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<title>Center for Strategic Decision Research, Peter Struck, Michele Alliot-Marie, General George Joulwan, SACEUR, General James L. Jones, SHAPE, NATO, EU, BDLI, ILA, EADS, Northrop Grumman, Under Secretary Michael Wynne, Assistant Secretary Linton Wells, Ambassador William Burns, NATO Military Committee Chairman General Harald Kujat, General Dynamics, Boeing, Global Security Terrorism, Iraq, Afghanistan, Rainer Hertrich, David Stafford</title>
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<td width="66" height="68"><p><img src="../2004book/logo-kevin-web.jpg" width="60" height="66"></p> </td>
<td width="618"><div align="center"><span class="style5">15th International Workshop on Global Security - Vienna, 19-23 June 1998<br>
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<p align="center" class="style17"><strong>Table of Contents:</strong></p>
<p align="left" class="style17"><strong><span class="style18"><a href="/98Book/fasslabend.htm">Austrian Defense Minister Werner Fasslabend </a></span></strong><a href="/98Book/weissingerbaylon.htm">Workshop Chairman Roger Weissinger-Baylon </a></p>
<p align="center" class="style18"><strong>Part 1</strong></p>
<p align="left" class="style18"><span class="style217"><strong></strong></span><span class="style217"><a href="/98Book/kwasniewski.htm">Polish President Aleksander Kwasniewski </a><a href="/98Book/klestil.htm">Austrian President Thomas Klestil</a></span><span class="style217"><a href="/98Book/meri.htm">Estonian President Lennart Meri </a><a href="/98Book/adamkus.htm">Lithuanian President Valdas Adamkus </a></span><span class="style217"><a href="/98Book/constantinescu.htm">Romanian President Emil Constantinescu </a></span><span class="style217"><a href="/98Book/drnovsek.htm">Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Drnovsek </a><a href="/98Book/nano.htm">Albanian Prime Minister Fatos Nano </a></span></p>
<p align="center" class="style18"><strong>Part 2</strong></p>
<p align="left" class="style18"><span class="style217"><a href="/98Book/solana.htm">NATO Secretary General Javier Solana </a><span class="style222"><a href="/98Book/clark.htm">SACEUR Gen Wesley Clark </a></span></span><span class="style217"><span class="style222"><a href="/98Book/cheshire.htm">CINC AFNORTHWEST Air Chief Marshal John Cheshire </a><a href="/98Book/spiering.htm">CINC AFCENT Gen Joachim Spiering </a></span></span></p>
<p align="center" class="style18"><strong>Part 3</strong></p>
<p align="left" class="style18"><span class="style219"><a href="/98Book/robertson.htm">UK Secretary of State for Defense George Robertson</a><a href="/98Book/cutileiro.htm">WEU Secretary General Jose Cutileiro</a></span><span class="style219"><a href="/98Book/schussel.htm">Austrian Foreign Minister Wolfgang Schussel</a><a href="/98Book/bodry.htm">Luxembourgan Defense Minister Alex Bodry </a><a href="/98Book/fjaervoll.htm">Norwegian Defense Minister Dag Jostein Fjaervoll</a></span></p>
<p align="center" class="style18"><strong>Part 4</strong></p>
<p class="style18"><span class="style219"><a href="/98Book/tarasyuk.htm">Ukranian Foreign Minister Borys Tarasyuk </a><a href="/98Book/geremek.htm">Polish Foreign Minister Bronislaw Geremek </a><a href="/98Book/novotny.htm">Czech Dep Defense Minister Jaromir Novotny </a></span></p>
<p align="center" class="style18"><strong>Part 5</strong></p>
<p class="style18"><span class="style209"><span class="style197"><a href="/98Book/veigasimao.htm">Portuguese Defense Minister Jose Veiga Simao </a></span><span #invalid_attr_id="10px 0px 0px 10px"><span class="style197"><a href="/98Book/tsohatzopoulos.htm">Greek Defense Minister Apostolos Tsohatzopoulos </a></span></span></span><span class="style219"><a href="/98Book/mihailova.htm">Bulgarian Foreign Minister Nadezha Mihailova</a></span><span class="style219"><a href="/98Book/babiuc.htm">Romanian Defense Minister Victor Babiuc</a></span></p>
<p align="center" class="style18"><strong>Part 6</strong></p>
<p class="style18"><span class="style219"><a href="/98Book/gansler.htm">US Under Secretary of Defense Jacques Gansler </a><a href="/98Book/weston.htm">British Aerospace Chief Executive John Weston </a></span><span class="style219"><a href="/98Book/piller.htm">Daimler-Benz Aerospace Board Member Wolfgang Piller</a></span><span class="style219"><a href="/98Book/sears.htm">Boeing President Michael Sears </a></span><span class="style219"><a href="/98Book/josefsson.htm">Celsius Chief Executive Lars Josefsson</a></span></p>
<p align="center" class="style18"><strong>Part 7</strong></p>
<p class="style18"><span class="style219"><a href="/98Book/naumann.htm">NATO Military Committee Chair Gen Klaus Naumann </a></span><span class="style219"><a href="/98Book/voorhoeve.htm">Dutch Defense Minister Joris Voorhoeve </a><a href="/98Book/lyles.htm">US BMDO Director Lt Gen Lester Lyles </a> <a href="/98Book/portillo.htm">UK Fmr Secretary of State for Defense Michael Portillo </a><a href="/98Book/hamre.htm">US Dep Secretary of Defense John Hamre </a></span> </p>
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<h1 ALIGN="CENTER" class="style8 style24 style24 style26"><span class="style27">Challenges of Instability for NATO in the Northwest Region</span></h1>
<P ALIGN="CENTER" class="style8 style28">Air Chief Marshal Sir John Cheshire KBE CBE<br>
Commander-in-Chief Allied Forces Northwest Europe</P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT" class="style8 style24 style24"><FONT COLOR="000000">In addition to the ACE-wide challenges to stability that SACEUR and DSACEUR described in detail, there are three additional challenges that face us in the Northwest Region. While these concerns either do not exist on the doorstep of my MSC (Major Subordinate Commander) colleagues, or are significantly less prevalent for them, I would still like to focus your attention on them. </FONT> </P>
