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    <P ALIGN="center"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="7">Events of April
      1996 </FONT></FONT></P>
    <HR SIZE="1">
    
    <P ALIGN="center"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="5">Anne D. Baylon
      </FONT></FONT></P>
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    <CENTER><ADDRESS>

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      <FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="5"><B><I>CENTRAL EUROPE

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    <P ALIGN="center"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="4"><B><I>Latvia/Estonia/Lithuania
      </I></B></FONT></FONT></P>
    
    <P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Apr. 14</B> In a
      dispute between Latvia and Estonia over sea borders and access to rich
      fishing grounds, Estonian Prime Minister Tiit Vahi and Latvian Prime
      Minister Andris Skele reach a temporary agreement to regulate fishing
      until Aug. 1. Disputes over sea borders have caused friction in Baltic
      countries' relations since they left the Soviet Union five years ago. (For
      example, Latvia also has a dispute with Lithuania over a sea area that
      Western oil companies plan to prospect.) </FONT></FONT></P>
    
    <P ALIGN="center"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="4"><B><I>Poland
      </I></B></FONT></FONT></P>
    
    <P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>NY Times, Apr. 6</B>
      After 100 days in office, President Aleksander Kwasniewski, 41, Prime
      Minister Wlodzimierz Cimoszewicz, 46, and Foreign Minister Dariusz Rosati,
      49, give the image of young social democrats. Unlike some other Central
      European figures who received university degrees in the Soviet Union, Mr.
      Kwasniewski traveled to America for the bicentennial celebrations; Mr.
      Cimoszewicz studied for five years at Columbia University on a Fulbright
      scholarship; and Mr. Rosati, who also won a Fulbright, attended Princeton
      University in 1987. </FONT></FONT></P>
    
    <P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Apr. 22</B> An
      investigation into whether former Prime Minister Jozef Oleksy spied for
      Moscow is closed for &#147;insufficient evidence&#148; and lack of &#147;direct
      proof&#148; against Mr. Oleksy. Mr. Oleksy, a friend and party ally of new
      President Aleksander Kwasniewski, resigned in January. </FONT></FONT></P>
    
    <P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Apr. 25</B>
      Saying that it lacks jurisdiction, a provincial court in Gdansk drops its
      case against former Polish leader Gen. Wojciech Jaruzelski. Gen.
      Jaruzelski has been held responsible for the deaths of 44 anti-Communism
      protesters shot by security forces in 1970 when he was Defense Minister.
      </FONT></FONT></P>
    
    <P ALIGN="center"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="4"><B><I>Poland/Russia
      </I></B></FONT></FONT></P>
    
    <P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Apr. 9</B> In
      his first visit to Russia as Poland's President, President Aleksander
      Kwasniewski meets with Russian President Boris Yeltsin. The two presidents
      fail to settle their differences over NATO's expansion plans as Mr.
      Kwasniewski reiterates Poland's desire to join NATO despite Russia's
      opposition. </FONT></FONT></P>
    
    <P ALIGN="center"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="4"><B><I>Slovakia
      </I></B></FONT></FONT></P>
    
    <P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Apr. 9</B> At
      the urging of the U.S. and the European Union, Slovak President Michal Kov&aacute;c
      vetoes a law supported by Prime Minister Vladimir Meciar's government and
      approved by parliament that bans rallies &#147;deemed to subvert the
      country's constitutional system, territorial integrity or defenses.&#148;
      Although parliament can override the veto, it is unlikely to do so given
      the opposition at home and abroad (critics denounce &#160;it as
      Communist-style legislation). </FONT></FONT></P>
    
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       </P>
    
    <P ALIGN="center"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="4"><B><I>Russia
      </I></B></FONT></FONT></P>
    
