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<p align="center" class="style17">Table of Contents<br>
25th International Workshop - Rome '08</p>
<p align="center" class="style17">
<a href="/2008book/weissinger-preface.html">Preface- Dr. Roger<br>Weissinger-Baylon<br>Workshop Chairman<br></a>
<a href="/2008book/weissinger-overview.html">Workshop Chairman's Overview - Dr. Roger Weissinger-Baylon</a>
<a href="/2008book/joulwan.html">Opening Dinner Debate - <br>General George Joulwan<br>Former SACEUR</a>
<p>
<p align="center" class="style17">Part One<p>
<p align="center" class="style17">
<a href="/2008book/la-russa.html">Italian Defense Minister<br />
Ignazio La Russa
</a>
<a href="/2008book/browne.html">British Defense Minister<br />
The Rt Hon Des Browne
</a>
<a href="/2008book/gonul.html">Turkish Defense Minister<br />
Vecdi G�n�l
</a>
<a href="/2008book/di-paola.html">NATO Military Committee Chairman<br />
Admiral Giampaolo Di Paola
</a>
<a href="/2008book/zappata.html">Admiral Luciano Zappata<br />
Dep Supreme Allied
Commander Transformation
</a>
<a href="/2008book/camporini.html">Italian Chief of Defense<br />
General Vincenzo Camporini
</a>
<a href="/2008book/zappa.html">Alenia Aeronautica Chairman<br />
Dr. Giorgio Zappa
</a>
<br>Part Two<br>
<p align="center" class="style17">
<a href="/2008book/baramidze.html">Georgian Vice Prime Minister<br />
Giorgi Baramidze
</a>
<a href="/2008book/chizhov.html">Russian Amb to EU<br />
Vladimir Chizhov
</a>
<br>Part Three<br>
<p align="center" class="style17">
<a href="/2008book/eldon.html">British Amb to NATO<br />
Stewart Eldon
</a>
<a href="/2008book/akram.html">Pakistan's Amb to U.N.<br />
Munir Akram
</a>
<a href="/2008book/de-la-sabliere.html">French Amb to Italy<br />
Jean-Marc de la Sabli�re
</a>
<a href="/2008book/tkeshelashvili.html">Georgian Foreign Minister<br />
Eka Tkeshelashvili
</a>
<a href="/2008book/stefanini.html">Italian Amb to NATO<br />
Stefano Stefanini
</a>
<a href="/2008book/buzhinsky.html">Lt Gen Evgeniy Buzhinsky<br />
Russian Min of Defense
</a>
<a href="/2008book/winid.html">Polish Amb to NATO<br />
Boguslaw Winid
</a>
<br>Part Four<br>
<p align="center" class="style17">
<a href="/2008book/tegnelia.html">DTRA Director<br />
Dr. James Tegnelia
</a>
<a href="/2008book/rood.html">U.S. Under Sec of State<br />
John Rood
</a>
<a href="/2008book/joseph.html">Former Under Sec of State<br />
Amb Robert Joseph</a>
<a href="/2008book/berdennikov.html">Russian Amb-at-large<br />
Grigory V. Berdennikov
</a>
<a href="/2008book/benkert.html">U.S. Asst Sec of Defense<br />
Joseph Benkert
</a>
<a href="/2008book/flory.html">NATO Asst Sec Gen<br />
Peter Flory
</a>
<a href="/2008book/sedivy.html">NATO Asst Sec Gen<br />
Jiri Sedivy
</a>
<a href="/2008book/pfirter.html">OPCW Dir Gen<br />
Amb Rogelio Pfirter
</a>
<br>Part Five<br>
<p align="center" class="style17">
<a href="/2008book/lather.html">SHAPE Chief of Staff<br />
General Karl-Heinz Lather
</a>
<a href="/2008book/fitzgerald.html">Admiral Mark. P. Fitzgerald
<br />
Allied Joint Force Command Naples
</a>
<a href="/2008book/ildem.html">Turkish Amb to NATO<br />
Tacan Ildem
</a>
<a href="/2008book/schuwirth.html">Fmr SHAPE Chief of Staff<br />
General Rainer Schuwirth
</a>
<a href="/2008book/acosta.html">Global Impact CEO<br />
Ms. Renee Acosta
</a>
<a href="/2008book/soligan.html">Lt Gen James Soligan<br />
Allied Command-Transformation
</a>
<a href="/2008book/bagnall.html">Former UK Vice Chief of Defense Staff<br />
ACM Sir Anthony Bagnall
</a>
<br>Part Six
<p align="center" class="style17">
<a href="/2008book/volkman.html">U.S. Dir of Internat. Coop.<br />
Alfred Volkman
</a>
<a href="/2008book/tozzi.html">Major General Claudio Tozzi<br />
Italian Defense Ministry
</a>
<a href="/2008book/homberg.html">EADS Senior Vice Pres<br />
Thomas Homberg
</a>
<a href="/2008book/shephard.html">Northrop Grumman VP<br />
Mr. Timothy Shephard
</a>
<a href="/2008book/buckley.html">Thales Senior VP<br />
Dr. Edgar Buckley
</a>
<a href="/2008book/harris.html">Lockheed Martin Global Pres.<br />
Dr. Scott A. Harris
</a>
<a href="/2008book/schneider.html">AFCEA CEO<br />
Kent Schneider
</a>
<a href="/2008book/patterson.html">Mr. David Patterson<br />
Univ of Tennessee
</a>
<p align="center" class="style17">Part Seven
<p align="center" class="style17" style="margin-bottom: 0;">
<a href="/2008book/grimes.html">U.S. Asst Sec of Def<br />
Hon. John G. Grimes
</a>
<a href="/2008book/lentz.html">U.S. Dep Asst Sec of Def<br />
Robert Lentz
</a>
<a href="/2008book/aaviksoo.html">Estonian Defense Minister<br />
Jaak Aaviksoo
</a>
<a href="/2008book/bloechl.html">Microsoft, Managing Dir.<br />
Tim Bloechl
</a>
<a href="/2008book/wolf.html">Lt Gen Ulrich Wolf<br />
NATO CIS Service Agency Dir
</a>
<a href="/2008book/monteforte.html">Italian Milrep to NATO<br />
Vice Adm Ferdinando Sanfelice di Monteforte
</a>
<a href="/2008book/lintonen.html">Finnish Amb to UN<br />
Kirsti Lintonen
</a>
<a href="/2008book/silvestri.html">Dr. Stefano Silvestri<br />
Istituto Affari Internazionali
</a>
<a href="/2008book/yousfi.html">Algerian Amb to UN<br />
Youcef Yousfi
