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<title>Center for Strategic Decision Research, Peter Struck, Michele Alliot-Marie, General George Joulwan, SACEUR, General James L. Jones, SHAPE, NATO, EU, BDLI, ILA, EADS, Northrop Grumman, Under Secretary Michael Wynne, Assistant Secretary Linton Wells, Ambassador William Burns, NATO Military Committee Chairman General Harald Kujat, General Dynamics, Boeing, Global Security Terrorism, Iraq, Afghanistan, Rainer Hertrich, David Stafford</title>
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<td width="66" ><p><img src="../2004book/logo-kevin-web.jpg" width="60" height="66"></p> </td>
<td width="652"><div align="center" class="style5">20th International Workshop on Global Security - Moscow, 27-30 June 2003<br>
"Toward Global Security: New Strategies, Technologies, and Alliances"</div></td>
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<p align="center" class="style17"><strong>Table of Contents</strong></p>
<p align="left" class="style18"><a href="joulwan.htm">Fmr SACEUR General George Joulwan </a><span class="style217"><strong></strong></span><span class="style217"><strong><a href="weissingerbaylon.htm">Workshop Chairman Roger Weissinger-Baylon </a></strong></span></p>
<p align="center" class="style18"><strong>Pa</strong><strong>rt 1 </strong></p>
<p class="style18"><span class="style217"><strong><a href="fursenko.htm">Russian First Deputy Industry, Science, Tech Minister Andrey Fursenko</a></strong></span><span class="style217"><strong><a href="vershbow.htm">US Ambassador to Russia Alexander Vershbow</a></strong></span><span class="style217"><strong><a href="lukin.htm">Russian Duma Deputy Speaker Vladimir Lukin </a></strong></span><span class="style217"><strong><a href="yavlinsky.htm">Russian Duma Member Grigory Yavlinsky</a></strong></span><span class="style217"><a href="velikhov.htm">Kurchatov Institute Director Evgeny Velikhov </a><a href="pickering.htm">Fmr US Ambassador to Russia Thomas Pickering</a><a href="portillo.htm">UK House of Commons Member Michael Portillo</a><a href="deruyt.htm">Belgian Ambassador to UN Jean de Ruyt</a><a href="vonploetz.htm">German Ambassador to Russia Hans-Friedrich von Ploetz </a><a href="wolsztynski.htm">French Air Force Chief of Staff General Richard Wolsztynski</a><a href="sedivy.htm">Fmr Czech Chief of Staff General Jiri Sedivy </a><a href="mehta.htm">Indian Armed Forces General Ashok Mehta</a></span><span class="style217"><a href="george.htm">UK House of Commons Member Bruce George</a></span><span class="style217"><a href="nurick.htm">Carnegie Moscow Center Director Robert Nurick</a><a href="ranquet.htm"> French Defense Ministry Dep Director Strat Affairs General Robert Ranquet</a></span></p>
<p align="center" class="style18"><strong>Part 2 </strong></p>
<p class="style18"><span class="style217"><span class="style222"><a href="fasslabend.htm">Fmr Austrian Defense Min Werner Fasslabend</a></span></span><span class="style217"><span class="style222"><a href="rogov.htm">Russian Acad of Sciences USA Canada Institute Director Serguey Rogov</a><a href="baranovsky.htm"> Russian Acad of Sciences IMEMO Deputy Director Vladimir Baranovsky</a><a href="piontkovskiy.htm">Strat Studies Ctr Director Andrey Piontkovskiy</a></span></span><span class="style219"><a href="onyszkiewicz.htm">Fmr Polish Defense Min Janusz Onyszkiewicz </a><a href="welti.htm"> Swiss Defense Ministry Security Policy Director Amb Philippe Welti</a><a href="pascu.htm">Romanian Defense Minister Ioan Pascu </a><a href="chandra.htm">Indian Dep Natl Security Advisor Satish Chandra</a><a href="marschan.htm">Finnish Defense Ministry Special Counselor Nikolai Marschan</a></span></p>
<p align="center" class="style18"><strong>Part 3 </strong></p>