    <P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Apr. 4</B>
      Communist members of parliament prepare a platform for the June
      presidential election that could appeal to Communists and non-Communists
      alike by drafting a bill favoring heavy state intervention in the economy.
      The bill also curtails pro-market reforms and rejects key measures that
      were adopted at the IMF's insistence (the IMF recently granted Russia a
      $10.1 billion loan). </FONT></FONT></P>
    
    <P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Apr. 13</B>
      Having collected the required one million voter signatures, former
      President Mikhail Gorbachev qualifies to be on the ballot for the June
      presidential election. Mr. Gorbachev has little chance of winning,
      however, since &#160;his stand in nationwide polls is at about 1%. </FONT></FONT></P>
    
    <P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Apr. 15</B> U.S.
      spy satellites spot the construction of a &#147;mammoth underground
      military complex in the Ural Mountains&#148; served by a railroad, a
      highway and thousands of workers. According to senior Pentagon officials,
      the project appears to be defensive in nature and may be a command and
      control center for nuclear weapons as well as a bunker for military
      leaders. </FONT></FONT></P>
    
    <P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Apr. 18</B>
      President Boris Yeltsin restores by decree the red banner, embossed with a
      gold star (instead of the Communist hammer and sickle) as a national
      emblem. The banner will be unfurled along with the Russian tricolor flag
      at patriotic ceremonies. </FONT></FONT></P>
    
    <P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Apr. 29</B> Two
      rivals in the Russian presidential campaign, Grigory Yavlinsky&#151;a
      well-known reform-minded economist&#151;and Aleksandr Lebed&#151;a former
      general who has the support of conservatives&#151;try to negotiate an
      alliance that would unite both economic reform supporters and
      conservatives eager to restore national order. Opponents of it say that
      the alliance cannot win and that it will withdraw vital support from
      President Yeltsin in his race against Communist candidate Gennadi
      Zyuganov. </FONT></FONT></P>
    
    <P ALIGN="center"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="4"><B><I>Russia/Chechnya
      </I></B></FONT></FONT></P>
    
    <P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Apr. 1</B> After
      two weeks of continuous assault on Chechnya, Russian forces carry out an
      order by President Boris Yeltsin to stop the fighting. Mr. Yeltsin intends
      to open negotiations with Chechen leader Dzhokhar Dudayev. </FONT></FONT></P>
    
    <P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Apr. 5</B>
      Despite President Yeltsin's cease-fire order on Apr. 1, Russian soldiers
      and rebels keep fighting. </FONT></FONT></P>
    
    <P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Apr. 8</B>
      Russian forces attack Vedeno and Dargo, two villages in southeastern
      Chechnya that are important bases for the Chechen rebels. </FONT></FONT></P>
    
    <P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Apr. 13</B>
      Through mediators, President Yeltsin tries to arrange a meeting with
      Chechen leader Dzhokhar Dudayev. Meanwhile, Russian attacks continue in
      southwestern Chechnya. </FONT></FONT></P>
    
    <P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Apr. 15</B>
      Russia pulls out two battalions from Chechnya as part of President
      Yeltsin's latest peace plan, but the fighting continues nonetheless.
      </FONT></FONT></P>
    
    <P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Apr. 23</B> A
      Chechen official reports that Chechen leader Dzhokhar Dudayev was killed
      during a Russian rocket attack; but another Chechen aide contradicts the
      report, insisting that Mr. Dudayev is alive and well. </FONT></FONT></P>
    
    <P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Apr. 24</B>
      Vowing to carry on the fight against Russian troops, Chechen rebels
      confirm the death of Dzhokhar Dudayev. Zelimkahn Yandarbiyev, the Chechen
      rebel vice-president who has a reputation for being a hard-liner on the
      independence issue, becomes Mr. Dudayev's successor. </FONT></FONT></P>
    
    <P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Apr. 27</B> Alla
      Dudayeva, the widow of slain Chechen leader Dzhokhar Dudayev, is planning
      a peace mission to Moscow in order to stop the fighting in Chechnya.
      </FONT></FONT></P>
    
