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<title>Center for Strategic Decision Research, Peter Struck, Michele Alliot-Marie, General George Joulwan, SACEUR, General James L. Jones, SHAPE, NATO, EU, BDLI, ILA, EADS, Northrop Grumman, Under Secretary Michael Wynne, Assistant Secretary Linton Wells, Ambassador William Burns, NATO Military Committee Chairman General Harald Kujat, General Dynamics, Boeing, Global Security Terrorism, Iraq, Afghanistan, Rainer Hertrich, David Stafford</title>
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<td width="66" height="68"><p><img src="../2004book/logo-kevin-web.jpg" width="60" height="66"></p> </td>
<td width="618"><div align="center"><span class="style5">15th International Workshop on Global Security - Vienna, 19-23 June 1998<br>
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<p align="center" class="style17"><strong>Table of Contents:</strong></p>
<p align="left" class="style17"><strong><span class="style18"><a href="/98Book/fasslabend.htm">Austrian Defense Minister Werner Fasslabend </a></span></strong><a href="/98Book/weissingerbaylon.htm">Workshop Chairman Roger Weissinger-Baylon </a></p>
<p align="center" class="style18"><strong>Part 1</strong></p>
<p align="left" class="style18"><span class="style217"><strong></strong></span><span class="style217"><a href="/98Book/kwasniewski.htm">Polish President Aleksander Kwasniewski </a><a href="/98Book/klestil.htm">Austrian President Thomas Klestil</a></span><span class="style217"><a href="/98Book/meri.htm">Estonian President Lennart Meri </a><a href="/98Book/adamkus.htm">Lithuanian President Valdas Adamkus </a></span><span class="style217"><a href="/98Book/constantinescu.htm">Romanian President Emil Constantinescu </a></span><span class="style217"><a href="/98Book/drnovsek.htm">Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Drnovsek </a><a href="/98Book/nano.htm">Albanian Prime Minister Fatos Nano </a></span></p>
<p align="center" class="style18"><strong>Part 2</strong></p>
<p align="left" class="style18"><span class="style217"><a href="/98Book/solana.htm">NATO Secretary General Javier Solana </a><span class="style222"><a href="/98Book/clark.htm">SACEUR Gen Wesley Clark </a></span></span><span class="style217"><span class="style222"><a href="/98Book/cheshire.htm">CINC AFNORTHWEST Air Chief Marshal John Cheshire </a><a href="/98Book/spiering.htm">CINC AFCENT Gen Joachim Spiering </a></span></span></p>
<p align="center" class="style18"><strong>Part 3</strong></p>
<p align="left" class="style18"><span class="style219"><a href="/98Book/robertson.htm">UK Secretary of State for Defense George Robertson</a><a href="/98Book/cutileiro.htm">WEU Secretary General Jose Cutileiro</a></span><span class="style219"><a href="/98Book/schussel.htm">Austrian Foreign Minister Wolfgang Schussel</a><a href="/98Book/bodry.htm">Luxembourgan Defense Minister Alex Bodry </a><a href="/98Book/fjaervoll.htm">Norwegian Defense Minister Dag Jostein Fjaervoll</a></span></p>
<p align="center" class="style18"><strong>Part 4</strong></p>
<p class="style18"><span class="style219"><a href="/98Book/tarasyuk.htm">Ukranian Foreign Minister Borys Tarasyuk </a><a href="/98Book/geremek.htm">Polish Foreign Minister Bronislaw Geremek </a><a href="/98Book/novotny.htm">Czech Dep Defense Minister Jaromir Novotny </a></span></p>
<p align="center" class="style18"><strong>Part 5</strong></p>
<p class="style18"><span class="style209"><span class="style197"><a href="/98Book/veigasimao.htm">Portuguese Defense Minister Jose Veiga Simao </a></span><span #invalid_attr_id="10px 0px 0px 10px"><span class="style197"><a href="/98Book/tsohatzopoulos.htm">Greek Defense Minister Apostolos Tsohatzopoulos </a></span></span></span><span class="style219"><a href="/98Book/mihailova.htm">Bulgarian Foreign Minister Nadezha Mihailova</a></span><span class="style219"><a href="/98Book/babiuc.htm">Romanian Defense Minister Victor Babiuc</a></span></p>
<p align="center" class="style18"><strong>Part 6</strong></p>
<p class="style18"><span class="style219"><a href="/98Book/gansler.htm">US Under Secretary of Defense Jacques Gansler </a><a href="/98Book/weston.htm">British Aerospace Chief Executive John Weston </a></span><span class="style219"><a href="/98Book/piller.htm">Daimler-Benz Aerospace Board Member Wolfgang Piller</a></span><span class="style219"><a href="/98Book/sears.htm">Boeing President Michael Sears </a></span><span class="style219"><a href="/98Book/josefsson.htm">Celsius Chief Executive Lars Josefsson</a></span></p>
<p align="center" class="style18"><strong>Part 7</strong></p>
<p class="style18"><span class="style219"><a href="/98Book/naumann.htm">NATO Military Committee Chair Gen Klaus Naumann </a></span><span class="style219"><a href="/98Book/voorhoeve.htm">Dutch Defense Minister Joris Voorhoeve </a><a href="/98Book/lyles.htm">US BMDO Director Lt Gen Lester Lyles </a> <a href="/98Book/portillo.htm">UK Fmr Secretary of State for Defense Michael Portillo </a><a href="/98Book/hamre.htm">US Dep Secretary of Defense John Hamre </a></span> </p>
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<h1 ALIGN="CENTER" class="style8 style24 style24 style26">Challenges of European Security</h1>
<P ALIGN="CENTER" class="style8 style27">The Rt. Hon. Michael Portillo<br>
Former Secretary of State for Defense of the United Kingdom</P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT" class="style8 style24 style24"><FONT COLOR="000000">I would like to look at the question of security in a context that goes beyond NATO and Europe, and also talk about maintaining global order. In particular I want to question the extent to which the foreign policies of NATO members add to or detract from our security. </FONT> </P>