<p class="style18"><span class="style219"><a href="volkman.htm">US Defense Dept Dir for Intl Coop Alfred Volkman</a><a href="dipaola.htm">Italian Sec Gen Defense Adm Giampaolo di Paola </a></span><span class="style209"><span class="style197"><a href="schuwirth.htm">EU Mil Staff Director General Rainer Schuwirth </a></span><span #invalid_attr_id="10px 0px 0px 10px"><span class="style197"><a href="naumann.htm">Fmr German Defense Chief Gen Klaus Naumann </a></span></span></span><span class="style219"><a href="cosentino.htm">Alenia Sr Vice President Carmelo Cosentino</a><a href="trice.htm">Lockheed Martin Sr Vice President Robert Trice </a><a href="ray.htm">Raytheon Europe President Norman Ray</a></span><span class="style219"><a href="dyson.htm">EDventure Chairman Esther Dyson</a></span><span class="style219"><a href="kravchenko.htm">Boeing Russia/CIS Pres Sergey Kravchenko</a></span><span class="style219"><a href="karachinsky.htm">IBS Group President Anatoly Karachinsky</a></span><span class="style219"><a href="doughty.htm">Motorola Vice President John Doughty</a></span><span class="style219"><a href="galitsky.htm">ELVIS+ Founder and CEO Alexander Galitsky</a></span><span class="style219"><a href="lentz.htm">US Assist Sec Defense Office Director of Info Assurance Robert Lentz</a> </span><span class="style219"><a href="coggins.htm">Silicon Graphics Sr Vice President Steve Coggins</a></span><span class="style219"><a href="gante.htm">BDLI President Hans-Joachim Gante</a></span><span class="style217"><a href="sinha.htm">MITRE VP Agam Sinha</a></span></p>
<p align="center" class="style18"><strong>Part 4 </strong></p>
<p class="style18"><span class="style219"><a href="linkevicius.htm">Lithuanian Defense Minister Linas Linkevicius</a></span><span class="style219"><a href="korcok.htm">Slovakian State Secretary of Foreign Affairs Ivan Korcok</a></span><span class="style219"><a href="brodi.htm">Hungarian Dep State Secretary of Foreign Affairs Gabor Brodi</a></span><span class="style219"><a href="hunter.htm">Fmr US Ambassador to NATO Robert Hunter</a></span><span class="style219"><a href="vondra.htm">Czech Dep Foreign Minister Alexandr Vondra</a></span><br>
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<h1 align="center" class="style196 style22 style23">The Psychological Dangers of the New Global Environment</h1>
<p align="center" class="style196 style20 style24">Dr. Vladimir Lukin<br>
Deputy Speaker of the Russian State Duma</p>
<p align="left" class="style196 style20"><span class="style87 style21">I would like to make a few personal comments on the nature of global dangers in the post-September 11 world. I actually believe that the dangers of our time are not really new ones, they are simply being manifested in new ways. Terrorism is as old as the world. The first terrorist was Herostratus, who burned a cathedral to immortalize his name, which he did. The difference now, first and foremost, is that there are new technological advances with which to implement the dangers. The motivations for terrorism may be more or less the same, but technological capabilities for universal destruction are quite new, and that is the real news.</span></p>
<p align="left" class="style196 style20"><span class="style87 style21 style22"><span class="style21">We have already heard about the military dangers and the technological dangers of the new global environment, but I would like to draw your attention to the psychological dangers, which are very important and should be given more attention as well as analyzed for possible solutions. </span></span></p>
<p align="center" class="style16">THE INABILITY TO ACT DECISIVELY</p>
<p align="left" class="style21"> Our recent experience with the dangers of weapons of mass destruction and the terrorist threat have pointed out two problems that appear both in times of cooperation and times of discussion, and that are dangerous. First is the inability to act decisively; when my American colleagues refer to this lack of decisiveness, in my view they are correct. Some colleagues in Europe have tried not to see what is most unpleasant; it is more comfortable to proclaim oneself a pacifist. Being a pacifist is good and noble, but it does not lead to withstanding global dangers. I absolutely agree with the American people who strongly call on us to act, to stop only discussing things and act. </p>
<p align="center" class="style16">THE LURE OF NATIONALISM</p>
