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Preface
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<P ALIGN="LEFT"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" SIZE="2" FACE="Palatino">
<FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" FACE="Palatino" SIZE="2"></FONT><FONT COLOR="#000000" FACE="Palatino" SIZE="7">I</FONT>n the Fall of 1992, the government of Hungary, headed by Prime Minister
 Jozsef Antall, extended a warm invitation to the Center for Strategic Decision
 Research to hold a Workshop in Budapest. This invitation led to the X<FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" FACE="Palatino" SIZE="2"></FONT><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" FACE="Palatino" SIZE="2"></FONT><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" FACE="Palatino" SIZE="1"><SUP>th</SUP></FONT><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" FACE="Palatino" SIZE="2"></FONT><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" FACE="Palatino" SIZE="2">
 NATO Workshop on Political-Military Decision Making in June 1993, the first
 NATO Workshop ever to be welcomed in a former Warsaw Pact country. As Hungarian
 President &#193;rp&#225;d G&#246;ncz noted at the time, the Workshop was to acquire historic
 significance because &#147;we [had] begun thinking together with the former
 other side.&#148; This process of &#147;common thinking and broad exchange of strategic
 views&#148; has continued ever since. </FONT>
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<P ALIGN="LEFT"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" SIZE="2" FACE="Palatino">
Six years later and in the wake of a series of democratic changes throughout
 Central Europe, Hungary, now a full NATO member, repeated its offer to
 host a Workshop. As a result, the XVI<FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" FACE="Palatino" SIZE="2"></FONT><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" FACE="Palatino" SIZE="1"><SUP>th</SUP></FONT><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" FACE="Palatino" SIZE="2"></FONT><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" FACE="Palatino" SIZE="2"> &nbsp;International NATO Workshop was
 held in Budapest, under the patronage of President G&#246;ncz, on 20-23 June
 1999. We want to express our gratitude to President G&#246;ncz and the Hungarian
 government&#151; particularly Prime Minister Viktor Orb&#225;n, Speaker of the Hungarian
 Parliament J&#225;nos &#193;der, Deputy Speaker of the Hungarian National Assembly
 G&#233;za Gyim&#243;thy, Foreign Minister dr. J&#225;nos Martonyi, Defense Minister dr.
 J&#225;nos Szab&#243;, State Secretary for Political Affairs J&#225;nos Homoki, Under-Secretary
 for Policy Lajos Fodor, and Deputy Director General Anna Felkai&#151; for their
 warm</FONT><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" FACE="Palatino" SIZE="2"> welcome and remarkable support of the Workshop. The day-to-day organization
 of the Workshop and arrangements for the Spouses&#146; Program were masterfully
 coordinated by Counsellor dr. G&#225;bor Friss of the Foreign Ministry and,
 in the Defense Ministry, by Mr. Peter Gyila, Ms. Kinga Magyar, Mr. Peter
 Salamon, Mr. Roland Farkas of the NATO Cooperation Department and Mr. Dezs&#246;
 Haj&#243;s, Head of the Information Division. &nbsp;</FONT>
</FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" SIZE="2" FACE="Palatino">
Many other Hungarian government representatives also helped along the way.
 Although we cannot list all their names individually, their important contributions
 and hard work are gratefully acknowledged. Mr. L&#225;szl&#243; Balogh, Head of section
 of the Hungarian National Police, and his team, provided excellent security
 for all participants. We want to thank Budapest Mayor, Mr. G&#225;bor Demszky,
 for hosting the final Workshop luncheon and Szentendre Mayor, Mr. G&#225;bor
 Miakich, for welcoming the spouses and hosting a lunch at the guest house
 of the Prime Minister&#146;s office. The opening reception at the War History
 Museum hosted by Foreign Minister Martonyi and Defense Minister Szab&#243; was
 an opportunity for participants to enjoy a performance by the Honved Hungarian
 Choir ensemble and the Jaszsag Folkloric dance group. At NATO Headquarters
 in Brussels, Ambassador dr. Andr&#225;s Simonyi and Mr. Zoltan Nagy, of the
 Hungarian Mission to NATO, provided helpful advice and coordination.
</FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" SIZE="2" FACE="Palatino">
Ideally located on the Buda hillside of Budapest with a commanding view
 over the Danube river, Pest and the Hungarian Parliament, the Hilton Hotel
 was responsible for the Workshop accommodation and catering. Working as
 a team with the Budapest Hilton on the preparation and execution of the
 Workshop was a rewarding experience. &nbsp;The personal involvement of the hotel
 manager, Dr. Gy&#246;rgy N&#233;medi, combined with his staff&#146;s willingness to be
 flexible and accommodate us in our requirements, were remarkable. We want
 to thank in particular Mr. Bal&#225;zs Kov&#225;cs, Mr. L&#225;szl&#243; P&#243;lik, Mr. G&#233;za Benedek,
 Mr. G&#225;bor Korenchy, Mr. P&#233;ter Zwickl and Ms. Kata Kom&#225;romy for their outstanding
 efforts in helping make the Workshop a success.
</FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" SIZE="2" FACE="Palatino">
Three presidents of countries addressed the participants in Budapest:
 &nbsp;Hungarian President and Workshop Patron &#193;rp&#225;d G&#246;ncz gave a welcoming toast
 in the Hunter Room of the Hungarian National Parliament Building. President
 of Poland Aleksander Kwasniewski, the Patron of the 1996 XIII<FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" FACE="Palatino" SIZE="1"><SUP>th </SUP></FONT><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" FACE="Palatino" SIZE="2">NATO Workshop
 in Warsaw and a participant in the Workshops since then, talked about Poland&#146;s
 role within NATO in the changing security environment. Lithuanian President
 Valdas Adamkus expressed his country&#146;s support for NATO&#146;s operations in
 Kosovo and offered Lithuania&#146;s perspective on NATO enlargement and European
 security.</FONT>
</FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" SIZE="2" FACE="Palatino">
After an introduction by Chairman of the NATO Military Committee Admiral
 Guido Venturoni, NATO Secretary General Dr. Javier Solana delivered the
 Keynote Address of the Workshop on the theme of how to restore peace in
 Kosovo, prevent future conflicts and promote stability in Europe. Supreme
 Allied Commander, Europe General Wesley Clark presented a panel&#151;together
 with General Rupert Smith, Deputy Supreme Allied Commander, Europe; Admiral
 James Ellis, Jr., Commander-in-Chief Allied Forces Southern Europe; General
 Joachim Spiering, Commander-in-Chief Allied Forces Central Europe; and
 Lieutenant General Odd Vincent Skj&#248;stad, Chief of Staff Allied Forces Northwestern
 Europe&#151;that offered an impressive analysis of the NATO air campaign. From
 July 1997 to June 1999, General Clark accepted the Center for Strategic
 Decision Research&#146;s invitation &nbsp;to be Workshop Honorary Chairman. Since
 he will be retiring soon, we wish him well in his future endeavors.
</FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" SIZE="2" FACE="Palatino">
In addition to members of the Hungarian government and speakers already
 mentioned above, we would like to express our warmest thanks to the eminent
 contributors who, either individually, in panels, or as chairmen of Workshop
 sessions, presented their views at the Workshop. Their names appear under
 the contributors&#146; list.
</FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" SIZE="2" FACE="Palatino">
Over the years, many organizations have helped the Center for Strategic
 Decision Research fund the NATO Workshop series, which will complete its
 XVII<FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" FACE="Palatino" SIZE="1"><SUP>th</SUP></FONT><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" FACE="Palatino" SIZE="2"> year with the upcoming NATO Workshop in Berlin. We gratefully acknowledge
 the support of the sponsors whose organizations are listed in these Workshop
 <I>Proceedings</I>: Mr. Fred Lawrence (<I>Adaptive Broadband); </I>Ing. Dr. Giorgio Zappa,
 Mr. Pierre Andrea Felici (<I>Alenia Aerospazio); </I>General Jack N. Merritt (Ret.)
