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<title>Center for Strategic Decision Research, Peter Struck, Michele Alliot-Marie, General George Joulwan, SACEUR, General James L. Jones, SHAPE, NATO, EU, BDLI, ILA, EADS, Northrop Grumman, Under Secretary Michael Wynne, Assistant Secretary Linton Wells, Ambassador William Burns, NATO Military Committee Chairman General Harald Kujat, General Dynamics, Boeing, Global Security Terrorism, Iraq, Afghanistan, Rainer Hertrich, David Stafford</title>
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<td width="66" height="68"><p><img src="../2004book/logo-kevin-web.jpg" width="60" height="66"></p> </td>
<td width="618"><div align="center"><span class="style5">16th International Workshop on Global Security - Budapest, 20-23 June 1999 <br>
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<div class="style7" id="pageName"> P</div>
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<p align="center" class="style17"><strong>Table of Contents:</strong></p>
<p class="style18"><a href="/99Book/weissingerbaylon.htm">Workshop Chairman Roger Weissinger-Baylon </a></p>
<p align="center" class="style18"><strong>Part 1</strong></p>
<p align="left" class="style18"><span class="style217"><strong><a href="/99Book/goncz.htm">Hungarian President Arpad Goncz </a></strong></span><span class="style217"><a href="/99Book/kwasniewski.htm">Polish President Aleksander Kwasniewski </a><a href="/99Book/adamkus.htm">Lithuanian President Valdas Adamkus</a></span><span class="style217"><a href="/99Book/solana.htm">NATO Secretary General Javier Solana </a><a href="/99Book/orban.htm">Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban </a></span><span class="style217"><a href="/99Book/dzurinda.htm">Slovakian Prime Minister Mikulas Dzurinda </a></span><span class="style217"><a href="/99Book/majko.htm">Albanian Prime Minister Pandeli Majko </a><a href="/99Book/hamre.htm">US Dep Secretary of Defense John Hamre </a></span></p>
<p align="center" class="style18"><strong>Part 2</strong></p>
<p align="left" class="style18"><span class="style217"><a href="/99Book/vetchy.htm">Czech Defense Minister Vladimir Vetchy </a><span class="style222"><a href="/99Book/haekkerup.htm">Danish Defense Minister Hans Haekkerup </a><a href="/99Book/szabo.htm">Hungarian Defense Minister Janos Szabo</a></span></span><span class="style217"><span class="style222"><a href="/99Book/bodry.htm">Luxembourgan Defense Minister Alex Bodry </a><a href="/99Book/onyszkiewicz.htm">Polish Defense Minister Janusz Onyszkiewicz </a></span></span><span class="style219"><a href="/99Book/henderson.htm">UK Minister of State for the Armed Forces Doug Henderson </a><a href="/99Book/fasslabend.htm">Austrian Defense Minister Werner Fasslabend</a></span><span class="style219"><a href="/99Book/clark.htm">SACEUR Gen Wesley Clark</a><a href="/99Book/ellis.htm">CINC AFSOUTH Adm James Ellis</a><a href="/99Book/spiering.htm">CINC AFCENT Gen Joachim Spiering </a><a href="/99Book/skjostad.htm">AFNORTHWEST Chief of Staff Gen Odd Vincent Skjostad </a></span></p>
<p align="center" class="style18"><strong>Part 3</strong></p>
<p class="style18"><span class="style219"><a href="/99Book/geremek.htm">Polish Foreign Minister Bronislaw Geremek </a><a href="/99Book/mihailova.htm">Bulgarian Foreign Minister Nadezha Mihailova </a><a href="/99Book/kukan.htm">Slovakian Foreign Minister Eduard Kukan </a></span><span class="style209"><span class="style197"><a href="/99Book/babiuc.htm">Romanian Defense Minister Victor Babiuc</a></span><span #invalid_attr_id="10px 0px 0px 10px"><span class="style197"><a href="/99Book/luik.htm">Estonian Defense Minister Juri Luik </a></span></span></span><span class="style219"><a href="/99Book/birkavs.htm">Latvian Foreign Minister Valdis Birkavs </a></span></p>
<p align="center" class="style18"><strong>Part 4</strong></p>
<p class="style18"><span class="style219"><a href="/99Book/gansler.htm">US Under Secretary of Defense Jacques Gansler</a></span><span class="style219"><a href="/99Book/franklin.htm">BMDO Dep Director Gen Peter Franklin </a><a href="/99Book/herzog.htm">Israeli Defense Forces Strat Planning Head Gen Michael Herzog</a></span><span class="style219"><a href="/99Book/hoeper.htm">US Assist Secretary of the Army Paul Hoeper</a></span></p>
<p align="center" class="style18"><strong>Part 5</strong></p>
<p class="style18"><span class="style219"><a href="/99Book/pereiradospenedos.htm">Portuguese State Secretary Jose Rodrigues Pereira dos Penedos </a></span><span class="style219"><a href="/99Book/weston.htm">British Aerospace Chief Executive John Weston </a><a href="/99Book/zappa.htm">Alenia Aerospazio President Giorgio Zappa </a></span><span class="style219"><a href="/99Book/fernandez.htm">CASA President Alberto Fernandez </a><a href="/99Book/josefsson.htm">Celsius AB CEO Lars Josefsson </a><a href="/99Book/boyle.htm">Boeing Vice President Gen Jean Boyle </a><a href="/99Book/denker.htm">Daimler-Chrysler Aerospace Vice President Wolf-Peter Denker </a><a href="/99Book/crosby.htm">Northrop-Grumman Vice President Ralph Crosby </a><a href="/99Book/pellicci.htm">Oracle Vice President Jack Pellicci </a></span></p>
<p align="center" class="style18"><strong>Part 6</strong></p>
<p class="style18"><span class="style219"><a href="/99Book/cutileiro.htm">WEU Secretary General Jose Cutileiro </a></span><span class="style219"><a href="/99Book/tarasyuk.htm">Ukranian Foreign Min Borys Tarasyuk </a></span><span class="style219"><a href="/99Book/portillo.htm">UK Fmr Sec of State for Defense Michael Portillo </a></span><span class="style219"></span><br>
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<h1 align="center" class="style196 style26">The Challenges to Stability for NATO’s Northwestern Region</h1>
<p align="center" class="style8 style27">Lieutenant General Odd Vincent Skjøstad<BR>
Chief of Staff, Allied Forces Northwestern Europe</p>
