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<TITLE>Russian Ambassador Dr. Tedo Japaridze...Integrating Russia in the
New European Security Architecture</TITLE>
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<CENTER><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="+4">Integrating Russia in the
New European</FONT></FONT></CENTER>
<CENTER><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="+4">Security Architecture</FONT></FONT></CENTER>
<CENTER><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="+3">Ambassador Dr. Tedo
Japaridze</FONT></FONT></CENTER>
<CENTER><I><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="+2">National Security
Advisor to the Head of State of Georgia</FONT><FONT SIZE="+1"></FONT></FONT></I></CENTER>
<CENTER></CENTER>
<CENTER><B><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="+1">THE SITUATION IN RUSSIA</FONT></FONT></B></CENTER>
<P><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="+0">The end of the Cold War, which
was marked by changes in Europe and the dissolution of the Soviet Union,
began the development of the new world geopolitical order. This process is
unfolding very painfully, largely because the balance of forces that
existed under the bipolar system has been disrupted. On one hand, we are
confronted by the disruption of the balance between East and West, caused
by the disintegration of the Communist bloc and the transformations that
it triggered. On the other hand, the changes in the East unleashed
nationalistic and separatist forces, some healthy and others destructive,
that had been suppressed during the totalitarian regime.</FONT></FONT>
</P>
<P><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="+0">In the new scheme of events,
nationalist forces initially took the upper hand; consequently, fifteen
sovereign states were established on the territory of the former Soviet
Union. At the same time, democratic changes began in East European
countries that were basically liberated from the influence of Communist
ideology and Soviet totalitarianism. In political terms, the East ceased
to exist, but time has demonstrated the persistence of the ideology and
world view on which it was based. In Russia, a drastic deterioration of
economic conditions is accompanying the economic reforms. At the same
time, the Russian military and political elite perceive the post-Cold War
situation as a wound to Russia's dignity. Gradually, these influences have
led to neo-imperial and revanchist feelings, which, to a degree, have been
incorporated into State policy.</FONT></FONT> </P>
<P><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="+0">The proponents of that policy
have directed it toward the restoration of Russian influence in the former
republics of the Soviet Union and toward Russian-oriented integration. To
attain their objectives, these forces principally apply two methods:
ethnic blackmail and ethnic conflict, which are instigated by provoking
separatist forces. In a number of instances, their policy has been
successful. At the present time, the final stage of the restoration of
Russian influence on the territory of the Newly Independent States (NIS)
is a reality.</FONT></FONT> </P>
<CENTER></CENTER>
<CENTER><B><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="+1">THE DIRECTIONS RUSSIA
MAY FOLLOW</FONT></FONT></B></CENTER>
<P><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="+0">As a result, Russia is at an
historical crossroads. Russia has declared its priorities to be the
development of democratic social structures and a market economy. At the
same time, given its policy in the "near abroad," Russia faces
the prospect of reviving the Russian Empire. The direction in which Russia
evolves will largely determine the development of global events. There are
at least two possible scenarios:</FONT></FONT> </P>
<P><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="+0">First, in the event that
democratization prevails, Russia and, consequently, the entire NIS will
evolve into a civilized political and economic partnership. Although
relatively weak in the beginning, such a partnership will have real
prospects for gaining strength and opening up mutually beneficial
cooperation with all states and regional organizations. A similar
unfolding of events will precondition the development of multiple world
systems, in which interrelations with North America, Europe, NIS, and
other poles will be determined by economic rather than political factors.
Within the framework of the new world order, geopolitics will consequently
be supplanted by geoeconomics, a new and qualitatively higher level of
international relations. Such conditions will lead to a realistic
resolution of the traditional confrontation between North and South.</FONT></FONT>
</P>
<P><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="+0">Second, if its imperial and
consequently aggressive militaristic tendencies dominate, Russia, and the
geopolitical space organized around it, will develop into a political
entity with an antagonistic orientation toward the West. A possible
alliance with reactionary and fundamentalist forces will facilitate the
restoration of the Cold War confrontation.</FONT></FONT> </P>
<CENTER></CENTER>
<CENTER><B><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="+1">The Effects of a Return
to a Cold War Scenario</FONT></FONT></B></CENTER>
<P><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="+0">Although it is impossible to
describe the nature or duration of a new Cold War, it will be ruinous to
both sides. From a political standpoint, infringement on the sovereignty
of the NIS by attempting to restore superstate centralized structures on
the territory of the former Soviet Union will significantly strengthen
anti-central, anti-Russian national forces. The NIS will be transformed
into a breeding ground for internal conflict, which will pose a real
threat to global peace.</FONT></FONT> </P>
<P><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="+0">From an economic standpoint, if
Russia and the entire space subject to its influence evolve into an
anti-West antagonistic pole, continuing multibillion-dollar military
programs will be unleashed. These expenditures will deal a serious blow to
the implementation of social programs in all countries. In the long run,
this will significantly hamper efforts to improve living standards, and
even threaten existing levels.</FONT></FONT> </P>
<P><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="+0">From the standpoint of morale, a
revival of imperial structures may cause national forces to lose faith in
the historic possibility of creating their own truly sovereign states and
to lose confidence in Western assistance. By suppressing national energy
over a long period, the possible disintegration of the empire "from
within" may become inevitable.</FONT></FONT> </P>
<CENTER></CENTER>
<CENTER><B><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="+1">WESTERN ATTITUDES
