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<P ALIGN="center"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="7">Events of March
1996 </FONT></FONT></P>
<HR SIZE="1">
<P ALIGN="center"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="5">Anne D. Baylon</FONT></FONT>
</P>
<P ALIGN="center">
<FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="4"><B><I>EASTERN EUROPE
</I></B></FONT></FONT>
</P>
<P ALIGN="center"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="4"><B><I>Russia
</I></B></FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Mar. 1</B>
Against promises made to the International Monetary Fund, Russian Finance
Minister Vladimir Panskov proposes to increase import tariffs by about
20%. The plan is intended in part to help President Boris Yeltsin's
reelection campaign by raising revenue for social spending. The IMF has
promised to lend Russia $10.2 billion provided that Moscow continues with
market reforms and reduces trade barriers. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Mar. 15</B>
Challenging President Boris Yeltsin's authority, the Russian parliament
votes to void the 1991 accord that led to the dissolution of the Soviet
Union. Although Mr. Yeltsin can stop the resolution from becoming law, the
resolution raises fears as to what will happen if Communist leader Gennadi
Zyuganov, who is currently ahead in the polls, becomes President in June.
</FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Mar. 17</B>
Gennadi Zyuganov presents an election program intended to appeal to a
large spectrum of voters. Although he says that the Soviet Union should be
restored, he insists that such a confederation of former republics should
be voluntary. He also stresses that he will not renationalize businesses
or confiscate private property but makes it clear that he favors state
control of the economy's main sectors and opposes a large-scale sale of
land. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Mar. 21</B> In
the wake of the Russian parliament's vote on the restoration of the Soviet
Union, Gennadi Zyuganov and the Communist Party have come under greater
voter scrutiny and have been accused of harboring “a secret plan to
restore Soviet-style rule and economic management.” </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Mar. 25</B>
Russia drops its plan to increase import tariffs by 20%, prompting the
International Monetary Fund to go forward with a $10.2 billion loan to
help Russia with market reforms. The planned schedule should make more
then $1 billion available before the June elections, giving President
Yeltsin an important election boost. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Mar. 28</B>
Although he was forced out of office by President Yeltsin, former Deputy
Prime Minister Anatoly Chubais, a leading economic reformer, says that he
will support President Yeltsin's reelection because “he has the best
chance to stop Gennadi Zyuganov from coming to power and repealing
reforms.” </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Mar. 31</B> In
the strongest step of his reelection campaign, President Yeltsin announces
an end to all major military operations in Chechnya and says for the first
time that he will approve peace talks with Chechen rebel leader Gen.
Dzhokhar Dudayev. But Chechen commanders, civilians, and even Russian
soldiers in Grozny are skeptical that Mr. Yeltsin's announcement will
bring much change. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="center"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="4"><B><I>Russia/Belarus
</I></B></FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Mar. 23</B> The
leaders of Russia and Belarus, President Boris Yeltsin and President
Aleksandr Lukashenko, agree to form a “union state” which will
tie the two countries economically, politically, and culturally. Unlike
the Commonwealth of Independent States, which is a loose and ineffectual
group of former Soviet republics, the new union is a first real step
toward a confederacy centered around Russia and based on shared cultural
values. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="center"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="4"><B><I>Russia/Chechnya
</I></B></FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Mar. 3</B>
Russian troops are ambushed by Chechen rebels in Sernovodsk, a Chechen
town 30 miles west of the capital of Grozny. The troops had been sent to
the area to disarm rebels believed to be hiding there. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Mar. 5</B> One
thousand people join 16,000 others who have fled Sernovodsk and found
refuge in the neighboring republic of Ingushetia. Russian troops have now
besieged and shelled the town for the past three days. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Mar. 6</B>
Capturing a freight train, hundreds of Chechen rebels ride into Grozny and
mount an offensive to retake the capital which Russian troops have held
for over a year. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Mar. 7</B>
Chechen rebels retake one third of the city, destroying water lines, gas
depots, and heating supplies. The Chechen assault on the capital is aimed
at destroying Mr. Yeltsin's chances of reelection in June. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Mar. 8</B>
Pro-Chechen gunmen hijack a Turkish Cypriot jet near Cyprus and land it in
Munich, reportedly claiming that “they just wanted to make their
voices heard” and will let the passengers go. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Mar. 11</B>
Chechen rebels leave Grozny after a four-day assault on Russian troops.
