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<p align="center" class="style17">Table of Contents<br>
25th International Workshop - Rome '08</p>
<p align="center" class="style17">
<a href="/2008book/weissinger-preface.html">Preface- Dr. Roger<br>Weissinger-Baylon<br>Workshop Chairman<br></a>
<a href="/2008book/weissinger-overview.html">Workshop Chairman's Overview - Dr. Roger Weissinger-Baylon</a>
<a href="/2008book/joulwan.html">Opening Dinner Debate - <br>General George Joulwan<br>Former SACEUR</a>
<p>
<p align="center" class="style17">Part One<p>
<p align="center" class="style17">
<a href="/2008book/la-russa.html">Italian Defense Minister<br />
Ignazio La Russa
</a>
<a href="/2008book/browne.html">British Defense Minister<br />
The Rt Hon Des Browne
</a>
<a href="/2008book/gonul.html">Turkish Defense Minister<br />
Vecdi G�n�l
</a>
<a href="/2008book/di-paola.html">NATO Military Committee Chairman<br />
Admiral Giampaolo Di Paola
</a>
<a href="/2008book/zappata.html">Admiral Luciano Zappata<br />
Dep Supreme Allied
Commander Transformation
</a>
<a href="/2008book/camporini.html">Italian Chief of Defense<br />
General Vincenzo Camporini
</a>
<a href="/2008book/zappa.html">Alenia Aeronautica Chairman<br />
Dr. Giorgio Zappa
</a>
<br>Part Two<br>
<p align="center" class="style17">
<a href="/2008book/baramidze.html">Georgian Vice Prime Minister<br />
Giorgi Baramidze
</a>
<a href="/2008book/chizhov.html">Russian Amb to EU<br />
Vladimir Chizhov
</a>
<br>Part Three<br>
<p align="center" class="style17">
<a href="/2008book/eldon.html">British Amb to NATO<br />
Stewart Eldon
</a>
<a href="/2008book/akram.html">Pakistan's Amb to U.N.<br />
Munir Akram
</a>
<a href="/2008book/de-la-sabliere.html">French Amb to Italy<br />
Jean-Marc de la Sabli�re
</a>
<a href="/2008book/tkeshelashvili.html">Georgian Foreign Minister<br />
Eka Tkeshelashvili
</a>
<a href="/2008book/stefanini.html">Italian Amb to NATO<br />
Stefano Stefanini
</a>
<a href="/2008book/buzhinsky.html">Lt Gen Evgeniy Buzhinsky<br />
Russian Min of Defense
</a>
<a href="/2008book/winid.html">Polish Amb to NATO<br />
Boguslaw Winid
</a>
<br>Part Four<br>
<p align="center" class="style17">
<a href="/2008book/tegnelia.html">DTRA Director<br />
Dr. James Tegnelia
</a>
<a href="/2008book/rood.html">U.S. Under Sec of State<br />
John Rood
</a>
<a href="/2008book/joseph.html">Former Under Sec of State<br />
Amb Robert Joseph</a>
<a href="/2008book/berdennikov.html">Russian Amb-at-large<br />
Grigory V. Berdennikov
</a>
<a href="/2008book/benkert.html">U.S. Asst Sec of Defense<br />
Joseph Benkert
</a>
<a href="/2008book/flory.html">NATO Asst Sec Gen<br />
Peter Flory
</a>
<a href="/2008book/sedivy.html">NATO Asst Sec Gen<br />
Jiri Sedivy
</a>
<a href="/2008book/pfirter.html">OPCW Dir Gen<br />
Amb Rogelio Pfirter
</a>
<br>Part Five<br>
<p align="center" class="style17">
<a href="/2008book/lather.html">SHAPE Chief of Staff<br />
General Karl-Heinz Lather
</a>
<a href="/2008book/fitzgerald.html">Admiral Mark. P. Fitzgerald
<br />
Allied Joint Force Command Naples
</a>
<a href="/2008book/ildem.html">Turkish Amb to NATO<br />
Tacan Ildem
</a>
<a href="/2008book/schuwirth.html">Fmr SHAPE Chief of Staff<br />
General Rainer Schuwirth
</a>
<a href="/2008book/acosta.html">Global Impact CEO<br />
Ms. Renee Acosta
</a>
<a href="/2008book/soligan.html">Lt Gen James Soligan<br />
Allied Command-Transformation
</a>
<a href="/2008book/bagnall.html">Former UK Vice Chief of Defense Staff<br />
ACM Sir Anthony Bagnall
</a>
<br>Part Six
