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<TITLE>Estonian President Lennart Meri's Speech to 1998 NATO Workshop, Vienna, Austria</TITLE>
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<P ALIGN="CENTER"><FONT COLOR="000000" SIZE="6" FACE="Palatino">NATO and
Europe: An Agenda for the Coming Years </FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="CENTER"><FONT COLOR="000000" SIZE="5" FACE="Palatino">President
of Estonia Lennart Meri</FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT"><FONT COLOR="000000" SIZE="3" FACE="Palatino">Recent
developments in Europe have fundamentally changed the European security
landscape. We are dealing now with a democratic Russia and a free
and democratic Ukraine. Soon there will be an enlarged NATO and an
enlarged European Union. With some exceptions, liberalized or even
free trade prevails in Europe. As the majority of experts note, the
classic security risks of the Cold War era are unlikely to emerge any time
soon. </FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT"><FONT COLOR="000000" SIZE="3" FACE="Palatino">NATO has
energetically built a community of institutions, including EAPC, the
NATO-Russia Council, and the NATO-Ukraine consultation mechanism. It
would like to be as fit and as energetic as possible. But granting
full membership to countries in Central Europe should remain one of its
major priorities, since this is an essential element of NATO’s quest
for a more stable security environment. </FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT"><FONT COLOR="000000" SIZE="3" FACE="Palatino">NATO has
also seriously redefined its missions in Europe and has been engaged in a
combat situation in Bosnia and a possible combat situation in Kosovo.
It has become a major vehicle in consulting the Russians and in
mustering the Big Power consensus on the Western front. NATO has
undeniably become the supporting pillar of the new European security
structure. </FONT> </P>
<P ALIGN="CENTER"><FONT COLOR="000000" SIZE="3" FACE="Palatino"><B>ENLARGEMENT
MUST CONTINUE</B> </FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT"><FONT COLOR="000000" SIZE="3" FACE="Palatino">In 1999, new
members will be accepted into the Alliance. Some analysts would like
to depict this enlargement as a one-time event, almost a lapse of history,
that will occur because of internal political reasons in Germany and the
United States. These analysts reason that no obvious rationale
exists for further enlargement to include other Central-European
aspirants. But such reasoning represents a fundamental
misunderstanding of Europe today. </FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT"><FONT COLOR="000000" SIZE="3" FACE="Palatino">NATO’s
new members will establish platforms of security and stability in regions
that were formerly considered to be under Soviet influence. That is
why issues such as economic well-being, development of the civilian
society, and the rule of law are so important in deliberations over new
members. It is crucial to look to both North and South when
contemplating the next round of NATO enlargement. New members are
ambassadors, whose positive records should reinforce changes in the
region. They are “well connected” relatives who can act
with greater authority in solving regional issues. </FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT"><FONT COLOR="000000" SIZE="3" FACE="Palatino">Therefore it
is not surprising that their relationship with the European Union is
deemed so important for NATO aspirants. I would certainly not
connect NATO and EU, or make one a prerequisite of the other. Rather
I would point out that the political fitness of potential new members of
NATO is mostly judged on EU criteria, which that organization has worked
out in much greater detail than the Alliance. NATO, of course,
includes military criteria, but these are concerned with the structural
and educational development of new-member armed forces rather than with
hardware. As some analysts have put it, “NATO has enough tanks
already.” </FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT"><FONT COLOR="000000" SIZE="3" FACE="Palatino">The
unification of Europe is and will remain the key issue. NATO has a
crucial role here, since it offers the highest form of interdependency in
possible conflicts. Article 5 is the strongest statement of unity
that the Western community can give, demanding in return only sensible,
low-profile behavior, logical for a member of the defense union. This
is what stability in Europe is all about. </FONT> </P>
<P ALIGN="CENTER"><FONT COLOR="000000" SIZE="4" FACE="Palatino">Contributions
of New Members </FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT"><FONT COLOR="000000" SIZE="3" FACE="Palatino">The Alliance
is fairly justified in inquiring about the contributions small countries
could make to its operations. Apart from adding political and
symbolic value, there are practical issues with which we can help. Small
countries are sometimes crucial in mustering political consensus by adding
their voices to the chorus. It is well known how important the
Benelux countries have been in keeping the European Union up and running.
