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<TITLE>october</TITLE>
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<CENTER><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="+4">Events
of October 1997</FONT></FONT></FONT></CENTER>
<CENTER><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="+1"></FONT></FONT></FONT></CENTER>
<P ALIGN="CENTER"><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="+1">Anne
D. Baylon</FONT></FONT></FONT></P>
<CENTER><HR WIDTH="100%"> </CENTER>
<CENTER><B><I><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="+1">CENTRAL
EUROPE</FONT></FONT></FONT></I></B></CENTER>
<CENTER></CENTER>
<CENTER><B><I><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000">Poland</FONT></FONT></I></B></CENTER>
<P><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><B>NY Times, Oct. 10</B>
As Poland gets richer, the number of cars and novice drivers on the roads
has been growing. Bad roads and alcohol consumption have caused Poland to
suffer one of the highest rates of accidents involving drinking and
driving (with a 16 percent increase over last year for the first six
months of 1997) despite legislation against drunken driving that is among
the strictest in Europe.</FONT></FONT> </P>
<P><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><B>Oct. 15</B> At a time
when Poland is seeking approval for entering NATO, the departing
government (which suffered an electoral defeat in Sept.) has signed an
agreement with Israel to buy $500 million in anti-tank missiles and $200
million in avionics in preference to an offer by Boeing, which also
involves British, Swedish, and Italian companies, for the avionics. The
deal, which has still to be formally ratified, has prompted protests for
its unfair bidding procedures and is being opposed by leaders of the new
government.</FONT></FONT> </P>
<P><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><B>Oct. 17</B> Jerzy
Buzek, a 57-year-old chemistry professor and former anti-Communist
underground activist, becomes Poland's Prime Minister. Mr. Buzek will lead
a coalition of two anti-Communist parties: Solidarity Election Action,
which is union-based, and Freedom Union, which is market-oriented.
President Kwasniewski, who is a former Communist, and Prime Minister Buzek
will have to govern in a "cohabitation" style similar to the
French one. Poland also introduces a new Constitution which weakens the
power of the President and strengthens the role of Parliament.</FONT></FONT>
</P>
<P><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><B>Oct. 29</B> Prime
Minister Buzek announces the composition of his new center-right cabinet.
Two well-known figures of the Solidarity underground re-emerge: Bronislaw
Geremek, a former leading figure in Parliament, becomes Foreign Minister
while Janusz Onyszkiewicz, a Defense Minister in the early ë90s,
becomes Defense Minister again. Leszek Balcerowicz, the architect of
Poland's successful economic program in the early ë90s, is appointed
Finance Minister. Marek Krzaklewski, the "power" behind the new
government, holds no formal post except as head of the Solidarity
parliamentary group.</FONT></FONT> </P>
<CENTER></CENTER>
<CENTER><B><I><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000">Romania</FONT></FONT></I></B></CENTER>
<P><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><B>NY Times, Oct. 19</B>
In a big reversal of dictator Nicolae Ceausescu's scheme in the mid ë80s
to convert the delta of the Danube from wetlands to arable land,
scientists and engineers from several countries are working on returning
drained areas to their previous wetland state for the purpose of
protecting wildlife and controlling flooding. The Danube Delta Biosphere
Reserve, an agency created by the Romanian government in 1991, is
overseeing the project, which is funded by the World Bank's Global
Environment Facility and other donors.</FONT></FONT> </P>
<CENTER></CENTER>
<CENTER><B><I><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000">Slovakia/Hungary</FONT></FONT></I></B></CENTER>
<P><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><B>NY Times, Oct. 12</B>
Although Slovakia and Hungary have signed treaties to fix their current
borders and respect their minority rights, Slovak Prime Minister Vladimir
Meciar, who is running for re-election in 1998 and needs the support of
the far-right Slovak Nationalist Party, has been proposing to his
Hungarian counterpart Gyula Horn to trade the hundreds of thousands of
ethnic Slovak and Hungarian minorities who live in their respective
countries. Six hundred thousand Hungarians currently live in Slovakia. Mr.