<P ALIGN="CENTER" class="style8 style27"><B>THE NEED FOR CLARITY, CREDIBILITY, AND CERTAINTY</B></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT" class="style8 style24 style24"><FONT COLOR="000000">The world is full of people who want political change and are willing to do violent things for it if we let them. They will do as much as they think they can get away with. They listen to what we say, but especially they watch what we do. Our body language is more eloquent to them than our rhetoric. Recently our body language has not given the impression of fixity of purpose. </FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT" class="style8 style24 style24"><FONT COLOR="000000">NATO’s success has been founded on clarity of purpose, credibility of deterrence, and the certainty of our response. These three Cs could be summarized by a fourth: consistency. </FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT" class="style8 style24 style24"><FONT COLOR="000000">But clarity, credibility, and certainty are more difficult to maintain now. How is it that Milosevic dares to do what he does in Kosovo? Because he doubts our willingness and ability to intervene. It took us years to get our act together on Bosnia and, despite NATO’s great achievements there, we have been talking of leaving ever since we arrived. Mr. Hans van der Broek, the Dutch Foreign Minister, made a wry comment recently. He said, “Some people claim we learned nothing from Bosnia. That is untrue. We learned that Milosevic has an iron will, and he learned that we do not.” </FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT" class="style8 style24 style24"><FONT COLOR="000000">Is it a coincidence that Milosevic turned up the heat since we backed down on Iraq? I think not. NATO Allies were clearly at odds over Iraq. The distinction between the fire and the fire brigade was not obvious to everyone. In any case, no one believed that the U.S. was going to bring down Saddam. If that had been believed, there might have been more support. </FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT" class="style8 style24 style24"><FONT COLOR="000000">The West now appears to be or can be portrayed as muddled and inconsistent. For example, we say we are prepared to put up in the case of Serbia’s internal affairs, but we wouldn’t even speak up over Chechnya. We go to the aid of Albanians, but not of Rwandans or Burundians. France tests nuclear weapons, but India and Pakistan must not. Saddam must observe Security Council resolutions, but Israel need not. </FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT" class="style8 style24 style24"><FONT COLOR="000000">I understand the reasons. But we must also understand that we have lost moral authority. And when Western leaders are involved in scandal, we lose even more. </FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT" class="style8 style24 style24"><FONT COLOR="000000">We seem to have taken our eye off the ball. In India the BJP won the election on a promise to test a nuclear bomb. What did we do to dissuade them? Nothing effective, anyway. As Kofi Annan said, diplomacy is nothing without weapons; but equally weapons are nothing without diplomacy. </FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT" class="style8 style24 style24"><FONT COLOR="000000">Now we face, in my view, a greater chance of a nuclear exchange than at any other time in the last 30 years. That is a major blow to our security, and I feel we contributed to it by our neglect. </FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT" class="style8 style24 style24"><FONT COLOR="000000">Vigilance is the price of peace, and when vigilance lapses, the consequences are serious. We have ignored Indonesia, too. A united, prosperous, and democratic Indonesia must matter to us if we are to see a balance of power in the Asia Pacific, which I believe should be a principle of our foreign policy. </FONT> </P>
<P ALIGN="CENTER" class="style8 style27"><B>THE NEED FOR A STRONG EUROPEAN SECURITY AND DEFENSE</B></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT" class="style8 style24 style24"><FONT COLOR="000000">As far as NATO is concerned, we keep saying, “European Security and Defense Identity: watch my lips.” Our adversaries watch our actions. We keep cutting our defense budgets. The U.S. is now below 4% of the GDP, the U.K. below 3%, Austria below 1%. I am one of the guilty men. I was both Budget Director and Defense Minister in my time. But because we have paid out a peace dividend, we now face a greater risk of war. </FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT" class="style8 style24 style24"><FONT COLOR="000000">SACEUR’s panel was asked during this Workshop whether Turkey feels offended by its treatment by the EU. My answer to that is yes, and it will damage the Alliance. If one thing matters to European security above all else, it is that Turkey should remain pluralistic, secular, and pro-Western. The EU has shown by snubbing Turkey that other agendas matter to it more than security, and the world has taken note. </FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT" class="style8 style24 style24"><FONT COLOR="000000">Meanwhile, we all know that part of the reason for wishing to develop a common foreign policy in the EU is to build the Union into a political bloc in the next century that is on a par with the U.S. and China. Those who dream of that goal believe that Europe should have a foreign policy distinctive from America’s—un-American or maybe even anti-American. The divisions in the Alliance over Iraq show what the effect of that would be on global order and our security. </FONT> </P>
<P ALIGN="CENTER" class="style8 style27"><B>CONCLUDING REMARKS</B></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT" class="style8 style24 style24"><FONT COLOR="000000">I believe we must recognize the following: that if we are to deal effectively with Kosovo and Iraq and India and Indonesia, and whatever happens next, we need clear U.S. leadership, and we have to follow that lead. We may all have our occasional differences with the U.S., but in its foreign policy it upholds the values to which we subscribe. If we indulge ourselves in striking too many individual national or European postures, we weaken the efficacy of those values in the world. </FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT" class="style8 style24 style24"><FONT COLOR="000000">I believe that the main threat to our security is not the strength of our adversaries but the weakness of our collective will. The world now doubts that we have the fixity of purpose, the moral authority, or even the means to impose global order. And for as long as we go on cutting our budgets, I doubt that we can prove them wrong. </FONT></P>
<h1 class="style196 style8 style24 style24"> </h1>
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