Today, it is important to have an alliance whose members’
security depends vitally on the alliance being strong, prestigious, and
active. The presence of Slovenia, Estonia, or Lithuania in the
Alliance could also help to prevent conflicts and internal divisions among
the Big Powers by encouraging consensus. </FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT"><FONT COLOR="000000" SIZE="3" FACE="Palatino">Our recent
experience with India and Pakistan shows how important it is that many
countries be included in a wider system of security. The
denationalization of defense, emphasizing the collective will rather than
independent defense interests, plays an important part in providing
security in the new Europe, where ferocious wars have often begun—wars
that have expanded far beyond the borders of the continent. </FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT"><FONT COLOR="000000" SIZE="3" FACE="Palatino">Small
member-countries could also play a crucial role in avoiding
non-traditional risks such as the proliferation of nuclear, chemical, and
bacteriological materials and relevant expertise. Coupled with the
resources of the Alliance, small countries might make a critical
difference in solving these problems. Various forms of terrorism,
including cyberterrorism, will also find powerful opponents in new members
of the Alliance. </FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT"><FONT COLOR="000000" SIZE="3" FACE="Palatino">Many of
these new aspects of security have not yet gained the attention of the
public. However, I am happy to note that they were discussed at
length between the U.S. and the Nordic and Baltic Defense Ministers when
they met in early June in Copenhagen. </FONT> </P>
<P ALIGN="CENTER"><FONT COLOR="000000" SIZE="3" FACE="Palatino"><B>SECURITY
IN THE BALTIC SEA REGION</B> </FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT"><FONT COLOR="000000" SIZE="3" FACE="Palatino">The security
environment in the Baltic Sea region has improved considerably, which,
according to the criteria set out in the Enlargement Study, should act as
a good foundation for further enlargement in the North. There are
colleagues who have changed the criteria, however, and state that since
nothing threatens our region, there is really no rush to bring us into the
Alliance. But we agree with the three invited countries that threat
is not a reason for enlargement. </FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT"><FONT COLOR="000000" SIZE="3" FACE="Palatino">The
peaceful, stable, and economically booming nature of the Nordic-Baltic
region is playing an important part in building the new Europe. The
well-being of the Baltic States is also a vital part of Europe’s
stability. We have been actively pursuing the policy of positive
engagement with Russia, and our relations with them, as well as our
neighbors’ relations, have been steadily improving. The
European Union has taken an important step towards our region by inviting
Estonia to the accession negotiations and committing to inviting Latvia
and Lithuania soon. </FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT"><FONT COLOR="000000" SIZE="3" FACE="Palatino">The Baltic
States and the Nordic countries have also improved their security
environment by actively participating in the debate for regional security
and confidence-building measures. Russia, Germany, and a number of
other countries have made proposals to facilitate that process. Estonia,
together with its partners, has emphasized that we would not like to have
a special framework for the Baltic region, but rather a general “menu”
of CSBMs, agreed to by the whole of OSCE. Various subregions could
then choose CSBMs for their own region without cutting themselves off from
the generally agreed-to framework. </FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT"><FONT COLOR="000000" SIZE="3" FACE="Palatino">The
strategic importance of the Nordic-Baltic region has been seriously
enhanced since the end of the Cold War. In the geopolitical sense
the region has become one of the major points of contact with Russia both
for the European Union and for NATO. Additionally, the United States
has signed the Baltic Charter with the Baltic countries, declaring its “real,
profound, and enduring interest” in the security of the Baltic
States. The United States has also promoted a Northern Initiative
designed to include Russia in a wider web of economic cooperation. The
European Union is promoting the Program of Northern Dimension, which is
designed to erase economic differences between members and non-members in
the region. All of this, coupled with the activities of the Council
of Baltic Sea States, is creating an atmosphere of trust and cooperation.
</FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="CENTER"><FONT COLOR="000000" SIZE="3" FACE="Palatino"><B>RUSSIA
AND THE ALLIANCE</B> </FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT"><FONT COLOR="000000" SIZE="3" FACE="Palatino">An issue
still under lively debate is Russia’s relationship with the Alliance.
This relationship could be described as ambivalent. Events in
Bosnia and in Kosovo have shown that the Alliance is an important partner
for Russia, one with whom Russia can work in solving the difficult
questions of our time. NATO and Russia are still trying to find the
best procedures for pursuing their cooperation, but generally the
situation is positive. I believe this positive atmosphere can only
be enhanced by a larger, wider Alliance that includes Central-European
countries. </FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT"><FONT COLOR="000000" SIZE="3" FACE="Palatino">The future
members of the European Union will participate in formulating the Common
Foreign and Security Policy. Thus it is only natural that they
should also participate in transatlantic policy making and should have a
say in the NATO-Russia Council. This, needless to say, is another
argument for membership in the Alliance. </FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT"><FONT COLOR="000000" SIZE="3" FACE="Palatino">Russia never
has elaborated on what actually makes them uncomfortable concerning
continued enlargement. They have also never said why, in
contradiction to their general policy of reinforcing OSCE institutions,
they have gone against the principle of every country’s having the
freedom of choice to decide its own security arrangements. NATO
should not accept such a stand; it should explain again and again why
enlargement will have a positive impact far beyond the borders of those
countries that are accepted. Russian resistance must not be seen as
a natural phenomenon unless we have lost faith in Russian democracy.
</FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT"><FONT COLOR="000000" SIZE="3" FACE="Palatino">Zbigniew
Brzezinski provided an excellent argument for enlargement when he said
that NATO enlargement is reconciliation through security. The
relationship between the once-dominated Central-European countries and
Russia will change fundamentally. Countries such as Poland have no
reason to evoke their historic memory; Russian nationalist forces, which
are still visible in the Russian Duma, have no reason to wake theirs.
</FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT"><FONT COLOR="000000" SIZE="3" FACE="Palatino">Let us be
honest. Under President Yeltsin’s leadership, Russia’s
democracy and economy have had the chance to develop. While I pray
that those who come after him have a similar vision, as a pragmatist I
acknowledge that they might have a different one. It will be our job
in 1999 to design a system for European security that does not rely on the
good will of any leader in the East or in the West, regardless of our
personal sympathies. </FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT"><FONT COLOR="000000" SIZE="3" FACE="Palatino">If the
Washington Summit of 1999 implies that spheres of influence still exist,
those who really want them to reappear will have a good starting position.