Horn has dismissed the proposal as explosive.</FONT></FONT> </P>
<CENTER></CENTER>
<CENTER><B><I><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="+1">EASTERN
EUROPE</FONT></FONT></FONT></I></B></CENTER>
<CENTER></CENTER>
<CENTER><B><I><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000">Kazakhstan</FONT></FONT></I></B></CENTER>
<P><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><B>Oct. 10</B> President
Nursultan Nazarbayev removes Akezhan Kazhegeldin, his reformist Prime
Minister who had conducted a swift industrial privatization, and replaces
him with Nurlan Balgimbayev, a close ally who has displayed in the past a
preference for state control of enterprises. A nation of 17 million,
Kazakhstan has staked its future on foreign investments in its huge
untapped oil fields. The move has prompted alarm among foreign investors.</FONT></FONT>
</P>
<CENTER></CENTER>
<CENTER><B><I><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000">Russia</FONT></FONT></I></B></CENTER>
<P><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><B>Oct. 1</B> The Moscow
prosecutor's office investigates allegations that Uneximbank, Russia's
most powerful bank, paid through a Swiss intermediary $100,000 to Russia's
former privatization chief Alfred Kokh in exchange for his help in
obtaining control of a recently privatized telecommunications company. Mr.
Kokh, who was dismissed from his post in September, had been accused by
President Yeltsin of being too close to Uneximbank.</FONT></FONT> </P>
<P><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><B>Oct. 2</B>
Contradicting a September statement in which he had declared he would not
seek re-election, President Yeltsin does not rule out the possibility of
running for a third term in 2000 when asked again. The Russian
Constitution, however, limits the President to two consecutive terms.</FONT></FONT>
</P>
<P><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><B>Oct. 9</B> In
Strasbourg for a Council of Europe summit meeting, President Yeltsin
insists that he will not run again for President in year 2000.</FONT></FONT>
</P>
<P><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><B>Oct. 15</B> Efforts by
Communists in Parliament to derail Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin's
government by pushing through a no-confidence measure fail when President
Yeltsin threatens to dissolve Parliament and call early elections if the
no-confidence vote goes through (according to polls, the Communists would
be the biggest losers if elections were held now). The government will now
be free to address the subjects of spending cuts in the 1998 budget and
the new tax code, which had prompted the no-confidence vote in the first
place.</FONT></FONT> </P>
<CENTER></CENTER>
<CENTER><B><I><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000">Russia/Belarus</FONT></FONT></I></B></CENTER>
<P><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><B>Oct. 8</B> Pavel
Sheremet, a Belarussian journalist working for Russia's ORT television
network, is freed after having been detained by Belarus since July for
trying to cross the border into Lithuania illegally. The detention of the
journalist, who had been working on a report on smuggling, had caused ill
feelings between the presidents of the two countries. President Aleksandr
Lukashenko, who has a reputation as an autocrat, has long been unhappy
about Russian journalists' activities because Russian television can reach
Belarus and therefore escape censorship.</FONT></FONT> </P>
<CENTER></CENTER>
<CENTER><B><I><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000">Russia/Commonwealth
of Independent States</FONT></FONT></I></B></CENTER>
<P><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><B>Oct. 23</B> At a
meeting of the Commonwealth of Independent States, the nations that were
part of the Soviet Union hold Russia responsible for the poor condition of
the group. President Boris Yeltsin acknowledges that the group has "worked
irrationally and ineffectively" and is in need of complete
reorganization.</FONT></FONT> </P>
<CENTER></CENTER>
<CENTER><B><I><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000">Tajikistan</FONT></FONT></I></B></CENTER>
<P><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><B>Oct. 16</B> Gunmen
kill 14 presidential guards at their headquarters. Although no
organization claims responsibility for the attack, rebel groups who do not
recognize the peace accord signed in June by President Emomali Rakhmonov
with the main opposition groups (in order to stop the civil war that broke
out after independence in 1991) are being suspected.</FONT></FONT> </P>
<CENTER></CENTER>
<CENTER><B><I><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000">Uzbekistan</FONT></FONT></I></B></CENTER>
<P><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><B>NY Times, Oct. 28</B>