<P ALIGN="LEFT"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17"><span class="style8"><span class="style24"><FONT COLOR="#000000">I</FONT> feel both privileged and honored to have this opportunity to address the 16th NATO Workshop on behalf of my commander-in-chief, Sir John Cheshire. This is a grand venue, and seldom have I encountered such an impressive audience of politico-military competence. Previous speakers presented and discussed a number of crucial ACE-wide challenges to stability. I would like to focus on three particular challenges that cause some concern for us in the Northwestern Region. </span></span></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="CENTER" class="style8 style27"> <B>A COMMON BORDER WITH RUSSIA</B></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT" class="style8 style24"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17"> The first challenge stems from the fact that, geopolitically, Russia is the largest nation in our Area of Interest (AOI)—you are well aware of the common border between Norway and Russia. From a Central or Southern European perspective, and with the current sharp focus on the Balkans, we are all keeping our attention on that 196-km common border in Finnmark Northern Norway. This border remains a major factor in the instability assessment made by my colleagues in Norway. For the same reasons, all our Partner nations in the Baltic are very sensitive to the importance that their individual and collective relationships with Russia have in the context of regional stability/instability. </FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="CENTER" class="style8 style27"> <B>NATO’S INFLUENCE ON REGIONAL STABILITY</B></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT" class="style8 style24"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17"> The second concern our region has is how much NATO in general, and my region in particular, can actually do to positively influence regional stability. Four possibilities that we believe might actually trigger instability in our AOI are: </FONT></P>
<UL class="style8 style24">
<LI><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17"> Bilateral border disputes </FONT></LI>
<LI><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17"> Disturbances over minority rights </FONT></LI>
<LI><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17"> Internal political instability </FONT></LI>
<LI><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17"> Disputes over offshore resources. </FONT></LI>
</UL>
<P ALIGN="LEFT" class="style8 style24"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17"> Potential triggers of this sort cause us the greatest concern because we have little influence over them and because they could trigger regional instability rapidly. Such instability, in turn, might result in a request by a long-standing Partner nation for NATO military assistance. In short, we might be unable to prevent a fuse from being lit, but we might be invited to help contain the ensuing explosion. </FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="CENTER" class="style8 style27"> <B>The Northwestern Region’s Relationship with Russia</B></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT" class="style8 style24"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17"> Because I am SACEUR’s custodian of the defense guarantee in the Northwestern Region, I want to make three specific points about our relationship with the Russian military. </FONT></P>
<UL class="style8 style24">
<LI><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17"> First and foremost, Russia poses no military threat to the Northwestern Region. </FONT></LI>
<LI><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17"> We go to great lengths to ensure that the Russian military is fully aware of all PFP activities in our Region, why we are carrying these activities out, and who is involved. In early June, for instance, the “in the spirit of PFP” exercise “Barents Peace” was successfully completed in Finnmark. The Russians participated in the planning of this event. </FONT></LI>
<LI><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17"> The inescapable fact remains that Russia retains sufficient military hardware in the LMD to make life very uncomfortable for any nation in the Northwestern Region. </FONT></LI>
</UL>
<P ALIGN="LEFT" class="style8 style24"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17"> We like to think that our activities are regarded as transparent, militarily sensible, and in the best interests of regional stability. We have little doubt that we would be firmly told by the other party if they felt that the situation was otherwise. One recent example of a concrete confidence-building measure is the establishment of a direct “hotline” between Commander Armed Forces North Norway Vice Admiral Siorgen and Admiral Popov, who commands the Northern Fleet in Murmansk. </FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="CENTER" class="style8 style27"> <B>RUSSIA’S NUCLEAR WEAPONS</B></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT" class="style8 style24"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17"> The third and last challenge to stability that I would like to highlight is connected with the substantial number of Tactical Nuclear Weapons that Russia still retains in the Leningrad Military District. Although we are not at all concerned that Russia would contemplate using these weapons against the nations in our region, we do fear the consequences if one or more of these assets is stolen. In the hands of rogue extremists, the potential for triggering instability exists, and this is something we must be prepared to handle. </FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="CENTER" class="style8 style27"> <B>CONCLUDING REMARKS</B></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT" class="style8 style24"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17"> These, then, are some of the issues that could trigger instability in the Northwestern Region. However, let me emphasize that none of them is a threat in the traditional definition of that term, but all of them <I>could</I> occur, and would do so almost certainly with little or no warning. The political and military consequences of NATO involvement in the aftermath of any such occurrences should not be underestimated. </FONT></P>
<p class="style8 style24"> </p>
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