|
Server : Apache/2.4.62 System : FreeBSD fbsdweb2.web.rcn.net 14.1-RELEASE FreeBSD 14.1-RELEASE releng/14.1-n267679-10e31f0946d8 GENERIC amd64 User : www ( 80) PHP Version : 8.3.8 Disable Function : NONE Directory : /domains/roger.dnai/2008book/ |
Upload File : |
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN"
"http://www.w3.org/TR/html4/loose.dtd">
<html><!-- InstanceBegin template="/Templates/2008template.dwt" codeOutsideHTMLIsLocked="false" -->
<head>
<meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<!-- InstanceBeginEditable name="doctitle" -->
<title>CSDR 2008: Proliferation Threats: Thinking in Today's Context</title>
<!-- InstanceEndEditable -->
<link rel="stylesheet" href="/2002Book/emx_nav_right.css" type="text/css">
<link rel="stylesheet" href="/css/rome08.css" type="text/css" />
<style type="text/css">
<!--
.style5 {font-weight: bold;
color: #000000;
font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;
font-size: large;
}
.style7 {font-size: 2px}
.style8 {font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif}
.style17 {
font-size: x-small;
font-weight: bold;
}
.style18 {font-size: x-small}
.style217 {font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif}
.style219 {font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; }
.style19 {font-size: 11px}
.style20 {
color: #006699;
font-size: large;
}
.style21 {font-size: small}
.style22 {font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small; }
-->
</style>
<style type="text/css">
<!--
.style23 {font-size: medium}
.style24 {font-size: large}
.style25 {
color: #006699;
font-weight: bold;
font-style: italic;
}
.style26 {
color: #006699;
font-size: medium;
font-weight: bold;
}
.style27 {
color: #006699;
font-size: medium;
}
.style293 {
font-size: large;
color: black;
}
-->
</style>
<!-- InstanceBeginEditable name="head" --><!-- InstanceEndEditable -->
</head>
<body>
<!-- Start of StatCounter Code -->
<script type="text/javascript">
var sc_project=3086157;
var sc_invisible=0;
var sc_partition=27;
var sc_security="33bf0688";
</script>
<script type="text/javascript" src="http://www.statcounter.com/counter/counter_xhtml.js"></script><noscript><div class="statcounter"><a class="statcounter" href="http://www.statcounter.com/"><img class="statcounter" src="http://c28.statcounter.com/3086157/0/33bf0688/0/" alt="free website hit counter" /></a></div></noscript>
<!-- End of StatCounter Code -->
<div class="skipLinks">skip to: <a href="#content">page content</a> | <a href="../book2007TEST/2002Book/pageNav">links on this page</a> | <a href="#globalNav">site navigation</a> | <a href="#siteInfo">footer (site information)</a> </div>
<div id="masthead">
<div id="globalNav" style="margin-top:15px;"> <div id="globalLink">
<a href="/index.html" id="gl1" class="glink"><span class="style18"><span class="style19">Home</span></span></a><a href="/index.html#about" class="glink"><span class="style18"><span class="style19">Contact Us</span></span></a><a href="/2008book/joulwan.html" id="gl2" class="glink"><span class="style18"><span class="style19">Rome '08</span></span></a><a href="/2007book/joulwan07" id="gl2" class="glink"><span class="style18"><span class="style19">Paris '07</span></span></a><a href="/2006book/jung.htm" id="gl2" class="glink"><span class="style18"><span class="style19">Berlin '06</span></span></a><a href="/2005book/alliotmarie.htm" id="gl2" class="glink"><span class="style18"><span class="style19">Paris '05</span></span></a><a href="/2004book/PeterStruckKeynote.htm" id="gl3" class="glink"><span class="style18"><span class="style19">Berlin '04</span></span></a><a href="/moscow03/weissingerbaylon.htm" id="gl4" class="glink"><span class="style18"><span class="style19">Moscow '03</span></span></a><a href="/berlin02/scharping.htm" id="gl5" class="glink"><span class="style18"><span class="style19">Berlin '02</span></span></a><a href="/2001Book/workshop2001.htm" id="gl6" class="glink"><span class="style18"><span class="style19">Helsinger '01</span></span></a><a href="/2000Book/workshop2000.htm" id="gl6" class="glink"><span class="style18"><span class="style19">Berlin '00</span></span></a><a href="/99Book/workshop1999.htm" id="gl6" class="glink"><span class="style18"><span class="style19">Budapest '99</span></span></a><a href="/98Book/workshop98.htm" id="gl6" class="glink"><span class="style18"><span class="style19">Vienna '98</span></span></a><a href="/97Book/workshop97.htm" id="gl6" class="glink"><span class="style18"><span class="style19">Prague '97</span></span></a><a href="/96Book/Workshop96.htm" id="gl7" class="glink"><span class="style18"><span class="style19">Warsaw '96</span></span></a>