In 30 years, the Aral Sea, once the world's fourth-largest lake, has lost
half of its water. While for thousands of years, Central Asia's two major
rivers, the Amu Darya and the Syr Darya, fed the Aral, their water became
diverted through irrigation canals as the region became the main Soviet
source of cotton. Whatever was left has since been contaminated by
chemicals sprayed on the cotton fields. Although the presidents of the
five countries affected (Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan,
and Turkmenistan) have urged action to protect the Aral Sea, they have
little optimism and warn that saving it may be impossible.</FONT></FONT>
</P>
<CENTER><FONT SIZE="+1"></FONT></CENTER>
<CENTER><B><I><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="+1">THE
FORMER YUGOSLAVIA</FONT></FONT></FONT></I></B></CENTER>
<CENTER></CENTER>
<CENTER><B><I><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000">Bosnia</FONT></FONT></I></B></CENTER>
<P><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><B>Oct. 1</B> NATO troops
seize four television transmitters under the control of Bosnian Serb
leader Radovan Karadzic and silence his television station after the
station refuses to stop its attacks against international organizations
working in Bosnia, including the 35,000 peacekeepers. According to NATO
Supreme Allied Commander Gen. Wesley Clark, broadcasts are to resume soon
under "new management" and will be turned over to loyalists of
Bosnian Serb President Biljana Plavsic in the meantime.</FONT></FONT> </P>
<P><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><B>Oct. 8</B> Hundreds of
Bosnian Serb policemen loyal to President Plavsic (who controls the
western part of the Bosnian Serb republic from her headquarters in Banja
Luka) confront rival policemen loyal to Bosnian Serb wartime leader
Radovan Karadzic near Derventa, 50 miles east of Banja Luka. The armed
standoff is dispersed by NATO-led troops.</FONT></FONT> </P>
<P><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><B>NY Times, Oct. 10</B>
Results from the September municipal elections show that Bosnian Muslims,
voting by absentee ballots, have won control of Srebrenica, the town in
eastern Bosnia where thousands of Muslims were expelled and massacred by
Bosnian Serb soldiers during the Bosnian war. Srebrenica, whose population
before the war was 70 percent Muslim and 30 percent Serb, is now only
populated by Serbs who have vowed to keep the Muslims away. As a result,
enforcing the election victory according to the Dayton peace accords may
be close to impossible.</FONT></FONT> </P>
<P><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><B>Oct. 10</B> Municipal
election results for two contested towns, Brcko (held by Serbs but wanted
back by Muslims) and Mostar (divided between Muslims and Croats), show
that the towns will be "sharply divided and probably as difficult to
govern as before the vote."</FONT></FONT> </P>
<P><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><B>Oct. 15</B> Since she
took control of Banja Luka in July, President Biljana Plavsic has grown in
confidence and resisted carrying out the Dayton peace agreement, causing
concern among Western diplomats. In particular, she has refused to allow
displaced Muslims and ethnic Croats to return to their homes in Banja
Luka.</FONT></FONT> </P>
<P><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><B>Oct. 16</B> Managing
to circumvent the NATO troops that seized their transmitters on Oct. 1,
hard-line Bosnian Serbs resume broadcasting. Although NATO officials
ignore where the Bosnian Serbs are broadcasting from or how much of the
country they are reaching, they assume that there are at least two
clandestine transmitters.</FONT></FONT> </P>
<P><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><B>Oct. 17</B> Meeting in
Rome, envoys from the Contact Group powers (U.S.A., Germany, Britain,
France, and Russia) agree on the need to regulate all news media in Bosnia
in order to ensure "normal European democratic standards."</FONT></FONT>
</P>
<P><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><B>Oct. 18</B> Bosnian
Serb television broadcasting goes off the air after the West warns that it
will not "tolerate pirate broadcasts." According to an
independent news agency, NATO forces have now taken control of the last
transmitter under the hard-liners' control.</FONT></FONT> </P>
<P><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><B>Oct. 29</B> Under the
peace accords, Washington promised to arm the Muslim-Croat Federation
since it was badly outgunned during the Bosnian war by the Bosnian Serbs
supported by the Yugoslav army. But the accords imposed a ceiling of 1,000
artillery pieces, which now requires the Federation to destroy over 100
artillery pieces by Oct. 31 in order to receive a shipment of 126 U.S.
