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<td width="66" height="68"><p><img src="../2004book/logo-kevin-web.jpg" width="60" height="66"></p> </td>
<td width="618"><div align="center"><span class="style5">16th International Workshop on Global Security - Budapest, 20-23 June 1999 <br>
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<p align="center" class="style17"><strong>Table of Contents:</strong></p>
<p class="style18"><a href="/99Book/weissingerbaylon.htm">Workshop Chairman Roger Weissinger-Baylon </a></p>
<p align="center" class="style18"><strong>Part 1</strong></p>
<p align="left" class="style18"><span class="style217"><strong><a href="/99Book/goncz.htm">Hungarian President Arpad Goncz </a></strong></span><span class="style217"><a href="/99Book/kwasniewski.htm">Polish President Aleksander Kwasniewski </a><a href="/99Book/adamkus.htm">Lithuanian President Valdas Adamkus</a></span><span class="style217"><a href="/99Book/solana.htm">NATO Secretary General Javier Solana </a><a href="/99Book/orban.htm">Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban </a></span><span class="style217"><a href="/99Book/dzurinda.htm">Slovakian Prime Minister Mikulas Dzurinda </a></span><span class="style217"><a href="/99Book/majko.htm">Albanian Prime Minister Pandeli Majko </a><a href="/99Book/hamre.htm">US Dep Secretary of Defense John Hamre </a></span></p>
<p align="center" class="style18"><strong>Part 2</strong></p>
<p align="left" class="style18"><span class="style217"><a href="/99Book/vetchy.htm">Czech Defense Minister Vladimir Vetchy </a><span class="style222"><a href="/99Book/haekkerup.htm">Danish Defense Minister Hans Haekkerup </a><a href="/99Book/szabo.htm">Hungarian Defense Minister Janos Szabo</a></span></span><span class="style217"><span class="style222"><a href="/99Book/bodry.htm">Luxembourgan Defense Minister Alex Bodry </a><a href="/99Book/onyszkiewicz.htm">Polish Defense Minister Janusz Onyszkiewicz </a></span></span><span class="style219"><a href="/99Book/henderson.htm">UK Minister of State for the Armed Forces Doug Henderson </a><a href="/99Book/fasslabend.htm">Austrian Defense Minister Werner Fasslabend</a></span><span class="style219"><a href="/99Book/clark.htm">SACEUR Gen Wesley Clark</a><a href="/99Book/ellis.htm">CINC AFSOUTH Adm James Ellis</a><a href="/99Book/spiering.htm">CINC AFCENT Gen Joachim Spiering </a><a href="/99Book/skjostad.htm">AFNORTHWEST Chief of Staff Gen Odd Vincent Skjostad </a></span></p>
<p align="center" class="style18"><strong>Part 3</strong></p>
<p class="style18"><span class="style219"><a href="/99Book/geremek.htm">Polish Foreign Minister Bronislaw Geremek </a><a href="/99Book/mihailova.htm">Bulgarian Foreign Minister Nadezha Mihailova </a><a href="/99Book/kukan.htm">Slovakian Foreign Minister Eduard Kukan </a></span><span class="style209"><span class="style197"><a href="/99Book/babiuc.htm">Romanian Defense Minister Victor Babiuc</a></span><span #invalid_attr_id="10px 0px 0px 10px"><span class="style197"><a href="/99Book/luik.htm">Estonian Defense Minister Juri Luik </a></span></span></span><span class="style219"><a href="/99Book/birkavs.htm">Latvian Foreign Minister Valdis Birkavs </a></span></p>
<p align="center" class="style18"><strong>Part 4</strong></p>
<p class="style18"><span class="style219"><a href="/99Book/gansler.htm">US Under Secretary of Defense Jacques Gansler</a></span><span class="style219"><a href="/99Book/franklin.htm">BMDO Dep Director Gen Peter Franklin </a><a href="/99Book/herzog.htm">Israeli Defense Forces Strat Planning Head Gen Michael Herzog</a></span><span class="style219"><a href="/99Book/hoeper.htm">US Assist Secretary of the Army Paul Hoeper</a></span></p>
<p align="center" class="style18"><strong>Part 5</strong></p>
<p class="style18"><span class="style219"><a href="/99Book/pereiradospenedos.htm">Portuguese State Secretary Jose Rodrigues Pereira dos Penedos </a></span><span class="style219"><a href="/99Book/weston.htm">British Aerospace Chief Executive John Weston </a><a href="/99Book/zappa.htm">Alenia Aerospazio President Giorgio Zappa </a></span><span class="style219"><a href="/99Book/fernandez.htm">CASA President Alberto Fernandez </a><a href="/99Book/josefsson.htm">Celsius AB CEO Lars Josefsson </a><a href="/99Book/boyle.htm">Boeing Vice President Gen Jean Boyle </a><a href="/99Book/denker.htm">Daimler-Chrysler Aerospace Vice President Wolf-Peter Denker </a><a href="/99Book/crosby.htm">Northrop-Grumman Vice President Ralph Crosby </a><a href="/99Book/pellicci.htm">Oracle Vice President Jack Pellicci </a></span></p>
<p align="center" class="style18"><strong>Part 6</strong></p>
<p class="style18"><span class="style219"><a href="/99Book/cutileiro.htm">WEU Secretary General Jose Cutileiro </a></span><span class="style219"><a href="/99Book/tarasyuk.htm">Ukranian Foreign Min Borys Tarasyuk </a></span><span class="style219"><a href="/99Book/portillo.htm">UK Fmr Sec of State for Defense Michael Portillo </a></span><span class="style219"></span><br>
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<h1 align="center" class="style196 style26">Kosovo Assessment: Planning for the Next Crisis</h1>
<p align="center" class="style27">The Rt Hon Michael Portillo<BR>
Former Secretary of State for Defense of the United Kingdom</p>
<P ALIGN="LEFT"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17"><span class="style24"><span class="style8">NATO won in Kosovo. Congratulations to all concerned on a great job, and congratulations to Hungary on the part it played. And what a relief! If we are honest with one another, we know it was a very difficult experience; many things were unsatisfactory, we could not be sure of winning, and we certainly did not know when victory would come. </span></span></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="CENTER" class="style8 style28"> <B>LEARNING FROM BOSNIA AND KOSOVO</B></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT" class="style24 style8"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17"> What can we do to make things work better in the future? </FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT" class="style24 style8"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17"> First, let us dare to plan for the next event. Four years ago, when NATO went into Bosnia, we all thought that Kosovo would be next. But we did not adopt or implement a plan to deal with it. Foreign Minister Mihailova of Bulgaria was right when she said that we came too late to avoid a humanitarian tragedy. I was a minister until 1997, so I share in the