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<p align="center" class="style100"><span class="style90"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17"><span class="style74"><span class="style31 style101"><span class="MsoNormal style78"><span class="style18 style117"><span class="style36 style26"><span style=""><span style='mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight:bold'><span class="style18 style117"><span style=""><span style=""><span style='mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight:bold'><span style="font-family: color: #336699"Times New Roman", Times, serif; font-style: italic;"><span style=""><span style=""><span style='mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight:bold'><span style=""><span style=""><span style='mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight:bold'><span style=""><span style=""><span style='mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight:bold'><span style="font-family: color: #336699"times new roman", times, serif; font-style: italic;"><span style=""><span style=""><span style='mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight:bold'><span style=""><span style=""><span style='mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt; 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font-style: italic;"><span style=""><span style=""><span style='mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight:bold'><span style=""><span style=""><span style='mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight:bold'><span style=""><span style=""><span style='mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight:bold'><span style="font-family: color: #336699"times new roman", times, serif; font-style: italic;"><span style=""><span style=""><span style='mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight:bold'><span style=""><span style=""><span style='mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight:bold'><span style=""><span style=""><span style='mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight:bold'><span style="font-family: color: #336699"times new roman", times, serif; font-style: italic;"><span style=""><span style=""><span style='mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight:bold'><span style=""><span style=""><span style='mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight:bold'><span style=""><span style=""><span style='mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt; 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<p align="center" class="style100">
<BASEFONT SIZE="3">
<span class="style108">The Balkans, Afghanistan, and the
Control of Nuclear Armaments</span></p>
<P ALIGN="CENTER" class="style106">
Ambassador Jaromir Novotny<br>
Czech Ambassador to India </P>
<P ALIGN="center" class="style100">
<span class="style105">OPENING REMARKS</span></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT" class="style79"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17"> It is difficult to speak on the last day of the workshop, when almost everything
has been said. We have heard how successful we are in the Balkans, how
smoothly NATO and EU enlargement are progressing, how the general situation
in Europe is quite good, how cooperation between the West and Russia is
on the right path, how the situation in Iraq is not ideal but will be better,
and how we are doing well so far in Afghanistan. I would like to make some
remarks that go in a slightly different direction.
</FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="CENTER" class="style105">
<B>CURRENT ISSUES IN THE BALKANS</B></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT" class="style100"> <FONT COLOR="#1f1a17"><span class="style79">I do not agree that we are truly successful in the Balkans. What have we
achieved after more than 15 years of engagement? Yes, the people of Bosnia,
Kosovo, and Serbia have stopped killing each other, and this is a success.
But what else have we achieved? We have not solved the basic problem: the
statehood of these territories has not been defined. We have created two
international protectorates (Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Kosovo) and one
artificial state called Serbia and Montenegro, which their inhabitants do
not like. We have given them deadlines to solve their problems, but they
have all been postponed. And Bosnian politicians, like their counterparts
in Kosovo and Serbia and Montenegro, are now going ahead only because of
heavy pressure from the international community.
</span></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT" class="style79"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17"> The last ethnic riots in Kosovo have shown us what Kosovars think about
human rights. The international structures in Kosovo were surprised and
completely unprepared for the eruption of atrocities. Kosovo is actually
governed by local mafia organizations, and the society there is one of
the most corrupt in the world. To make matters even worse, the international
organizations in Kosovo are becoming more and more corrupt as well.
</FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT" class="style79"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17"> What is the future for Kosovo? What are we proposing to its inhabitants?
Are the people there still part of Serbia and Montenegro, which, according
to all valid U.N. resolutions, they are? Is Kosovo a territory with special
status, different currency, a different system of taxation and law, protected
by the U.N. and on the path to independence? Or will Kosovo be united with
Albania? Nobody is prepared to define its future status.
</FONT></P>
<P class="style79"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17">Bosnia and Herzegovina is another difficult situation. It is an international
protectorate that consists of two state entities (perhaps three—what is
the status of Brcko?) and three national entities. The Dayton Agreement
froze all its problems, making the main obstacle to progress the relationships
inside. This protectorate is also corrupt at all levels of society.
</FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT" class="style79"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17"> There, as well as in Kosovo, the very fragile peace cannot be sustained
without huge financial support from the international community and without
a visible military presence. How long will our countries be ready to pay
for it?
</FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT" class="style79"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17"> Serbia and Montenegro were forced together. The deadline for solving the
problems of their being together is 2005. But in the time they have had
so far, nothing has happened. They have two different economic systems,
and they use two different currencies. Next year shall we give them another
deadline? We are not solving the problems, we are only postponing the solutions
with more deadlines. In fact we are preserving the status quo. But for
how long?
</FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="CENTER" class="style100">
<FONT COLOR="#1f1a17"><span class="style105"><B>THE “FORGOTTEN WAR” IN AFGHANISTAN</B></span></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT" class="style79"> <FONT COLOR="#1f1a17">Afghanistan looks to me like a forgotten war. Karzai has control only over
Kabul and only during the day. Warlords continue to keep their private
armies. Drug production is at a record level, with an estimated value of
U.S. $25 billion. Do we have this amount of money to replace the warlords’ profits? Some are saying that nobody is rich enough to buy Afghanistan.
The warlords are on your side only until the moment they are paid, and
if somebody offers them more, they will be loyal to him.
</FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="CENTER" class="style100">
<FONT COLOR="#1f1a17"><span class="style105">THE NEED FOR NUCLEAR ARMAMENT CONTROL</span></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT" class="style100 style104"> <FONT COLOR="#1f1a17">It is a great paradox that the nuclear armaments control mechanism has
been the only victim of the end of the Cold War. At the close of the 1990s,
nuclear states other than the U.S. and Russia had only 5 percent of the nuclear arsenals. Today they have 20 percent, and during the next 10 years
they will have 60 to 70 percent. But no one is interested in this. No one
is counting how many nuclear players we have now. The public was much more
interested in this issue 10 years ago, but now it is not. And the U.S.
and Russia aren’t interested in each other’s arsenal either. Their interest
is on the same level as France’s interest in the nuclear arsenal of the
U.K. But both powers, the U.S. and Russia, will have to renovate, change,
and modernize their nuclear arsenals during the next few years, because,
due to their age, they are becoming obsolete.
</FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT" class="style100"><span class="style104"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17"> Today we have no effective international agreement that acts as a nuclear
armaments control mechanism. And if we cannot satisfactorily solve the
problems of the nuclear programs of North Korea and Iran, then we can expect
to see an eruption of efforts to obtain nuclear arms, from Japan to Saudi
Arabia.
</FONT></span></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT" class="style100"><span class="style94"><span class="style71"><span class="style97"><a href="file:///C|/Documents%20and%20Settings/Roger%20Baylon/Application%20Data/Macromedia/Dreamweaver%20MX%202004/Configuration/ServerConnections/index.html">csdr home page</a>| <a href="#top">top of page </a>| </span><span class="style99">©2003, 2004 center for strategic decision research</span></span></span></P>
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