 (<I>Association of the United States Army); </I>Major General Peter C. Franklin,
 Dr. J. David Martin, Mr. David Kiefer <I>(Ballistic Missile Defense Organization);
 </I>General Jean Boyle<I>, </I>Mr. Robert Draper, Mr. Clark Little, Mr. Fred Spivey,
 Mr. Nolan Stripling (<I>The Boeing Company); </I>Mr. John Weston, Mr. Simon Carr,
 Prof. Dr. Margarita Mathiopoulos (<I>British Aerospace plc); </I> Mr. Lars Josefsson,
 Mr. Christer Ros <I>(Celsius AB); </I>Mr. Wolf-Peter Denker (<I>Daimler-Chrysler
 Aerospace); </I>Dr. Jay Davis, Dr. Edward M. Ifft, Major General Randall Peat
 (Ret.), Mr. William Daitch (<I>Defense Threat Reduction Agency); </I>General George
 Joulwan, Mr. Michael Wynne (<I>General Dynamics); </I>Mr. Robert Clifford, Mr.
 Scott Harris <I>(Lockheed-Martin); </I>Vice Admiral Sir Nicholas Hill-Norton<I> (Marconi
 Electronic Systems); </I>Mr. John Slaybaugh (<I>The MITRE Corporation); </I>Vice Admiral
 James A. King (<I>NATO Military Comm.); </I>Mr. Andrew Marshall, Mrs. Rebecca
 Bash<I> (Net Assessment); </I>Mr. Ralph Crosby, Mr. Thomas Darcy, Mr. Harry Pearce
 (<I>Northrop-Grumman); </I>Brigadier General Jack Pellicci (Ret.) (<I>Oracle Corporation);
 </I>Mr. Mark N. Clark, Vice Admiral Norman Ray (Ret.), Mr. John Scherer, Mr.
 Chris Shore, Mr. George Speake (<I>Raytheon Systems Company); </I>Lieutenant General
 Paul G. Cerjan (Ret.)<I> (Regent University); </I>Mr. Eugene Gay, Brigadier General
 Tip Osterthaler (Ret.) (<I>SAIC); </I>Major General Ole Fogh (Ret.) (<I>TERMA Elektronik
 AS); </I>Mr. Vince Roske, Colonel<B> </B>Frank Gorenc, Lieutenant Commander David
 Melin (<I>United States Joint Chiefs of Staff).</I></FONT>
</FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" SIZE="2" FACE="Palatino">
Throughout our preparations, the NATO Workshop Advisory Board has played
 an important role in the Workshop by contributing ideas and useful advice
 to the development of the agenda. We appreciate the board members&#146; willingness
 to join and serve as advisers: President of Lithuania Valdas Adamkus; Ambassador
 Fernando Andresen Guimar&#227;es, Permanent Representative of Portugal to NATO;
 Justice Minister of Latvia Dr. Valdis Birkavs; Dr. Manfred Bischoff, Chairman
 of the Board of Management, Daimler-Chrysler Aerospace AG; Ambassador Joachim
 Bitterlich, Former Permanent Representative of Germany to NATO; General
 (Ret.) Jean Boyle, Boeing International Corporation; General Wesley K.