    <P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><STRONG>A</STRONG><B>pr.
      29</B> Unconfirmed reports indicate that Zelimkahn Yandarbiyev, the new
      Chechen leader, has been killed in a fight with other separatists. </FONT></FONT></P>
    
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    <P ALIGN="center"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="4"><B><I>Bosnia
      </I></B></FONT></FONT></P>
    
    <P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Apr. 2</B> War
      crimes investigators spot evidence of extensive soil tampering when they
      start examining a large field near Srebrenica where hundreds of Muslims
      are thought to have been killed and buried last July, suggesting that
      bodies were removed from the site. According to eyewitnesses, Bosnian Serb
      military commander Gen. Ratko Mladic supervised the killings there.
      </FONT></FONT></P>
    
    <P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Apr. 6</B> Serbs
      renege on an agreement reached on Apr. 5 between Serbs, Croats, and
      Muslims to release all prisoners (except those suspected of war crimes).
      While the Bosnian government and Bosnian Croats free prisoners, the
      Bosnian Serbs fail to release the 16 captives they had agreed to free.
      </FONT></FONT></P>
    
    <P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Apr. 11</B> The
      Bosnian Serbs refuse to attend a two-day international conference under
      one single delegation with Bosnia's Muslims and Croats, stating that they
      will participate only if they can have a separate delegation. Starting on
      Apr. 12 in Brussels, the conference is intended to raise money for
      rebuilding Bosnia. </FONT></FONT></P>
    
    <P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Apr. 12</B>
      Following a December 1995 meeting in which $600 million were raised for
      the reconstruction of Bosnia, 55 countries meet in Brussels to try to
      raise an additional $1.2 billion for economic aid to Bosnia in 1996. But
      U.S. and European officials disagree on whether the Serb leadership should
      get any money: Europeans want to &#147;extend a hand to everyone,
      including the Serbs,&#148; while Americans say that none of the $200
      million in U.S. funds earmarked for Bosnia are intended for
      Serbian-controlled areas. </FONT></FONT></P>
    
    <P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Apr. 13</B>
      Governments and institutions pledge $1.23 billion more in aid to rebuild
      Bosnia. The money will go to repair water and sewer networks, roads,
      bridges, and houses in Bosnia and also start small businesses. </FONT></FONT></P>
    
    <P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Apr. 14</B> In
      an official statement, NATO says that aerial intelligence photographs of
      the field near Srebrenica where hundreds of Muslims may be buried show
      that the field was not tampered with under their watch (war crimes
      investigators reported tampering on Apr. 2). NATO agreed in late January
      to monitor 200 sites that are thought to be graves. </FONT></FONT></P>
    
    <P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Apr. 17</B> In
      the second accident of its kind since NATO forces arrived in Bosnia in
      December, two NATO peacekeepers are killed and two others wounded when
      their car hits a land mine near Tuzla. </FONT></FONT></P>
    
    <P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Apr. 19</B> With
      the Dayton Accord stipulating that elections must take place in Bosnia
      within nine months of the accord, i.e., by Sept. 14, the international
      committee in charge of organizing the elections estimates their cost at
      $153 million, on top of the $1.2 billion in foreign aid already pledged
      for Bosnia's reconstruction. </FONT></FONT></P>
    
    <P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Apr. 21</B>
      Since the Dayton Accord guarantees that the 2.4 million Bosnians who have
      been displaced by the war in Bosnia have the right to return home, many
      refugees are trying to go back. But NATO and U.N. observers report that
      refugees are facing opposition from officials and from the people
      currently occupying their homes. </FONT></FONT></P>
    
    <P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Apr. 24</B>
      Serbian Gen. Djordje Djukic, the highest ranking of four suspects held by
      the war crimes tribunal in The Hague, is released from U.N. custody after
      being found to be terminally ill. Gen. Djukic had been charged with
      planning and directing the 30-month bombardment of Sarajevo. </FONT></FONT></P>
    