howitzers.</FONT></FONT> </P>
<CENTER></CENTER>
<CENTER><B><I><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000">Bosnia/Croatia</FONT></FONT></I></B></CENTER>
<P><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><B>NY Times, Oct. 3</B>
In recent weeks, the Muslim-led Bosnian government and Croatia have been
stepping up a secret program to rearm and train their army in violation of
the Bosnian peace agreement which severely limits the number of heavy
weapons each side to the agreement can own. By contrast, the Bosnian Serb
army has been suffering from its current power struggle, lack of funds,
poor morale, and a shortage of spare parts, making it a likely loser if it
is attacked.</FONT></FONT> </P>
<CENTER></CENTER>
<CENTER><B><I><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000">Croatia</FONT></FONT></I></B></CENTER>
<P><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><B>Oct. 6</B> Hoping to
release Washington's pressure, which caused loans to Croatia from the
World Bank and the International Monetary Fund to be blocked, Croatia
shows signs of wanting to abide by the Bosnia peace accords as 10 Bosnian
Croats (including Dario Kordic, the most wanted Bosnian Croat war crimes
suspect) turn themselves in to the International Tribunal in The Hague.</FONT></FONT>
</P>
<CENTER></CENTER>
<CENTER><B><I><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000">Serbia</FONT></FONT></I></B></CENTER>
<P><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><B>NY Times of Oct. 6</B>
There are signs that the autocratic rule of President of Yugoslavia
Slobodan Milosevic has been breeding an increasingly radical and
violence-prone opposition. In Serbia, where average salaries are under
$100 a month, people have turned to extremists out of desperation; in
Montenegro, the main candidate for the presidency, Milo Djukanovic, is
fiercely opposed to Mr. Milosevic; and in Kosovo, which lost its
autonomous status seven years ago under Mr. Milosevic's government, ethnic
Albanians have turned to guerrilla warfare against Serbia.</FONT></FONT>
</P>
<P><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><B>Oct. 21</B> Dusan
Jovanovic, a 14-year-old Gypsy boy, is beaten to death in a Belgrade
street in full daylight. There are 150,000 mostly poor, barely literate
Gypsies in Serbia, who have little affinity with the Croatian, Serbian,
and Muslim ethnic parties in power in the former war zone. And with the
rise of neo-Nazi gangs in Serbia, there has been an increasing number of
violent attacks on Gypsies.</FONT></FONT> </P>
<CENTER></CENTER>
<CENTER><B><I><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000">Serbia/Kosovo</FONT></FONT></I></B></CENTER>
<P><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><B>NY Times, Oct. 19</B>
In Kosovo, a region of southern Serbia inhabited by 2.2 million ethnic
Albanians (over 90 percent of the population), an ethnic Albanian
guerrilla force, the Kosovo Liberation Army, has started to mount
coordinated attacks on Serbian police stations, recently killing four
Serbian police officers and five civilian officials. With newly acquired
weapons, mostly smuggled into Kosovo from looted Albanian government
storehouses, the rebels appear ready to wage a secessionist war.</FONT></FONT>
</P>
<CENTER></CENTER>
<CENTER><B><I><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000">Serbia/Montenegro</FONT></FONT></I></B></CENTER>
<P><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><B>Oct. 6</B> Candidates
from Mr. Milosevic's Socialist Party fail to win in the elections for the
presidencies of Serbia and Montenegro. In Serbia, a less than 50 percent
turnout invalidates the elections, which will be held again in two months.
In Montenegro, the two leading candidates fail to obtain the necessary 50
percent majority, forcing a runoff to be held on Oct. 19.</FONT></FONT>
</P>
<P><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><B>Oct. 20</B> The winner
of the runoff election in Montenegro is Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic of
Montenegro, who becomes President. Mr. Djukanovic has denounced Mr.