<p align="center" class="style17">
<a href="/2008book/volkman.html">U.S. Dir of Internat. Coop.<br />
Alfred Volkman
</a>
<a href="/2008book/tozzi.html">Major General Claudio Tozzi<br />
Italian Defense Ministry
</a>
<a href="/2008book/homberg.html">EADS Senior Vice Pres<br />
Thomas Homberg
</a>
<a href="/2008book/shephard.html">Northrop Grumman VP<br />
Mr. Timothy Shephard
</a>
<a href="/2008book/buckley.html">Thales Senior VP<br />
Dr. Edgar Buckley
</a>
<a href="/2008book/harris.html">Lockheed Martin Global Pres.<br />
Dr. Scott A. Harris
</a>
<a href="/2008book/schneider.html">AFCEA CEO<br />
Kent Schneider
</a>
<a href="/2008book/patterson.html">Mr. David Patterson<br />
Univ of Tennessee
</a>
<p align="center" class="style17">Part Seven
<p align="center" class="style17" style="margin-bottom: 0;">
<a href="/2008book/grimes.html">U.S. Asst Sec of Def<br />
Hon. John G. Grimes
</a>
<a href="/2008book/lentz.html">U.S. Dep Asst Sec of Def<br />
Robert Lentz
</a>
<a href="/2008book/aaviksoo.html">Estonian Defense Minister<br />
Jaak Aaviksoo
</a>
<a href="/2008book/bloechl.html">Microsoft, Managing Dir.<br />
Tim Bloechl
</a>
<a href="/2008book/wolf.html">Lt Gen Ulrich Wolf<br />
NATO CIS Service Agency Dir
</a>
<a href="/2008book/monteforte.html">Italian Milrep to NATO<br />
Vice Adm Ferdinando Sanfelice di Monteforte
</a>
<a href="/2008book/lintonen.html">Finnish Amb to UN<br />
Kirsti Lintonen
</a>
<a href="/2008book/silvestri.html">Dr. Stefano Silvestri<br />
Istituto Affari Internazionali
</a>
<a href="/2008book/yousfi.html">Algerian Amb to UN<br />
Youcef Yousfi
</a>
<a href="/2008book/karem.html">Egyptian Amb to EU<br />
Mahmoud Karem
</a>
<a href="/2008book/tarasyuk.html">Former Ukrainian Foreign Minister<br />
Borys Tarasyuk
</a>
</div>
</div>
<div id="content">
<div class="story">
<h2 class="workshop_year">Rome '08 Workshop</h2>
<!-- InstanceBeginEditable name="Main Content" -->
<h1>
Dealing with the Future Security Environment<B> </B></h1>
<h2 style="margin-bottom: 0;">
Admiral Luciano Zappata</h2>
<h2 style="margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 0;">Deputy Supreme Allied Commander Transformation </h2>
<h2 style="margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 0;"><img src="images/zappata.jpg" alt="Admiral Luciano Zappata" width="177" height="216"></h2>
<h2 style="margin-top: 0;">OPENING REMARKS</h2>
<p>
I am the last obstacle between you and the end of the workshop! This gives
me power over your personal freedom that I shall restrain from using provided
you show your gratitude at the end of the evening and toast my national
football team’s victory over Spain (this is my level of ambition for tonight)! </p>
<p>
I will start by thanking Roger for inviting me. This workshop had great
speakers, great speeches, and great discussions, and I received a lot of
important takeaways. Thank you, Roger! And many thanks to your very professional
staff, to the great work, and to your hospitality. </p>
<p>
Since tonight I represent the Italian CHOD, I am also very pleased to extend
to Roger, his staff, and all the participants at the workshop the warmest
appreciation of the Italian Minister of Defense and my CHOD, General Vincenzo
Camporini. When you introduced him, Roger, you presented him as an admiral;
actually, he is a true joint leader, so I am very happy for this special
award. </p>
<h2>Allied Command Transformation</h2>
<p>
As the Deputy Supreme Allied Commander for Transformation, I work with
this NATO organization to lead the military transformation of the Alliance.