    <P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Apr. 25</B> At
      the request of Gen. George Joulwan, commander of NATO forces in Europe,
      U.S. and other peacekeeping forces will remain in Bosnia for at least one
      month after the Dec. 20 pullout deadline. Gen. Joulwan wants to maintain a
      &#147;significant force there right up until the last day.&#148; </FONT></FONT></P>
    
    <P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Apr. 28</B>
      There is no effective mechanism to enforce the Dayton Accord's promise
      that refugees can return to their homes in areas controlled by their
      enemies. As a result, Bosnian Serb officials have been blocking non-Serbs
      from areas within their control and Muslims have threatened to forcibly
      get their homes back. The tension has led NATO forces to bar Muslim
      refugees from returning home in Serbian areas in order to avoid violence.
      </FONT></FONT></P>
    
    <P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Apr. 29</B>
      Three Muslims are killed and dozens are wounded in angry confrontations
      near Sarajevo between Muslims seeking to return home and Serbs who do not
      want them to return. </FONT></FONT></P>
    
    <P ALIGN="center"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="4"><B><I>Bosnia/Croatia
      </I></B></FONT></FONT></P>
    
    <P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Apr. 24</B>
      According to Croatian officials, the Bosnian government is sending small
      commandos who are part of the Bosnian intelligence service and trained in
      Bosnia by Iranian specialists to kill or &#147;capture enemies it has
      branded as war criminals&#148; in Croatia. Croatia has sent a letter of
      protest and requested that the organization be disbanded since an &#147;exclusively
      Muslim intelligence agency&#148; within the Muslim-Croat Federation
      violates the terms of the Dayton Accord. </FONT></FONT></P>
    
    <P ALIGN="center"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="4"><B><I>Croatia/Iran
      </I></B></FONT></FONT></P>
    
    <P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>NY Times, Apr.
      24</B> &#160;It is disclosed that, in order to tighten its links with
      Croatia, Iran signed a secret arms cooperation agreement with Croatia in
      December 95 and that Washington blocked it after learning of it that same
      month. Throughout the war, Croatia allowed Iran to smuggle arms to Bosnia
      (which was strapped by the arms embargo) through Croatian territory in
      exchange for one third of all arms for their own use. The smuggling ended
      in January as planned by the Dayton Accord. </FONT></FONT></P>
    
    <P ALIGN="center"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="4"><B><I>Yugoslavia/Macedonia
      </I></B></FONT></FONT></P>
    
    <P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Apr. 8</B>
      Yugoslavia&#151;i.e., Serbia and Montenegro&#151;establishes diplomatic
      relations with Macedonia, its southern neighbor, thereby giving up any
      territorial claim on the former Yugoslav republic. </FONT></FONT></P>
    
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    <P ALIGN="center"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="4"><B><I>Arms
      Control Agreement on the Sale of Conventional Weapons</I></B></FONT><FONT SIZE="5"><B><I>
      </I></B></FONT></FONT></P>
    
    <P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Apr. 4</B> In
      Vienna, the first meeting of 31 nations to start executing a new accord
      controlling the sale of conventional weapons is slowed by Russia's
      resistance. The accord, which aims to control sales which can lead to
      destabilization (such as sales to Iran, Irak, Libya, or North Korea),
      requires early notification of such sales, that is, at the time the export
      license is issued; but Russia wants to delay the notification. </FONT></FONT></P>
    
    <P ALIGN="center"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="4"><B><I>Group of
      Seven Summit Meeting </I></B></FONT></FONT></P>
    
    <P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Apr. 20 </B>In
      Moscow, the leaders of major industrialized nations and President Boris
      Yeltsin call for a total ban on nuclear tests (including small experiments
      and &#147;peaceful&#148; explosions for construction purposes) to be
      negotiated by September. They also call for the prevention of nuclear
      smuggling through the sharing of intelligence and collaboration on customs
      and law enforcement. Finally, the leaders warmly endorse Mr. Yeltsin, who
      is facing a difficult re-election campaign. </FONT></FONT></P>
    