 Clark, Supreme Allied Commander, Europe;<I> </I>Lieutenant General Paul Cerjan<I>,
 </I>President, Regent University; Mr. Ralph Crosby, Corporate Vice President,
 Northrop-Grumman Corporation; Mr. Gordon R. England, Executive Vice President
 of General Dynamics; Air Chief Marshal Sir David Evans (Ret.), Former CinC
 United Kingdom Air Forces;<I> </I>Minister of Defense of Austria Dr. Werner Fasslabend;
 Lieutenant General G. J. Folmer (Ret.), Netherlands Delegate to the NATO
 Workshop; U.S. Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Technology
 Dr. Jacques S. Gansler; Vice Admiral Sir Nicholas Hill-Norton (Ret.), Defense
 Advisor, Marconi Electronic Systems;<I> </I>Mr. Lars Josefsson, President and
 CEO, Celsius AB; General George A. Joulwan (Ret.),<I> </I>Former Supreme Allied
 Commander, Europe;<I> </I>Ambassador Karel Kovanda, Czech Ambassador to NATO;
 General Jack N. Merritt (Ret.), President Emeritus, Association of the
 United States Army;<I> </I>Foreign Minister of Bulgaria Nadezhda Mihailova; General
 Klaus Naumann, Former Chairman of the NATO Military Committee;<I> </I>Minister
 of Defense of Bulgaria Boyko Noev; Vice Admiral John T. Parker (Ret.),
 President, J. T. Parker Associates, Inc.;<I> </I>Mr. Harry Pearce,<I> </I>Vice President,
 Northrop-Grumman International;<I> </I>Mr. John Quilty, Senior Vice President,
 MITRE Corporation; General John Shalikashvili (Ret.), Former Chairman of
 the Joint Chiefs of Staff;<I> </I>General Dieter St&#246;ckmann, Chief of Staff, Supreme
 Headquarters Allied Powers Europe;<I> </I>Foreign Minister of Ukraine Borys Tarasyuk;
 Ambassador of the Czech Republic to the United States Alexandr Vondra;<I>
 </I>Mr. John Weston,<I> </I>Chief Executive, British Aerospace plc;<I> </I>Lieutenant General
 Klaus Wiesmann, German Military Representative to NATO Military Committee;<I>
 </I>Mr. Michael Wynne, Senior Vice President, General Dynamics Corporation;
 Ing. Dr. Giorgio Zappa,<I> </I>President, Alenia Aerospazio. &nbsp;
</FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" SIZE="2" FACE="Palatino">
This year&#146;s international Workshop staff was led by Mary Wu, Chief of Staff,
 and Associate Director and Legal Counsel for the Center for Strategic Decision
 Research. At CSDR in California, Anne Baylon, Workshop Director, Mary Wu
 and Whitney Hischier, Staff Director, worked intensively on the Workshop
 planning. Workshop returnees included Michele Soukin from the Boeing Company,
 Manon van der Horden from the office of the Canadian Military Representative
 to NATO, Ulrik Ahnfelt-Mollerup from Denmark and Caroline Baylon who joined
 us from Italy. From SHAPE, we especially appreciated the help of Lieutenant
 Colonel Harry Driessen, Deputy Chief of Protocol, Staff Sergeant Pete Lyke,
 and Lieutenant Colonel Michael Kammerer, Public Information Officer. Several
 new staff members also contributed greatly to the Workshop&#146;s success, including
 Jean-Pierre Campbell with his work on the Workshop database, Hank Keese
 and Dennis McCartney from DTRA&#146;s field office in Belgium with their help
 on transportation, and Terry Sheffield, also from DTRA&#146;s field office,
 accompanied by his wife, with their help on the Spouses&#146; Program. Lieutenant
 Commander David Melin from the JCS and Captain Rob Vercher also joined
 us from the office of the Secretary of Defense. CSDR wishes to express
 its thanks and gratitude to each person on the 1999 Workshop&#146;s international
 staff for contributing uniquely and invaluably to the Workshop&#146;s success.
</FONT></P>
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<BR>
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<P ALIGN="LEFT"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" SIZE="2" FACE="Palatino">
Dr. Roger Weissinger-Baylon and Anne D. Baylon
</FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" SIZE="2" FACE="Palatino">
Center for Strategic Decision Research
</FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" SIZE="2" FACE="Palatino">
Menlo Park, California
</FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" SIZE="2" FACE="Palatino">
January 2000
</FONT></P>
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