We must work to make that position absolutely hopeless. </FONT> </P>
<P ALIGN="CENTER"><FONT COLOR="000000" SIZE="3" FACE="Palatino"><B>BALTS
AS ALLIES</B> </FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT"><FONT COLOR="000000" SIZE="3" FACE="Palatino">When we get
to the nuts and bolts of NATO membership, one key issue is the development
of defense forces in Estonia and the other Baltic States. Balts are
reliable allies when it comes to conflict solving. They have done
well in training exercises, in Bosnia and other places, where they have
been given a chance to show themselves. Granted, they cannot muster
the defense forces of Poland. But there is no doubt that they would
fiercely oppose any attempts to subject them to a foreign rule. If
one were to believe that the task of occupying the Baltic States would be
easy, one would be making a classic mistake of discounting a defense based
on popular determination: “You can destroy us, but you can
never conquer us.” </FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT"><FONT COLOR="000000" SIZE="3" FACE="Palatino">Problems
with Baltic defense have been clearly worded in special studies undertaken
by a number of Allied countries. It is positively surprising that,
when military specialists are brought in and asked to make a hardheaded
assessment of our problems and ways to solve them, they come up with
reasonable plans and ideas. I am happy to note that the popular
resistance-based defense model very similar to that of other Nordic states
has gained appreciation among the military whose own equipment includes
Tomahawks and radar-evading airplanes. </FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT"><FONT COLOR="000000" SIZE="3" FACE="Palatino">All three of
the Baltic States are now in the process of adopting systematic plans that
would guarantee the steady improvement of their defense forces for years
to come. Our states will be part of the community of countries whose
armed forces are transparent and democratically built. A number of
joint projects already connect states with each other and with other
countries of the Western community. The projects, including BALTNET,
the Baltic Air Control and Surveillance system, and the joint Baltic
Defense College, as well as the States’ integration into the
Nordic-Polish Brigade in Bosnia, have proved the Balts to be viable
partners for joint action. </FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT"><FONT COLOR="000000" SIZE="3" FACE="Palatino">As small
countries, the Baltic States should boldly assess which branches of their
armed forces could enhance NATO capabilities. While it would be
difficult to use our popular army for NATO tasks beyond our borders, it
would be equally difficult to keep large numbers of infantrymen in total
readiness. In Estonia we might therefore think, for example, about
Luxembourg’s experience in providing reconnaissance and Special
Forces support for the Alliance. In these kinds of tasks, even a
smaller force can make a considerable difference. </FONT> </P>
<P ALIGN="CENTER"><FONT COLOR="000000" SIZE="3" FACE="Palatino"><B>CONCLUDING
REMARKS</B> </FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT"><FONT COLOR="000000" SIZE="3" FACE="Palatino">Let me
remind you once again that the enlargement of the Alliance is one of the
major tools for instituting change in Europe. And while other areas
are important too, including the EAPC, relations with Russia, and
relations with Ukraine, the strongest statement of Europe’s
indivisibility will be conveyed by allowing aspirants to join the Alliance
under Article 4 and Article 5. In Madrid, the Alliance committed
itself to a strategy of continuous enlargement. Changing that
strategy would send a number of wrong signals and act against the logic of
contemporary Europe. </FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT"><FONT COLOR="000000" SIZE="3" FACE="Palatino">The Baltic
States in particular stand out among those for whom the continuation of
the declared policy is vital. And the importance of the Baltic
States far exceeds their great mineral resources, their population, and
the size of their territory. Richard Holbrooke put it well in his
<I>Wall Street Journal</I> commentary titled “NATO’s Next
Frontier: The Baltics.” There he said, “We should not
shrink from their [the Baltics’] desire for membership in NATO.
It is necessary that we stand up to the challenge and support them.
The issue of Baltic security is perhaps the hardest piece in the
NATO enlargement puzzle. It’s a political and moral litmus test
of our strategy to build a peaceful, democratic and undivided Europe.”
</FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT"><FONT COLOR="000000" SIZE="3" FACE="Palatino">Holbrooke
recognizes that the Baltic countries have a special role in Western policy
making. His own country, together with many others, never recognized
the illegal annexation of the Baltic States to the Soviet Union. Many
Western countries invested considerable political capital during the end
of the eighties and the beginning of the nineties, before the fall of the
Soviet Union, in the liberation of the Baltic States. Our
independence has also been recognized by the Soviet Union as well as other
countries. </FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT"><FONT COLOR="000000" SIZE="3" FACE="Palatino">I believe we
are on the right path. When I signed with President Clinton the
Baltic-U.S. Charter in Washington, Mr. Clinton said in his speech: “This
[charter] underscores America’s commitment to help create conditions
under which the Baltic States will one day walk through the open door.”
I have reason to believe that other countries share this commitment.
</FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT"><A HREF="meri98.htm">Go to Top of Page</A></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT"><A HREF="workshop98.htm">Return to Vienna '98</A></P>
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<P ALIGN="LEFT">Copyright © 1998 Center for Strategic Decision
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