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<P ALIGN="center"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="7">Events of October
1996 </FONT></FONT></P>
<HR SIZE="1">
<P ALIGN="center"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="5">Anne D. Baylon
</FONT></FONT></P>
<DIV ALIGN="center">
<CENTER></CENTER></DIV>
<DIV ALIGN="center">
<CENTER><ADDRESS>
<FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="4"><B><I>CENTRAL EUROPE
</I></B></FONT></FONT></ADDRESS></CENTER></DIV>
<P ALIGN="center"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="4"><B><I>Albania
</I></B></FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Oct. 20</B>
Voting for local elections goes relatively smoothly despite parliamentary
elections marred by fraud and violence last May for which President Sali
Berisha—a former Communist—was heavily criticized. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Oct. 21</B> As
the Council of Europe, which is in charge of monitoring the local
elections, reports no serious incidents of fraud, the Democratic Party of
President Sali Berisha claims a “landslide victory.” </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>NY Times, Oct.
25</B> Fatos Lubonja, a writer who spent 17 years in jail during the
Communist era, criticizes President Berisha for keeping Albania in the
past. For example, Albania is the only ex-Communist country where the
government totally controls the radio and television. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>NY Times, Oct.
27</B> More than half of the Albanian population is involved in collecting
interest from pyramid schemes that use the cash from new investors to pay
shareholders. But while the schemes survive as long as higher returns can
lure new investors, they always collapse over time. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="center"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="4"><B><I>Bulgaria
</I></B></FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Oct. 2</B> In
Sofia, former Prime Minister Andrei Lukanov is slain outside his house.
One of Bulgaria's most influential political figures, Mr. Lukanov helped
oust in 1989 Communist leader Todor Zhivkov (who ruled Bulgaria for 33
years) and was a strong critic of current Socialist Prime Minister Zhan
Videnov. President Zhelyu Zhelev denounces the killing and parliament
adopts a declaration condemning terrorism. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>NY Times, Oct.
28</B> Successive Bulgarian governments have balked at market reform,
refusing to privatize or dismantle inefficient state-owned industries and
discouraging Western investment while allowing former Communist
businessmen to strip state industries from their assets and send the money
(between $3 billion and $5 billion) abroad. In early presidential election
returns, voters register disapproval of the government, composed of former
Communists, by giving a strong lead to Petar Stoyanov, the candidate of
the anti-Communist Union of Democratic Forces. The function of president
is mostly ceremonial, however, and carries little power. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="center"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="4"><B><I>Czech
Republic </I></B></FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Oct. 25</B> The
Czech Defense Ministry announces that the estimated 150 Czech soldiers who
served in the 1991 Persian Gulf war will receive medical examinations
starting next month. The announcement follows recent reports that many
Czech veterans suffer from ailments comparable to those reported by U.S.
soldiers who also served in the Gulf war. These ailments have been
attributed to exposure to Iraqi chemical weapons. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="center"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="4"><B><I>Poland
</I></B></FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Oct. 23</B>
Parliament votes not to try Gen. Wojciech Jaruzelski and other former
Communist leaders for the deaths and imprisonment of opposition activists
who campaigned for democracy during martial law 15 years ago. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="center">
<FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="4"><B><I>EASTERN EUROPE
</I></B></FONT></FONT>
</P>
<P ALIGN="center"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="4"><B><I>Belarus
</I></B></FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Oct. 11</B>  President
Aleksandr Lukashenko, an openly anti-Western leader who seeks to reunite
with Russia and stall market reform, has been trying to gain unlimited
power by forcing through a new constitution to be decided by referendum on
Nov. 7. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Oct. 19</B>
Demonstrators march through the streets of Minsk to protest President
Lukashenko's bid to “gain near absolute power.” Elected on an
anti-corruption platform after Belarus—a country of 10 million—became
independent in 1991, Mr. Lukashenko went along with economic reform
initially, only to reverse course in 1995. Privatization has come to a
halt and the country appears to be going back to the old Communist order.
Mr. Lukashenko has offered to delay to Nov. 24—but not drop—the
referendum planned for Nov. 7. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="center"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="4"><B><I>Russia
</I></B></FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Oct. 1</B> With
troops now owed three months of back wages, Defense Minister Gen. Igor
Rodionov warns that the military may simply fail to respond to the
Kremlin's orders, “that is, people will just stop going to work.”
</FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Oct. 3</B> On
television, President Boris Yeltsin says that he urged Gen. Aleksandr
Lebed, his security adviser, to remain on the job although Mr. Lebed had
threatened to resign because of his “dwindling authority.” Mr.
Yeltsin also backs, and takes credit for, the accord Gen. Lebed concluded
with Chechen rebels. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Oct. 14</B>
Moscow has started to deport thousands of homeless people by train to
distant villages where they grew up or were last registered as permanent
residents. Although President Yeltsin and Moscow Mayor Yuri Luzhkov say
the deportations are part of the war on crime, the deportees have not been
charged with wrongdoing, a hint that the move is to clear Moscow's streets
of poor Russians and immigrants from the former Soviet republics. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Oct. 16</B>
Anatoly Chubais, President Yeltsin's chief of staff, has emerged in a few
months as a powerful force in the Russian government. A pro-capitalist
economist who led Russia's privatization campaign, Mr. Chubais has the
support of many free-market reformers. Asserting that an efficient state
is needed for achieving economic growth, Mr. Chubais is hoping to turn
Russia's “sometimes rudderless Government” into a disciplined
state. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3">Interior Minister
Anatoly Kulikov accuses his rival, national security adviser Alekskandr
Lebed, of preparing a “mutiny” but Mr. Lebed dismisses the
accusation as “nonsense.” </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Oct. 17</B>
Saying that “there has to be a united team,” President Boris
Yeltsin dismisses Aleksandr Lebed for trying to split the Kremlin
governing team. Now free to campaign to replace President Yeltsin, whom he
calls “aged and sick,” Mr. Lebed immediately announces his
presidential ambitions. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Oct. 18</B> All
Russian leaders—Communists or free-market proponents—back
President Yeltsin's dismissal of their rival, Aleksandr Lebed. But in
Chechnya, rebel leaders say that they cannot count on Russia without Gen.
Lebed and announce plans to hold elections on Jan. 27 without consulting
the Kremlin. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Oct. 19</B>
President Yeltsin chooses Ivan Rybkin, a 50-year-old moderate politician
loyal to the Yeltsin administration, to replace Mr. Lebed. Unlike Mr.
Lebed, Mr. Rybkin is not named national security adviser, but he combines
the functions of secretary of the National Security Council and
presidential envoy to Chechnya. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Oct. 24</B>
Chronic tax evasion is the most pressing problem facing President
Yeltsin's administration, forcing the government to delay the payment of
wages and pensions and causing public unrest among workers. There is no
single reason for the tax evasion: some companies delay tax payments until
they are paid by their creditors while others simply use political
connections to reduce or ignore their tax obligations. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Oct. 27</B> New
security chief Ivan Rybkin promises Chechen rebel leaders that Russia will
hold to the peace agreement signed by his predecessor, Aleksandr Lebed.
</FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Oct. 31</B>
Vladimir Nechai, the head of Chelyabinsk-70—a top nuclear research
center which played an important role in the design and development of the
Soviet nuclear arsenal—commits suicide, heightening the plight of
Russian scientists who are owed back wages and demanding sorely needed
funds. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="center"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="4"><B><I>Ukraine
</I></B></FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>NY Times, Oct.
18</B> Since President Kuchma's election victory in 1994, a new elite of
politicians from the city of Dnepropetrovsk (including the President;
Prime Minister; the ministers of national security, agriculture, and
industry; and a host of former Soviet-era politicians) has been ruling
Ukraine. The powerful “clan from Dnepropetrovsk” is being
accused of corruption and of systematically looting national assets.
</FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>NY Times, Oct.
24</B> After five years as an independent country, Ukraine finds itself
caught between a “beckoning West” and a “volatile Russia”
that supplies the natural gas Ukraine needs for its industrial and home
energy consumption. Russia, however, has not agreed yet on the demarcation
lines of the border between the two countries. Ukraine, which is seen by
Washington as a “critical buffer” between Russia and Europe, has
been trying to achieve both a special understanding with NATO and a solid
relationship between Russia and NATO. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="center"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="4"><B><I>Ukraine/Russia
</I></B></FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Oct. 24</B>
President Kuchma of Ukraine and President Yeltsin meet to discuss a 1995
agreement Russia and Ukraine made in the Crimean resort of Sochi to split
the former Soviet Black Sea fleet (Russia would “purchase” most
of the Ukrainian share and end up with 82% of the fleet). Both agree that
Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin will go to Kiev in November to sign
agreements that could lead to a cooperation treaty. But they postpone
deciding the status of Sevastopol, the fleet's home town that is located
in Ukrainian Crimea and coveted by both sides. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="center">
<FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="4"><B><I>THE FORMER YUGOSLAVIA
</I></B></FONT></FONT>
</P>
<P ALIGN="center"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="4"><B><I>Bosnia
</I></B></FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Oct. 1</B> The
U.N. Security Council ends the sanctions it imposed in 1992 on Yugoslavia
(Serbia and Montenegro). </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Oct. 3</B> U.S.