<P ALIGN="CENTER" class="style8 style28"><B>PROXIMITY TO RUSSIA</B></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT" class="style8 style24 style24"><FONT COLOR="000000">The first challenge stems from the fact that geopolitically Russia is the largest nation in our Area of Interest (AOI). Indeed there is a common border between Norway and Russia. While it is easy for those of us who live in the secure environment of Vienna, New York, Ottawa, or even London to play down the significance of that 196-km common border in Finmark, the inescapable fact is that it remains a major factor in the instability assessment made by my colleagues in Norway. </FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT" class="style8 style24 style24"><FONT COLOR="000000">For the same reason, all our partner nations in the Baltic area also are very sensitive to the importance of their individual and collective relationships with Russia, in the context of regional stability. It is logical that those nations in the Northwest Region that have a common border with Russia would be most sensitive to the issue of stability with Russia. </FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT" class="style8 style24 style24"><FONT COLOR="000000">Although this particular geopolitical issue is of course a <I>national</I> concern, the fact that it is also a <I>common</I> one for many of our NATO and partner nations in the Northwest Region leads those of us responsible for regional stability to take it just as seriously as the nations themselves. I should also say that anything that Russia regards as an instability issue, particularly in the Leningrad Military District (LMD), is of no less concern to us. </FONT> </P>
<P ALIGN="CENTER" class="style8 style28"><B>NATO’S ABILITY TO INFLUENCE REGIONAL STABILITY</B></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT" class="style8 style24 style24"><FONT COLOR="000000">The second general point in the assessment of instability is how much NATO in general, and my Region in particular, can actually do to <I>influence</I> regional stability positively. It is, of course, obvious that we will do everything we can to enhance stability and reduce risks in our Region—indeed that is a formal task given to us by the North Atlantic Council. The dilemma we face, however, is that, in practice, we have little direct influence over some of the issues that might actually trigger instability in our Area of Interest. Four examples of such issues are bilateral border disputes, disturbances over minority rights, internal political instability, and disputes over offshore resources. </FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT" class="style8 style24 style24"><FONT COLOR="000000">Potential triggers of this sort actually cause us the greatest concern, because they are the ones over which we have little influence and which could ignite regional instability rapidly. Such instability might, in turn, result in a request by a long-standing Partner nation for NATO military assistance. In short, in these situations we might be unable to prevent a fuse from being lit, but we might be called on to help contain the ensuing explosion. </FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT" class="style8 style24 style24"><FONT COLOR="000000">We also recognize that NATO could, wholly unwittingly, aggravate the instability in the region, and we go to great lengths to avoid the possibility of that happening. For example, we recognize that we have to strike a very careful balance in our enhanced PFP program; a balance which, on the one hand, satisfies the increasing aspirations of the Baltic nations but, on the other, does not stray into areas that our Russian colleagues would regard as unacceptably destabilizing. </FONT> </P>
<P ALIGN="CENTER" class="style8 style28"><B>Our Relationship With Russia</B></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT" class="style8 style24 style24"><FONT COLOR="000000">As SACEUR’s custodian of the defense guarantee in the Northwest Region, I should like to make three specific points about our relationship with the Russian military: </FONT></P>
<UL class="style8 style24 style24">
<LI><FONT COLOR="000000">First and foremost, Russia poses no military threat to the Northwest Region. </FONT></LI>
<LI><FONT COLOR="000000">Second, we go to great lengths to ensure that the Russian military is fully aware of all the PFP activities in our Region—and why we are carrying them out and who is involved. Thanks to my good friend General Anatoly Krivolapov and his like-minded colleagues, I like to think that our activities are regarded as transparent, militarily sensible, and in the best interests of regional stability. I have little doubt that they would tell me if they regarded our activities otherwise. </FONT></LI>
<LI><FONT COLOR="000000">Third, the inescapable fact still remains that Russia retains sufficient military hardware in the Leningrad Military District to make life very uncomfortable for any of the nations in the Northwest Region’s Area of Interest. And if there is substantial military hardware in the hands of one nation in our AOI, and if the political situation in that nation is in any way unpredictable, it would be militarily irresponsible to ignore the potential for the unexpected. We try to remain militarily responsible. </FONT></LI>
</UL>
<P ALIGN="CENTER" class="style8 style28"><B>THE EXISTENCE OF TACTICAL NUCLEAR WEAPONS</B></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT" class="style8 style24 style24"><FONT COLOR="000000">A third potential trigger to instability in my Region is that Russia retains a substantial number of Tactical Nuclear Weapons (TNWs) in the Leningrad Military District. Our concern is not that Russia would contemplate using them against the nations in our Region. Rather, it is the risk that one (or more) of those weapons might get stolen. Were that to happen, and were the weapon to fall into the hands of extremists, then we would have to be prepared to handle the resulting potential for instability. </FONT> </P>
<P ALIGN="CENTER" class="style8 style28"><B>CONCLUDING REMARKS</B></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT" class="style8 style24 style24"><FONT COLOR="000000">I have tried to highlight just some of the issues that could trigger instability in the Northwest Region. I want to emphasize that none of them are threats, in using the traditional definition, but that all of them could occur and would almost certainly do so with little or no warning. If any of them were to materialize, we would not underestimate the political and military consequences of NATO involvement in its aftermath.</FONT></P>
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