To do this, my organization works with Allied Command Operations (ACO)
to support them in their mission, and with the individual nations that
deliver most of the capabilities. We do not want to duplicate any of their
efforts; rather, we provide a forum for bringing national processes together
in a coherent way to develop interoperable capabilities. And we do not
just work within NATO; often we work with partner countries, the countries
of the Mediterranean Dialogue (MD), the participants in the Istanbul Cooperation
Initiative (ICI), and with contact countries. NATO, however, is a reference
point for interoperability, and has a well-proven standing command-and-control
structure, which is well represented here by Allied Command Operations. </p>
<p>
Military transformation is a cycle in which concept development and experimentation,
innovation, analysis of lessons learned, and training combine to facilitate
change and adaptation to new challenges. It does this maintaining a delicate
balance between short-term requirements and a longer-term assessment of
threats and risks. It is not just hardware; rather, it is more mindset
and training. </p>
<p>
We know that life is change; life is transformation. Last night, on the
top of Castel Sant’ Angelo, this was very clear as I looked at this city
that is so often called “eternal.” But, what is new in our day? Are we
at peace? Are new military threats coming? What capabilities do we need?
How long will we be allowed to think, discuss, and prepare ourselves for
what is ahead? I am going to try to set the scene for your thoughts and
perhaps comments or questions. </p>
<h2>THE NEW FACTORS OF TRANSFORMATION </h2>
<p>
Admiral Di Paola said that the new factors of change are the “speed and
span “of change, and I fully agree. However, I would add to these factors
the worldwide reach of change and its extension to the space surrounding
our planet. This includes the discovery of a new parallel “ocean” whose
waves are electromagnetic (is its name Cyber?) but have the same characteristics
of all seas: positive and negative opportunities, trades and threats, treasures
and pirates, and so on. From the virtual beaches of this ocean we can sail
(or surf, using the slang of the new sailors, the Net people), without
space and time constraints, with new vessels provided to us by the IT era.
This beautiful opportunity is available to everybody in a transversal,
transnational, globalized way: One person is as powerful as an army. The
new cyber-ocean is making possible the new shipping routes—the Net—to a
new world. </p>
<p>
One other factor in the new change is that we all live in a glass house,
with the eyes and ears of the media ever present everywhere. </p>
<h2>THE FUTURE SECURITY ENVIRONMENT </h2>
<p>
During the course of this workshop we looked at various scenarios and discussed
them. We all saw how difficult it is to deal with them: In this global
world, local and global issues are closely linked, and each affects the
others, often unpredictably.I don’t want to make any attempts to predict
the future. Our wise Secretary General, in a recent speech, recalled that
the old criminal code of New York considered prediction to be a criminal
offense. I don’t like Castel Sant’ Angelo jails—they’re cold in winter,
hot in summer, with no air conditioning at all! </p>
<p>
But what can we expect in the future? How can we describe the future security
environment and the challenges we have ahead? To what extent does resolving
a problem create new ones? </p>
<p>
Recently we started a project called Multiple Futures. Rather than predict
the future—if we could do so, we would dedicate ourselves entirely to our
finances—we are trying to help illustrate the challenges and their implications
that decision-makers may face, and better understand and analyze how we
may best organize and equip our forces and define our future capability
requirements. We will be analyzing the global trends and key drivers in
the future security environment. This work will help us to understand the
resultant implications in terms of potential threats and risks to our populations
and values and then help frame the discussion on future challenges and
military implications in terms of roles and missions. For example, which
capabilities must we develop, and within what timeframe? Nations are now
fully involved in this process through their institutions and academia.
Our aim is to bring them together, without duplicating their efforts, and
so far we have had an enthusiastic response. </p>
<p>
Admiral Di Paola provided us with a few of the key drivers. The Secretary
General also talked about them in a recent speech. We have found through
discussions in different forums, that, although there is quite a uniform
view, there are some distinctions, which is good because it ensures that
we take into account most views. We want to be as inclusive as possible:
The future belongs to all. </p>
<h2>THE EUROPEAN DREAM </h2>
<p>
A few years ago I wrote a paper for the University of Pisa, located in
another historic Italian city, about a possible “European Dream,” in the
fashion of the “American Dream.” After the devastating Second World War,
our European fathers had a dream for us, their children: Never again to
have war in Europe. NATO has provided the stability and peace needed to
develop such a dream, and Europe is now growing. Some clear examples: Our
fathers succeeded in creating a common currency, the euro, and today we
can drive across our borders without controls and with no need to show
our EU citizen passports. The great changes in history have come from dreams.