According to the Russian Interior Ministry, 170 Russian soldiers died in
the battle, 276 were injured, and 40 are missing. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Mar. 13</B>
Russian aircraft bomb the village of Bamut, 40 miles southwest of Grozny,
in which Chechen rebels hold 90 Russian hostages they captured during the
assault on Grozny. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Mar. 22</B>
Russian planes strike villages throughout Chechnya. In Bamut, Chechen
rebels resist fiercely. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="center"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="4"><B><I>Russia/Kazakstan/Kyrgyzstan/Belarus
</I></B></FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Mar. 29</B>
Moving to undercut the Communists who have called for the Soviet Union's
restoration, President Yeltsin signs an agreement to create closer ties
with Kazakstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Belarus. The agreement lists the creation
of a common market for goods, services, and capital and the coordination
of industrial and agricultural policies as future measures to be taken.
</FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="center">
<FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="4"><B><I>THE FORMER YUGOSLAVIA
</I></B></FONT></FONT>
</P>
<P ALIGN="center"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="4"><B><I>Bosnia
</I></B></FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Mar. 1</B> The
international war crimes tribunal charges Bosnian Serb Gen. Djordje
Djukic, a close aide to Gen. Ratko Mladic, of war crimes, including the
shelling of civilian targets in Sarajevo. The indictment brings to 53 (46
Serbs and 7 Croats) the number of suspects indicted by the tribunal.
</FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3">NATO troops are
reluctant to become involved in hunting war crime suspects, saying that
their task is the far larger responsibility to separate the warring forces
and keep peace. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Mar. 2</B> The
Bosnian government has sent several hundred Bosnian troops to Iran for
training, causing the West to worry about the indoctrination of these
troops in Islamic ideology. Combined with the presence of about 200
Iranian Revolutionary Guards in Bosnia (in violation of the Dayton
Agreement), the training marks the efforts by the Iranian militant Islamic
government to develop close ties with the Bosnian government. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Mar. 4</B> In an
interview, Louise Arbour, the Canadian judge who is to succeed Richard
Goldstone as chief prosecutor of the international war crimes tribunal,
stresses that the prime responsibility for arresting possible war
criminals rests with Balkan leaders who signed the Dayton Agreement. The
NATO force, she points out, should not be viewed as the “primary
source of cooperation” with the tribunal. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>NY Times, Mar. 5</B>
Former Prime Minister Haris Silajdzic will be challenging President Alija
Izetbegovic in upcoming presidential elections by running on a platform of
ethnic harmony and an end to religion-based politics. So far, Serbs,
Muslims, and Croats have constituted three powerful factions that favor
dividing the country into three separate republics; but Mr. Silajdzic says
that Bosnia “must remain one country based on respect for others.”
</FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Mar. 5</B> Over
20 criminal lawyers have been recruited to defend the Bosnian Serb
officers indicted by the international war crimes tribunal. Their chief
task, they say, is to make sure that their clients do not cooperate with
the tribunal since they might inadvertently provide incriminating
information about more senior officials. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Mar. 6</B> A
dozen men, believed to be Bosnian Croat police officers, try to obstruct
the transfer of Hadzici, the third of five Sarajevo suburbs to be handed
over to the Muslim-Croat Federation by Mar. 20. They occupy the police
station but withdraw after NATO threatens to use force. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Mar. 7</B> The
U.N. prosecutor for the war crimes tribunal asks Serbian officials to
release Drazen Erdemovic, a soldier who confessed to shooting scores of
Muslims in Srebrenica at the direct order of his superiors. The soldier
was arrested on Mar. 3 by the Serbian police in what may have been an
attempt to prevent his testimony before the tribunal. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Mar. 8</B> As
the Mar. 20 deadline for Sarajevo's reunification approaches, many Serbs
are leaving the last Serbian areas of Sarajevo, in part because separatist
Serbs intent on dividing Bosnia are intimidating them into leaving. In
Tuzla, Muslim refugee women block the roads into the city, calling for
international action to find their relatives (about 8,000 of them) who
disappeared after Bosnian Serbs seized the Srebrenica enclave last July.
</FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Mar. 10</B> NATO
commanders order reinforcements to stop the mounting lawlessness, looting,
and arson by gangs of young Serbs in the two remaining Serbian-held
suburbs of Sarajevo. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Mar. 11</B> In
the five Serbian suburbs of Sarajevo that are being turned over to the
Muslim-Croat Federation, over 50,000 of the population of 60,000 Serbs
have now fled. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Mar. 12</B> In
the first significant contribution to the war crimes tribunal, Serbian
President Slobodan Milosevic pledges to turn over to the tribunal two
Bosnian Serb soldiers held by the Serbian police in Belgrade. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Mar. 13</B> The
anarchy officials feared from the transfer of Serbian-held suburbs to the
Muslim-Croat Federation has come true in the Sarajevo suburb of Ilidza
(turned over on Mar. 12) where hundreds of Muslim thugs have been
intimidating the 3,000 elderly or sick Serbs who have remained. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Mar. 14</B> The
U.S. Senate votes to withhold $200 million in civilian aid to the Bosnian
government until Iranian military and intelligence personnel leave the
country. According to the Dayton Agreement, all foreign soldiers were to
have left Bosnia by Jan. 19. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Mar. 17</B>
Grbavica, the last Serbian-held enclave to be turned over to the
Muslim-Croat federation on Mar. 19, suffers devastation as Bosnian Serb
gangs set fire to entire blocks of housing. Detention of suspects by NATO
forces (the most aggressive response they can use) does not deter the
widespread destruction. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Mar. 18</B> In a
follow-up of the Feb. 18 crisis meeting in Rome, Serbian President
Slobodan Milosevic, Croatian President Franjo Tudjman, and Bosnia's Acting
President Ejup Ganic meet in Geneva and promise again to carry out the
Dayton Accord. In particular, they agree to hand over several officers to
the war crimes tribunal, to restore air and rail links, to release the
last 219 prisoners of war, and to improve freedom of movement and
association prior to elections scheduled for September. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Mar. 19</B> A
Pentagon report to the U.S. Senate Intelligence Committee predicts that,
without a major international aid program to rebuild Bosnia's economy and
political institutions, the “prospects for the existence of a viable,
unitary Bosnia beyond the life” of the NATO deployment are “dim.”
</FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3">With most Serbs gone
from Sarajevo, the return of the last suburb of Grbavica to Bosnian
government control signals the final split of Bosnia into three ethnic
enclaves instead of the hoped for return to multi-ethnicity. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3">Acting on an
international warrant from the war crimes tribunal, German and Austrian
authorities arrest three men, including, for the first time, a Bosnian
Muslim said to have killed Bosnian Serb civilians. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Mar. 20</B>
International civilian and military authorities are pressing NATO to keep
at least a reduced force after its year-end planned withdrawal. According
to Carl Bildt, who presides over civilian efforts to implement the Dayton
Accord, refugee return and Bosnia's reconstruction require “a feeling
of overall security for which some kind of military presence will be
required.” </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3">So far, the U.N.
only has been able to deploy 693 of the 1,721 civilian police monitors it
was asked to recruit, because member -countries are either not meeting
their pledges or sending unqualified personnel. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Mar. 22</B> The
war crimes tribunal issues its first indictment for crimes committed
against Serbs and charges three Bosnian Muslims and one Bosnian Croat for
crimes against Serbian prisoners at the Celebici detention camp in Central
Bosnia. Until now, Serbs have contended that the tribunal was biased
against Serbs. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Mar. 23</B>
Meeting in Moscow, the foreign ministers of the Contact Group for the
former Yugoslavia (U.S.A., Britain, France, Germany, and Russia) warn that
a planned April 12 meeting in Brussels on economic aid to the region will
be canceled unless all prisoners of war in Bosnia are released. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Mar. 27</B>
German Foreign Minister Klaus Kinkel announces the cancellation of a
meeting intended to draw Bosnian Muslim and Croat leaders closer because
the two sides “were too far apart for the meeting.” According to
a German official, disagreements affect everything, including “the
structure of the federation, how it works, refugees, pilot projects, and
the federation police." </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Mar. 31</B>
Muslim and Croatian leaders sign a contract to help make their federation
workable. Proposed by international mediators, the plan establishes a new
customs arrangement to raise revenues for the federation. It also permits
the firing of local leaders who obstruct the implementation of federation
agreements and outlines steps to operate the working federation such as
the development of a federation budget and banking system. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="center"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="4"><B><I>Serbia
</I></B></FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Mar. 3</B> While
Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic has been promoting himself
internationally as a “guarantor of peace in the Balkans,” at
home he has been cracking down on political opposition and moving to
reassert state control of the economy. For example, by controlling the
media Mr. Milosevic has been able to maintain a 50% approval rating
despite an unemployment rate of 50%. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Mar. 9</B>
Twenty thousand people demonstrate in Belgrade against the government of
President Slobodan Milosevic, accusing him of starting the wars in Bosnia
and Croatia and of having destroyed Serbia's economy. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="center">
<FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="4"><B><I>WESTERN EUROPE / EASTERN
EUROPE
</I></B></FONT></FONT>
</P>
<P ALIGN="center"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="4"><B><I>Germany
</I></B></FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>NY Times, Mar.