Defense Secretary William Perry tells a U.S. Senate panel that up to 7,500
American troops will remain in Bosnia until next March. Five thousand
troops will leave soon for a six-month tour in Bosnia in order to assist
with the withdrawal of the U.S. peacekeeping force of 15,000 men scheduled
to pull out by Dec. 20. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3">In Paris, Serbian
President Slobodan Milosevic and Alija Izetbegovic, the chairman of the
new three-member Bosnian Presidency, sign an accord brokered by French
President Jacques Chirac in which they agree to establish full diplomatic
relations and to move “from confrontation to cooperation.”
</FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Oct. 5</B>
Objecting to the wording of the oath of office and the security
arrangements for the ceremony to swear in the three-member presidency and
legislators, Bosnian Serb leaders refuse to attend. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Oct. 6</B>
Political chaos, combined with porous borders, widespread poverty, and
violence, has caused a thriving criminal underworld to flourish in Bosnia.
Well-organized gangs of ethnic Serbs, Croats, and Muslims (the “only
genuinely multi-ethnic organizations in Bosnia) have developed drug routes
and prostitution rings with the complicity of local officials to whom they
give bribes. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Oct. 10</B> As
the official in charge of the civilian part of the Bosnian peace
agreement, Carl Bildt asks that peacekeeping troops remain in Bosnia until
1998 in order to give Bosnia a chance to recover from the war. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>NY Times, Oct.
17</B> The Arizona market, an improvised market located near the strategic
town of Brcko in northern Bosnia, is one of the few places in Bosnia where
ethnic Serbs, Croats, and Muslims can mix and work together. Cited by NATO
commanders as a sign that the three groups can get along, the market is
also criticized for perpetuating the lawlessness and black marketeering
now common in Bosnia. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Oct. 18</B>
Intelligence officials in Bosnia find the Bosnian Serbs in violation of
the Balkans arms reduction agreement with many more heavy weapons (about
2,500 pieces) than they declared (about 1,350 pieces). The arms control
agreement set limits on the number of heavy weapons the parties to the
agreement can have and requires them to destroy excessive stocks. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Oct. 19</B> One
month after the elections, the new presidency and parliament that were to
unify Bosnia are being boycotted by Bosnian Serbs who are pushing ahead
with plans to secede and merge with Serbia; and refugees trying to return
to villages in enemy hands have been forced back. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Oct. 22</B> The
OSCE, which is supervising elections in Bosnia, announces that municipal
elections will be postponed for the second time (elections were first
postponed from September to November due to irregularities in voter
registration) because the Bosnian Serbs have decided to boycott the vote.
But some diplomats fear that the new postponement will only solidify the
lines of partition separating the three ethnic groups in Bosnia. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Oct. 24</B>
Although the U.S. has shipped $100 million worth of military equipment
intended for Bosnia to the Croatian port of Ploce, it refuses to turn it
over until the Bosnian government agrees to meet certain conditions,
including the dismissal of Deputy Defense Minister Hasan Cengic, who is
accused of having ties to Iran. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Oct. 25</B>
Officials in Washington and NATO have begun preparing for a new
international peacekeeping force in Bosnia that would include at least
5,000 and perhaps as many as 10,000 U.S. troops. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>NY Times, Oct.
27</B> With Bosnian leaders continuing to block the reunification of the
Muslim-Croat Federation and the Bosnian Serb republic, Bosnia's industrial
network—which used to employ half of the country's workers—is
now unsalvageable. Production is down by 90% and what is left in the two
parts of the country are two rudimentary economies that will be competing,
instead of collaborating, for the same markets. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="center"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="4"><B><I>Croatia
</I></B></FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Oct. 8</B> Antun
Tus, a retired Croatian general, criticizes President Franjo Tudjman on
Radio 101—the last independent radio station in Croatia—over Mr.