</a>
<a href="/2008book/karem.html">Egyptian Amb to EU<br />
Mahmoud Karem
</a>
<a href="/2008book/tarasyuk.html">Former Ukrainian Foreign Minister<br />
Borys Tarasyuk
</a>
</div>
</div>
<div id="content">
<div class="story">
<h2 class="workshop_year">Rome '08 Workshop</h2>
<!-- InstanceBeginEditable name="Main Content" -->
<h1>
Preparing for International Crises<B> </B></h1>
<h2 style="margin-bottom: 0;">
Dr. Stefano Silvestri</h2>
<h2 style="margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 0;"><B> Istituto Affari Internazionali </B></h2>
<h2 style="margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 0;"><img src="images/silvestri.jpg" alt="Dr. Stefano Silvestri" width="82" height="103"></h2>
<h2 style="margin-top: 0;">THE DIFFICULTY IN IDENTIFYING A WINNING STRATEGY </h2>
<p>
I think it is very difficult to consider what to do in the future because
it is very difficult to assess the possibilities. For instance, we may
find ourselves in a very difficult situation very shortly in Turkey. What
should we do if the Turkish Constitutional Court bans the present government
party? Who will be our friends? It will be very difficult to decide because
very bad consequences can result from all actions. This kind of thing can
happen in Turkey as well as elsewhere, because presently we are involved
in a very large number of crises throughout the world for which we do not
have a clear way of identifying a winning strategy, let alone an exit strategy. </p>
<p>
We know, for instance, that Asia will be at the center of world actions
during the next 20 to 40 years but we do not know how. When we try to understand
what China is, what China will do in the next 20 or so years, we have more
question marks than responses. During the coffee break, we talked about
how intelligence is one thing and knowledge is another, and that the two
may go into different directions at times. For instance, I have difficulty
understanding the Chinese regime’s definition of the Chinese Constitution.
The definition is that China is a democratic people’s dictatorship under
the direction of the Communist Party. Now, if someone can explain this
to me so that I truly understand it, we might be able to project something
about China’s future, but I doubt that anyone is capable of that today. </p>
<p>
Of course, there are other problems, including demographics. Someone said
recently that, given the fact that China will have about 30 million more
men than women in 2030 or 2040, there will be a more bellicose regime.
I do not know if that is true or not, but apparently it is a statistical
probability. However, China will also have important vulnerabilities. The
country, as well as Japan, India, and all the major Asian powers, will
be vulnerable in the energy field and will have important food shortages,
though Japan will have the money to pay for food. These kinds of problems
may create a very difficult international situation in which the management
of violent crises will become much more uncertain and difficult. </p>
<h2>PREPARING FOR A NEW INTERNATIONAL SITUATION </h2>
<p>
How do we prepare for that? Right now I think we are not prepared. If I
look at what we have on the ground today and what we plan to have, we do
not have many men. <I>Quantity</I> is lacking, and we are more and more involved
in the management of crises in which the number of men we can put on the
ground is more and more important. </p>
<p>
We also lack <I>quality</I> in the sense of capabilities. Sometimes we have very
good capabilities to fight a war that we will never fight, but we do not
have the necessary capability to fight the real operations we are engaged
in. </p>
<p>
We also lack s<I>trategies.</I> Do we have clear strategies on how to deal with
the number of situations in which we are involved? Sometimes, it looks
as though we are engaged in tourism. In Chad, for instance, we appear to
be engaged in a kind of military tourism. </p>
<p>
Finally, we lack<I> civilian-military integration.</I> Are we capable of conceiving
a strategy that is both civilian and military, with a single command and
a single strategy? If not, then probably we are undermining both civilian
intervention and military intervention; they tend to act against each other. </p>
<p>
The next American presidential election is another factor of uncertainty,
which may result in <I>high pressure to abruptly change direction</I>. We heard
the very interesting speech made by the Pakistani ambassador. I do not
want us to find ourselves in a situation in which we have to choose whether
to lose Afghanistan or lose Pakistan. Regarding Iran and other areas we
may also find ourselves needing to abruptly change direction. That in part
would be forced upon us by the absence of capabilities, strategies, qualities,
and quantities. </p>
<p>
I would like to conclude by simply stating that western Europe is practically
the only area in which military expenditures are diminishing. This should
give us an idea of our present security culture, which we should perhaps
discuss with more intensity. </p>
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