24</B> Since the late 1980s, more than one million ethnic Germans from the
former Soviet Union have taken advantage of German laws allowing them to
return to Germany and obtain full citizenship and social benefits. But
their return has coincided with economic difficulties for Germany due to
the cost of reunification and unemployment caused by an economic slowdown.
As a result, ethnic Germans have found resentment and the German
government has issued laws limiting Germany's acceptance of ethnic Germans
to 220,000 per year. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="center"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="4"><B><I>NATO </I></B></FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Mar. 2</B> The
U.S. and its NATO allies agree on new procedures that will allow European
countries to use NATO command and support structures on their own (i.e.,
even if no U.S. combat troops are involved) in future peacekeeping
operations of the Bosnia type. The new procedures could be used to avert
blowups in territory traditionally within NATO's scope in Europe or even
North Africa. The agreement reinforces the notion of a cohesive European
defense that France, Germany, and other European leaders have promoted.
</FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="center"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="4"><B><I>Nuclear
Test Ban Treaty </I></B></FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Mar. 7</B> In
Geneva, Russia endorses a global treaty to ban underground nuclear testing
but does not approve a “no yield” test ban that would prohibit
even the slightest release of nuclear energy (the U.K., France, and the
U.S. support such a ban and have been waiting for Russia's public
endorsement of it). </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="center"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="4"><B><I>Russia/Norway
</I></B></FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Mar. 26</B>
President Boris Yeltsin ends a two-day visit to Norway by pledging over
$200 million toward environmental cooperation, in particular for the
cleanup of a nickel refinery on the Russian Kola Peninsula, near the
Norwegian city of Kirkenes. The plant, which creates a “black desert”
with the sulfur dioxide it emits into the air, will be rebuilt on a model
that will reduce emissions by 95%. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="center"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="4"><B><I>Spain </I></B></FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Mar. 3</B> Jose
Maria Aznar, a 43-year-old conservative, becomes Spain's new Prime
Minister. He defeats Felipe Gonzales who, as Prime Minister for the past
13 years, had helped the transition from dictatorship to democracy.
</FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="center"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="4"><B><I>Turkey
</I></B></FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Mar. 3</B> The
two center-right parties—Mesut Yilmaz's Motherland Party and Prime
Minister Tansu Ciller's True Path Party—form a coalition government
to block Necmettin Erbakan's pro-Islamic Welfare Party from acceding to
government (although it won December parliamentary elections). The
coalition government arranges for a power-sharing formula in which Mr.
Yilmaz and Mrs. Ciller will take turns at the post of Prime Minister.
</FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="center"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="4"><B><I>United
States </I></B></FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Mar. 16</B>
Prompted by a growing international campaign to ban the use of land mines,
a strong anti-mine sentiment in Congress, and the daily threat to American
soldiers of three million land mines planted in Bosnia, Chairman of the
Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. John Shalikashvili orders a review of the
military's long-standing opposition to banning the use of these mines. An
estimated 100 million land mines have been planted in 62 countries and
approximately 600 people a month are killed or wounded as a result.
</FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="center"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="4"><B><I>United
States/Former Soviet Union </I></B></FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Mar. 12 </B>A
report prepared for the U.S. Senate warns that the former Soviet republics
cannot account for a large share of their bomb-grade uranium and plutonium
stockpiles, thus creating a “primary national security concern for
the United States.” The report cites in particular the lax security
systems protecting the stockpiles, making these stockpiles an easy target
for thieves. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="3"><B>Mar. 17</B> In a
project initiated in 1993, the Russian Tupolev warplane manufacturer has
joined U.S. aerospace companies to carry out research for a new supersonic
civilian plane. Any aircraft that results from this American-Russian
collaboration will compete with the Franco-British Concorde supersonic
plane. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT SIZE="+1"><A HREF="march96.htm">Go to top of page</A></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="left"><FONT SIZE="+1"><A HREF="96timelines.htm">Return to 1996
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<P ALIGN="left">Copyright © Center for Strategic Decision Research
1997</P>
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