Tudjman's drive to turn Croatia into a military power.  Although
Radio 101 resisted Communist and nationalist intolerance for 13 years, it
is likely to be turned over to Tudjman supporters when its license expires
in November. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Oct. 16</B>
After a six-month delay over human rights concerns, the Council of Europe,
which promotes democracy and human rights, admits Croatia as its 40th
member. Croatia is the second former Yugoslav republic (Slovenia joined in
1993) to be accepted as a member. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT SIZE="4"> </FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="center"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="4"><B><I>Germany/Bosnian
Refugees </I></B></FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Oct. 9</B> Some
of the 320,000 Bosnian refugees who have found shelter in Germany are
being threatened with expulsion as Bavaria announces that it will
immediately enforce an August decree it signed, along with the other 15
German states, to return the refugees voluntarily or by force to Bosnia.
German states have been financially burdened by the refugees and have
pressed for their departure since the December peace agreement. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="center">
<FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="4"><B><I>WESTERN EUROPE / EASTERN
EUROPE
</I></B></FONT></FONT>
</P>
<P ALIGN="center"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="4"><B><I>France/U.S.A./NATO
</I></B></FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Oct. 12</B>
Blaming the U.S. for its refusal to let a European officer be in charge of
the Alliance's southern command (which includes the U.S. Sixth Fleet)—a
post traditionally held by an American admiral—France says that it
will remain in NATO politically but not militarily (except in some cases
such as Bosnia). France had considered rejoining NATO's military command
structure but insisted in August on European control of the two main NATO
ground commands, one of which is Allied Forces Southern Command. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="center"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="4"><B><I>Norway
</I></B></FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Oct. 23</B> In a
surprise announcement, Prime Minister Gro Harlem Brundtland announces her
resignation, saying that she will run for reelection to parliament in
September 1997 and brushing off speculation that she quit to seek the post
of U.N. Secretary General. She is being succeeded by Thorbjoern Jagland,
leader of the Labor Party, who is expected to follow the current
government policies.   </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="center"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="4"><B><I>Norway/U.S.A./Russia
</I></B></FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Oct. 5 (Reported
in NY Times, Oct. 8)</B> Norway and the United States sign the Arctic
Military Environmental Cooperation Accord with Russia to help Russia
(technically and financially) dispose of nuclear submarine reactors and
other radioactive waste that it dumped for 30 years in the Barents and
Kara seas. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="center"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="4"><B><I>Russia/NATO
</I></B></FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Oct. 6</B> At
NATO Headquarters in Brussels, Russian security adviser Alexander Lebed
announces his goal to pursue a “complicated, but civilized dialogue”
concerning NATO's enlargement. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Oct. 7</B>
Although Gen. Lebed concedes that NATO has the right to enlarge, he urges
the Alliance to delay the decision to expand for a generation in order to
“allow the bitterness of the cold war to fade.” </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Oct. 9</B>
Despite possible Russian reactions, the U.S. is pushing ahead with the
NATO expansion schedule that will bring several former Soviet allies into
NATO in 1999. In December, NATO is to set a date (before July 97) for a
summit conference that will name the first countries eligible for NATO
membership. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="center"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="4"><B><I>Switzerland
</I></B></FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Oct. 30</B>
Switzerland announces that it will join the NATO Partnership for Peace
program. The move will allow Swiss officers to observe military maneuvers
and play some part in peacekeeping exercises. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="center"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="4"><B><I>Turkey
</I></B></FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Oct. 1</B>
Necmettin Erbakan, the leader of the pro-Islamic Welfare Party who became
Turkey's Prime Minister in June, has been campaigning for closer ties with
Muslim countries. After visiting Iran in August, where he signed a
multibillion-dollar oil transport agreement with the government, he is
about to embark on a trip to Libya, declared a terrorist state by the
U.S., and Nigeria, whose military leaders have jailed the man who won the
country's last presidential election. The trip is causing concern in the
West. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Oct. 7</B>
Turkey and Libya sign a deal to triple trade between the two countries,
prompting U.S. criticism. </FONT></FONT></P>
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<P ALIGN="left">Copyright © Center for Strategic Decision Research
1997</P>
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