TOWARD THE NEWLY INDEPENDENT STATES</FONT></FONT></B></CENTER>
<P><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="+0">On this basis, the importance of
Western attitudes toward Russia and the process taking place within the
entire NIS territory cannot be underestimated. As time has shown, those
attitudes have not always been alert or principled.</FONT></FONT> </P>
<P><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="+0">Until recently, Western
attention toward the geopolitical space of the former Soviet Union was
unduly concentrated on Russia: the interests of the remaining NIS were
practically ignored. Objectively speaking, perhaps this made sense in
terms of global security. After all, Russia is a pivotal strategic factor
and its civilized development constitutes the foremost guarantee of
security in the world. Russia is undeniably a great power, and it should
remain so. Its power, however, should not rest on its Cold War-period
military parity. Instead, Russia should act as an indomitable advocate of
the fundamental values of modern civilization; it should assume its own
share of responsibility for promoting peace and stability in the world.</FONT></FONT>
</P>
<P><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="+0">Obviously, the creation of a
belt of stable, strong, and democratic states around Russia is a major
precondition for Russia's own stable and democratic development. Zbigniew
Brzezinski made this argument a couple of years ago. Otherwise, unsettled
current and potential conflicts will flare up along the borders of the
Russian Federation. This will further complicate the already complex
process of democratic change in Russia and consolidate the position of
conservative, neo-imperialist forces.</FONT></FONT> </P>
<CENTER></CENTER>
<CENTER><B><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="+1">GEORGIAN SECURITY
ISSUES</FONT></FONT></B></CENTER>
<P><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="+0">In this context, I would like to
touch upon the security problems in Georgia and the Caucasus and their
significance to the comprehensive security of Europe. While the Caucasus
is at Europe's periphery, the processes currently under way there are not
peripheral to European security and stability. In today's context of
post-Cold War security globalization, Europe cannot afford piecemeal
security: its stability must be comprehensive. This European stability and
security cannot be achieved without safeguarding stability and security on
a regional level, which naturally includes the Caucasus region.</FONT></FONT>
</P>
<P><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="+0">Unfortunately, today's Caucasus
represents a unique knot of challenges and risks for European security. In
our region, we encounter regional and ethnic conflicts, aggressive
separatism and nationalism, as well as the so-called exotic risks: the
drug trade, terrorism, arms trafficking, the internationalization of
Mafia-type organizations, and uncontrolled migration. When speaking about
these problems, the word "threat" is for some reason avoided.
Yet the current dangers are more accurately described as "threats"
than merely "challenges" or "risks," especially given
the dangerous combination of threats that exists in the Caucasus.</FONT></FONT>
</P>
<P><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="+0">It is still possible to curb
those processes in the Caucasus, but if the international community fails
to give due attention and support to the region, there may be grave
consequences for European stability and security. One cannot imagine a
stable Russia without a stable Caucasus, and the key to Caucasus stability
lies with Georgia. Fortunately, positive changes can already be observed
in Georgia: we have begun the processes of peaceful conflict settlement,
overcoming the deep economic crisis, and consolidation. Nonetheless,
Russia, the Western countries, and international organizations including
NATO and the NACC must provide active support for these processes to be
viable.</FONT></FONT> </P>
<CENTER></CENTER>
<CENTER><B><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="+1">NATO'S ROLE IN
EAST-WEST RELATIONSHIPS</FONT></FONT></B></CENTER>
<P><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="+0">Finally, I would like to return
to the central theme, the relationship between the West and Russia, and
offer a few observations about NATO's role in it. Recently, NATO and the
East have begun to transform their relationship from confrontation to
partnership and cooperation. Although this process has been difficult and
even painful, it must continue to the point where it becomes irreversible.
To that end, mechanisms must be created to eventually solve the existing
problems within the European security system. The Partnership for Peace
(PFP) offers one such mechanism. From the Georgian viewpoint, this program
is a significant component of the new European security architecture. It
will facilitate the development of democratic institutions in former
Eastern-bloc countries including Russia, and the subsequent integration of
those countries into the European system.</FONT></FONT> </P>
<P><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="+0">Certain Russian political
circles claim that the PFP gives NATO and the U.S. a one-sided entry into
"Eurasian geostrategic space." We support neither this argument
nor assertions that PFP is geared against the NIS Collective Security
Treaty; that it infringes upon international commitments taken by its
member states; and that, prior to establishing any formal relations with
NATO, there must be an effective NIS defense alliance that will eventually
evolve into a military basis for a Eurasian collective security system.</FONT></FONT>
</P>
<P><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="+0">A very positive aspect of PFP is
that it is not directed against any given country and does not hinder at
any level the cooperation process between its member countries. For every
partner, PFP in fact sets equal initial provisions for cooperation, while
each has the opportunity to promote cooperation with its capabilities,
resources, intentions, and possibilities (including its military
potential).</FONT></FONT> </P>
<P><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE="+0">We hope that relationships
between East and West will develop according to the first, optimistic
scenario that I outlined. PFP can contribute effectively to this end. To
make this scenario a reality, however, there must be a joint effort
involving the West, NATO and other international organizations, and the
East; it must include the NIS and especially Russia which, as the leading
political and military force within the Commonwealth, has the greatest
responsibility for peace within the entire territory. It is only through a
joint effort that we can prevent another East-West confrontation.</FONT></FONT>
</P>
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