Milosevic's authoritarian rule and hinted that Montenegro might declare
its independence. This is a new blow to Serbian President Slobodan
Milosevic since Montenegro controls half of the Yugoslav Parliament's
upper house, which has the power to choose or dismiss the Yugoslav
President.</FONT></FONT> </P>
<CENTER></CENTER>
<CENTER><B><I><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000">The Balkans</FONT></FONT></I></B></CENTER>
<P><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><B>Oct. 22</B> In
accordance with a June 1996 treaty aimed at achieving stability in the
Balkans by reducing arms and creating parity among the parties, 4,220
tanks, jets, helicopters, and artillery pieces have been destroyed by
Yugoslavia, Croatia, and Bosnia (i.e.,the Bosnian Federation of
Muslims and Croats and the Bosnian Serbs) over the past 16 months. The
treaty requires the governments to destroy weapons by Oct. 31 in order to
get down to the specific limits that have been set.</FONT></FONT> </P>
<CENTER><FONT SIZE="+1"></FONT></CENTER>
<CENTER><B><I><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="+1">WESTERN
EUROPE/EASTERN EUROPE</FONT></FONT></FONT></I></B></CENTER>
<CENTER></CENTER>
<CENTER><B><I><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000">Council of
Europe</FONT></FONT></I></B></CENTER>
<P><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><B>Oct. 11</B> In
Strasbourg, the 40-nation council adopts a declaration that strengthens
human and civil rights for 800 million Europeans (from Iceland to
Ukraine). In particular, the declaration sets up plans for a court of
human rights that would allow citizens to seek redress against their
governments, for a commissioner for human rights, and for banning cloning.</FONT></FONT>
</P>
<CENTER></CENTER>
<CENTER><B><I><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000">France/NATO</FONT></FONT></I></B></CENTER>
<P><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><B>Oct. 1</B> Since the
United States is unwilling to turn over the Southern Command in Naples to
a European officer, France announces that it will not rejoin the NATO
military command structure when it is reorganized at the end of the year.
The Naples command has always been held by a U.S. admiral and its major
military asset in wartime would be the U.S. Sixth Fleet.</FONT></FONT>
</P>
<CENTER></CENTER>
<CENTER><B><I><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000">Soros
Foundation/Russia</FONT></FONT></I></B></CENTER>
<P><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><B>NY Times, Oct. 20</B>
American financier George Soros announces that he will spend $500 million
in Russia for the next three years in the sectors of health care,
educational opportunities, and retraining of the military for civilian
jobs. Mr. Soros, who has a foundation in Moscow, the Open Society
Institute, will become the leading philanthropist in Russia. He is also
the leading Western investor in the country through his Soros Fund
Management, which has invested over $2.5 billion in Russian business.</FONT></FONT>
</P>
<CENTER></CENTER>
<CENTER><B><I><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000">Treaty on
Banning Chemical Weapons</FONT></FONT></I></B></CENTER>
<P><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><B>Oct. 31</B> The
Russian Parliament's lower house approves the international treaty banning
chemical weapons that was signed in 1993 by 167 nations and ratified by
102 of them. But Russia is expected to run into large financial costs
(about $5 billion) and technical problems in the destruction of its
arsenal--the world's largest stock of poison gas (nerve gas, mustard gas,
and blister agents). The treaty must still be voted on by the Parliament's
upper house.</FONT></FONT> </P>
<CENTER></CENTER>
<CENTER><B><I><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000">U.S.A./NATO
Expansion</FONT></FONT></I></B></CENTER>
<P><FONT FACE="Palatino"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><B>Oct. 7</B> Secretary
of State Madeleine Albright presents to the U.S. Senate the White House's
case in favor of approving the admission into NATO of Hungary, Poland, and
the Czech Republic. Although senators are mostly favorable, they raise
questions concerning the financing of the expansion, estimated by the
Pentagon at $35 billion over 13 years and about $2 billion for the U.S.
share, and about the Administration's ability to obtain commitments from
the allies that the U.S. "will not bear the brunt of the costs."</FONT></FONT> <BR> </P>
<HR WIDTH="100%">
<P><BR>
<FONT COLOR="#083250"><FONT SIZE="-2">Copyright @ Center for Strategic
Decision Research 1998</FONT></FONT> <BR><FONT COLOR="#083250"><FONT SIZE="-2">Strategic Decision Press</FONT></FONT>
</P>
<P><FONT COLOR="#083250"><FONT SIZE="+1"><A HREF="oct.htm">Return to Top
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