<p align="left" class="style21"> The second problem is the temptation to dominate the action to counter the dangers. All of us are human beings, and the sum of our feelings, including our prejudices. One thing humans sometimes do is promote themselves as great powers. Russians are not immune from these instincts, as our history demonstrates. But that is why we understand these feelings so well. So we believe it would be very dangerous now to lose objectivity when we have the technological capability to harm the entire world. We have a difficult situation confronting terror and terrorist weapons of mass destruction. But we must continue to struggle against traditional feelings of national superiority. One would think that a country such as the United States, the greatest power and the most effective power to address global security challenges, would be immune from nationalism because of its makeup. Unfortunately, this not true. There is an international idea of nationalism, which we former Soviets well understand. But this idea of international happiness can become ordinary chauvinism to manifest a great power. </p>
<p align="center" class="style16">THE NEED FOR GREATER TRUST</p>
<p align="left" class="style21"> I bring up the issue of trust because of these problems. One of the most important lessons of the last few months and years of the struggle against terrorism is that we must substantially upgrade our level of trust, and this must be done in a bilateral way. Of course, our European friends and colleagues and we Russians must somehow understand more clearly the new world situation as well as the new dangers and the urgency to act. On the other hand, our American friends should rethink their style and some of their actions that manifest traditional great-power policies and that do not lead to increasing trust. </p>
<p align="left" class="style21"> In the fight against terrorism, the most effective weapon is the monitoring of terrorist activity before catastrophe strikes. This demands the right level of trust between states, organizations, etc. Such monitoring has begun, and it is very good, but it is only the beginning. To increase the effort, and to make it effective and truly global, we need to have more mutual trust. And to do this, we need to be more attentive to old-world suspicions and to traditional actions that generate such suspicions. </p>
<p align="center" class="style16">THE IRANIAN AND NORTH KOREAN PROBLEMS</p>
<p align="left" class="style21"> I would like to make two last points. One of the most important things we need to discuss is the Iranian problem, which Ambassador Vershbow referred to earlier. I think we are all interested in promoting Iran as a strong, stable, democratic state without weapons of mass destruction, and certainly Russia is more interested in this than most because Russia is a close neighbor of Iran. The problem is that Iran divides our mutual interests regarding competition for markets. We will have to find a way to have Iran comply with AIEI demands but one that also gives Russia the right to trade with Iran in full accordance with our agreement. This issue is making progress, but we need to remain clear on the subject. </p>
<p align="left" class="style21"> Secondly, there is the issue of North Korea. Here I realize that Russia's position was less clear than I would like it to be, perhaps because of inherited feelings from the Soviet past. However, it is true that there is pressure to be cautious vis-à-vis North Korea's nuclear program, and Russia, together with China, is quite interested in North Korea's denuclearization. We will have to cooperate and act as we can. I understand that China has more influence on this situation than anyone else, including the United States and Russia. China has already begun cooperative efforts in this direction, and we will need to be even more cooperative and coordinate our positions. However, we should not struggle for influence; for example, if Mr. Putin or Igor Ivanov visit North Korea again, no one should suspect that the visit is an attempt to set up something separate but to coordinate our positions. </p>
<p align="left" class="style21"> We all have some resources, and we will need to use every one of them. But I see only two possible outcomes: one is that North Korea is bluffing, that they have no nuclear weapons; this is the much easier outcome. But if they do have nuclear weapons, the solution is much more difficult. However, I am certain that by coordinating our efforts and by having Russia take a more active role we can achieve what we need to achieve. Russia is not interested in being surrounded by nuclear weapons and you must trust us and rely on us. </p>
<p align="left" class="style196 style20"><span class="style87 style21 style22"><br>
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