FONT>
</P>
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