blame. </FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT" class="style24 style8"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17"> Some people at this Workshop, including Hungarian Prime Minister Órban, have said that Vojvodina will be next. Do we have a plan? Have we decided on a political direction so that we may prepare and therefore perhaps avert another round of killing? Humanitarian considerations apart, it is also much more cost-effective to avoid war than to wage it and later pay for reconstruction. </FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT" class="style24 style8"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17"> In the case of Bosnia, NATO went in promising to withdraw within a year. That promise undermined the process of nation-building. You cannot expect refugees to return home if they think that NATO is here today and gone tomorrow. We have to be ready to commit to Kosovo for the long term—and to Bosnia too—in order to provide their peoples with confidence in a lasting peace. The marginal cost of keeping troops in Kosovo rather than Germany or Britain is a small price to pay. </FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT" class="style24 style8"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17"> We are now in the uncomfortable position of having left open to chance a matter of critical importance to our success. If Mr. Milosevic remains in place, it will be difficult for the refugees to return, unreasonable to ask the Kosovo Albanians to live within the Former Republic of Yugoslavia, and impossible to encourage the men and women who believe in democracy and peace to show themselves above the parapet. In short, we do not know whether Mr. Milosevic will continue in office or not, but if he does when we meet again next year, he may appear as Saddam does today, victorious in defeat. At the least we should arrest Radovan Karadzic and Ratko Mladic. As long as they are free, the people of Republika Srbska will assume that they will be back in power one day. </FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="CENTER" class="style8 style28"> <B>OVERCOMING SHORTFALLS</B></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT" class="style24 style8"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17"> When I was a minister I was struck with the fact that we discussed enlargement and restructuring but did not ask what NATO was there to do and what forces it needed to do it with. General Rupert Smith briefed the Workshop on some dismal facts: the Alliance is short of key capabilities; General Smith has no statement of requirement; and he believes political interference by nations has extended to operational matters. We also heard from Ambassador Vershbow that, unfortunately, the recent EU communiqué on ESDI did not include any reference to NATO’s Defense Capabilities Initiative. </FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT" class="style24 style8"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17"> It seems to me that we ought now to be facing the consequences of the two operations in which we are involved in Kosovo and Bosnia. The NATO Secretary General and SACEUR are in a strong position to define their requirements, including the devolution of the authority necessary to run the operations effectively and to minimize the risk to our servicemen and women. </FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT" class="style24 style8"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17"> I do not know how it is now, but it used to be that at the meetings of Defense Ministers we rushed through agenda items that had to do with requirements, forces, and capabilities as though they were of no interest. If Defense Ministers are not focused on our shortfalls, there is no hope of changing the attitude of member-governments. I was delighted with the presentation here on ballistic missile defense. Both in the Workshop and in NATO generally, we need more hard-edged presentations and discussions about threats and capabilities. </FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="CENTER" class="style8 style28"> <B>THE PARADOX OF ADAPTATION</B></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT" class="style24 style8"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17"> Attending this Workshop, I have been struck by how NATO has adapted. It used to be that NATO was an Alliance based on defending territory and the Article 5 guarantee. Now it says it exists to defend not territory but values. I do not dissent. But to say we will defend values, which may be attacked anywhere—even well out of area, is a very significant increase in our remit. Our aspirations and our rhetoric have expanded as our resources have shrunk. Politicians need to be confronted with this paradox. </FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="CENTER" class="style8 style28"> <B>CONCLUDING REMARKS</B></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT" class="style24 style8"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17"> I would like to conclude with a few wide-ranging points. First, let us not forget the big picture. Although nuclear proliferation continues apace, the media scarcely mentions it. We spent $6 trillion on nuclear deterrence, but it seems we should be spending much more than we do today on buying up nuclear stockpiles and attracting nuclear scientists away from countries that are acquiring nuclear weapons. Former U.S. Secretary of Defense William Perry’s work on preventive defense has made a valuable contribution to this debate. </FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT" class="style24 style8"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17"> Second, China’s reaction to the bombing of its embassy was belligerent and hostile. We must work to prevent confrontation between the U.S. and China, but that situation was a reminder that the future as well as the past may be characterized by Great Power rivalry. </FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT" class="style24 style8"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17"> Last, the Asia-Pacific area looks less stable than it used to, from Korea to Indonesia. It may be that the U.S. will find itself drawn toward its security interests in the Pacific and away from Europe. That would certainly give us Europeans a lot to think about. We would not just need a European Defense Identity, we would actually need a European defense capability.<br>
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