    <P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Apr. 21</B>
      President Clinton and President Yeltsin celebrate the &#147;American-Russian
      partnership&#148; at a news conference following their meeting in the
      Kremlin. They report progress on several arms control areas (such as
      progress in distinguishing between anti-ballistic missiles systems limited
      by the 1972 ABM Treaty and theater missile defenses, which are not), and
      minimize their political differences on areas of disagreement (the war in
      Chechnya, the NATO plan to expand eastward, and Russia's sales of nuclear
      technology to Iran). </FONT></FONT></P>
    
    <P ALIGN="center"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="4"><B><I>Russia/Kazakstan/Oman
      </I></B></FONT></FONT></P>
    
    <P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Apr. 28</B>
      Russia, Kazakstan and Oman agree on a new accord to build a major oil
      pipeline that will connect Kazakstan's large Tengiz oil field to a Russian
      port to be built on the Black Sea. Eight Western, Russian, and Kazak oil
      companies will be involved in the project, which should cost about $1.2
      billion. </FONT></FONT></P>
    
    <P ALIGN="center"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="4"><B><I>Russia/Paris
      Club </I></B></FONT></FONT></P>
    
    <P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Apr. 29</B> In
      Paris, Russia and its 18 creditor nations, known as the Paris Club
      (including Germany, France, Italy, U.S.A., other European countries, plus
      Australia, Canada, and Japan), agree to extend by seven years Russia's
      repayment of an accumulated debt of $40 billion. The plan would give
      Russia up to 25 years to pay off its debts. </FONT></FONT></P>
    
    <P ALIGN="center"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="4"><B><I>Russia/United
      States </I></B></FONT></FONT></P>
    
    <P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>NY Times, Apr.
      20</B> After the breakup of the Soviet Union, porous borders, combined
      with weakened government controls, growing criminal gangs, and declining
      nuclear scientists' wages, have created a new risk of nuclear materials
      thefts. As a result, Washington and Moscow have been working toward theft
      prevention and have agreed to improve security at 30 locations accounting
      for 70% of the places where Russia stores bomb-grade materials. At the
      current levels of funding, however, at least six years will be required to
      carry out the planned security improvements. </FONT></FONT></P>
    
    <P ALIGN="center"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="4"><B><I>United
      Nations </I></B></FONT></FONT></P>
    
    <P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Apr. 1</B>
      Constrained by the first no-growth budget in its 50-year existence, the
      U.N. plans to cut its operating expenses by $250 million by the end of
      1997. The cuts will affect personnel, reports and publications, policy
      analyses, and construction and repair costs. </FONT></FONT></P>
    
    <P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Apr. 29</B> Only
      four months into its budget year, the U.N. says that it has no money left
      for daily operating expenses and will have to borrow from cash intended
      for peacekeeping. The U.N. is owed $2.8 billion in unpaid assessments,
      with the U.S. owing $1.5 billion. </FONT></FONT></P>
    
    <P ALIGN="center"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="4"><B><I>World Bank
      </I></B></FONT></FONT></P>
    
    <P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Apr. 17</B> The
      U.S. and the European Union have turned over much of the reconstruction
      effort in Bosnia to the World Bank, an institution created in 1944 under
      U.S. leadership to help rebuild war-torn Europe which now specializes in
      helping Third-World countries. The bank, which will oversee a $5.1 billion
      reconstruction project in Bosnia, has been criticized in the past for its
      inability to move quickly and for being ineffective in similar projects.
      </FONT></FONT> </P>
    
    <P ALIGN="left"><FONT SIZE="+1"><A HREF="April_1996.htm">Go to top of
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    <P ALIGN="left"><FONT SIZE="+1"><FONT COLOR="#000000">Copyright &copy;
      Center for Strategic Decision Research 1997</FONT></FONT></P>
    
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