I don’t know if we Europeans have a dream, but I believe we strongly need
one (and, I would add, we deserve one). This, I think, is the challenge
for our European political masters and our military. </p>
<p>
One dream I have is the birth of a European armed force. This seems to
me the best way that European nations can better contribute to NATO in
times of dramatically decreasing resources. But I am part of the military,
and the military can dream only at night. So let’s come back to reality. </p>
<p>
To close this event, I would like to involve all of you by having you ask
questions, some of which I hope will be provocative, because those provide
the best opportunities for open talks. </p>
<h2>QUESTIONS AND CONCLUDING REMARKS </h2>
<p>
Can we remain dominant in conventional wars while improving military-operational
effectiveness in the new irregular wars? Must our nations invest and cooperate
intensively to maintain technological supremacy in the traditional areas
of warfare? </p>
<p>
General Camporini told us about technology fascination. Indeed, we have
the same tension in our HQ, and our Commander, General Mattis, who is an
experienced soldier, warned us about surrendering to this fascination and
I agree very much. So, how much must we rely on technology? Is this an
area on which we must work, or do we need to look more at other aspects?
Where will C.A. lead us? </p>
<p>
Information technology, we were reminded, is a two-edged sword that enables
terrorist groups to fight on the same level as we do in the cyber-ocean
and to network in an unprecedented manner. Is this a new battlefield? How
much of it is the domain of the military, how much of it is national space,
and how much of it is international space, like the oceans? We have come
to rely on mobile phones, we are in the process of abdicating our map reading
in favor of the GPS, and we are surrendering more and more of our abilities
to networks, which in turn are becoming more vulnerable. As citizens of
the world, we feel personally under continuous surveillance by the Big
Brother anticipated by Mr. Orwell: through our credit cards, video cameras,
cell phones with or without GPS, e-mail, PDAs, networked games, Internet
shopping, and on and on. </p>
<p>
If climate change opens new sea routes and opportunities in the northern
seas, what capabilities will we need to ensure our security? Could the
Artic Ocean be subject to international status? </p>
<p>
If we are to conduct future operations with partner nations, should interoperability,
collaboration, and information sharing be our priorities if we want to
be effective and successful? Are we to link and synchronize our action
with other organizations? When implementing the comprehensive approach
at the operational level, in order to act in a coordinated way and apply
a wide spectrum of instruments, we need to network and develop synergies
with major actors, such as the EU, the U.N., and the various NGOs. </p>
<p>
The military needs to plan with a horizon of 10 to 20 years. However, we
heard concern that the political level is drawn to a nearer-term view by
the need to respond to the short-term needs of electorates. What are the
incentives to draw short-terms views toward the long term? </p>
<p>
In that respect, how do we combine the lessons learned from operations
in Afghanistan with those gained from realistic training? To what extent
must we lock on to the current battle and look at the long term? </p>
<p>
How much do we need to develop in support of the current operations, and
how much do we need to dedicate to the next fight? </p>
<p>
The military needs to be given a mission and political directives. If we
do not receive these, we might not be able to deliver what you want from
us and there might be a disconnect. What military problems do you want
us to solve? We might not be in agreement about what the future will be,
simply because a degree of unpredictability will always exist, but we will
share a vision. From my limited perspective, the more NATO and the EU have
in common, the better it will be for all of us. There is only a limited
pot of resources, and we are acutely aware of the need nations have to
develop one set of capabilities that can fit all. Ultimately, interoperability
remains the only guarantee that we have spent our money—however little—wisely.
In Afghanistan, the failure to do so cost lives. </p>
<p>
While the future may be filled with risks, every risk is a hidden opportunity.
A vision can help us walk to the future with eyes wide open. The scarcity
of resources and the threats to our peoples must become factors of unity.
We must remember that the world is so little that everybody can now rock
the boat! </p>
<p>
Now, more than ever, it is wise to quote an American soldier who used to
say, “Have a dream.” We need a vision of where we want to be in the next
years. Afghanistan, arguably, is suggesting a direction, but the short
and the long term must be combined, starting now, to ensure that global
security remains an achievable objective in the decades to come. </p>
<p>
We now have three different network enablers: oceans, cyber-space, and
space. Oceans interconnect nations through an interdependent network of
relationships. Cyber-space allows the free flow of information, the most
important commodity of the post-Industrial Age. Finally, space allows the
exploitation of freedom of movement and provides a new frontier. Together
these dimensions present tremendous opportunities and risks. But we must
continue to drive the transformational process to be more adaptive and
responsive to new challenges and changing conditions. </p>
<p></p>
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