<a href="/95Book/95Workshop.htm" id="gl8" class="glink"><span class="style18"><span class="style19">Dresden '95</span></span></a></div>
</div>
</div>
<div id="pagecell1" style="top:65px;">
<div id="breadCrumb" style="text-align:center;">
<img src="/images/header.gif" alt="Center for Strageic Decision Research: Celebrating over 25 years of international dialogue. International workshop on global security." width="618" height="99" style="padding:20px 10px;" />
</div>
<div id="pageNav">
<div id="sectionLinks">
<p align="center" class="style17">Table of Contents<br>
25th International Workshop - Rome '08</p>
<p align="center" class="style17">
<a href="/2008book/weissinger-preface.html">Preface- Dr. Roger<br>Weissinger-Baylon<br>Workshop Chairman<br></a>
<a href="/2008book/weissinger-overview.html">Workshop Chairman's Overview - Dr. Roger Weissinger-Baylon</a>
<a href="/2008book/joulwan.html">Opening Dinner Debate - <br>General George Joulwan<br>Former SACEUR</a>
<p>
<p align="center" class="style17">Part One<p>
<p align="center" class="style17">
<a href="/2008book/la-russa.html">Italian Defense Minister<br />
Ignazio La Russa
</a>
<a href="/2008book/browne.html">British Defense Minister<br />
The Rt Hon Des Browne
</a>
<a href="/2008book/gonul.html">Turkish Defense Minister<br />
Vecdi G�n�l
</a>
<a href="/2008book/di-paola.html">NATO Military Committee Chairman<br />
Admiral Giampaolo Di Paola
</a>
<a href="/2008book/zappata.html">Admiral Luciano Zappata<br />
Dep Supreme Allied
Commander Transformation
</a>
<a href="/2008book/camporini.html">Italian Chief of Defense<br />
General Vincenzo Camporini
</a>
<a href="/2008book/zappa.html">Alenia Aeronautica Chairman<br />
Dr. Giorgio Zappa
</a>
<br>Part Two<br>
<p align="center" class="style17">
<a href="/2008book/baramidze.html">Georgian Vice Prime Minister<br />
Giorgi Baramidze
</a>
<a href="/2008book/chizhov.html">Russian Amb to EU<br />
Vladimir Chizhov
</a>
<br>Part Three<br>
<p align="center" class="style17">
<a href="/2008book/eldon.html">British Amb to NATO<br />
Stewart Eldon
</a>
<a href="/2008book/akram.html">Pakistan's Amb to U.N.<br />
Munir Akram
</a>
<a href="/2008book/de-la-sabliere.html">French Amb to Italy<br />
Jean-Marc de la Sabli�re
</a>
<a href="/2008book/tkeshelashvili.html">Georgian Foreign Minister<br />
Eka Tkeshelashvili
</a>
<a href="/2008book/stefanini.html">Italian Amb to NATO<br />
Stefano Stefanini
</a>
<a href="/2008book/buzhinsky.html">Lt Gen Evgeniy Buzhinsky<br />
Russian Min of Defense
</a>
<a href="/2008book/winid.html">Polish Amb to NATO<br />
Boguslaw Winid
</a>
<br>Part Four<br>
<p align="center" class="style17">
<a href="/2008book/tegnelia.html">DTRA Director<br />
Dr. James Tegnelia
</a>
<a href="/2008book/rood.html">U.S. Under Sec of State<br />
John Rood
</a>
<a href="/2008book/joseph.html">Former Under Sec of State<br />
Amb Robert Joseph</a>
<a href="/2008book/berdennikov.html">Russian Amb-at-large<br />
Grigory V. Berdennikov
</a>
<a href="/2008book/benkert.html">U.S. Asst Sec of Defense<br />
Joseph Benkert
</a>
<a href="/2008book/flory.html">NATO Asst Sec Gen<br />
Peter Flory
</a>
<a href="/2008book/sedivy.html">NATO Asst Sec Gen<br />
Jiri Sedivy
</a>
<a href="/2008book/pfirter.html">OPCW Dir Gen<br />
Amb Rogelio Pfirter
</a>
<br>Part Five<br>
<p align="center" class="style17">
<a href="/2008book/lather.html">SHAPE Chief of Staff<br />
General Karl-Heinz Lather
</a>
<a href="/2008book/fitzgerald.html">Admiral Mark. P. Fitzgerald
<br />
Allied Joint Force Command Naples
</a>
<a href="/2008book/ildem.html">Turkish Amb to NATO<br />
Tacan Ildem
</a>
<a href="/2008book/schuwirth.html">Fmr SHAPE Chief of Staff<br />
General Rainer Schuwirth
</a>
<a href="/2008book/acosta.html">Global Impact CEO<br />
Ms. Renee Acosta
</a>
<a href="/2008book/soligan.html">Lt Gen James Soligan<br />
Allied Command-Transformation
</a>
<a href="/2008book/bagnall.html">Former UK Vice Chief of Defense Staff<br />
ACM Sir Anthony Bagnall
</a>
<br>Part Six
<p align="center" class="style17">
<a href="/2008book/volkman.html">U.S. Dir of Internat. Coop.<br />
Alfred Volkman
</a>
<a href="/2008book/tozzi.html">Major General Claudio Tozzi<br />
Italian Defense Ministry
</a>
<a href="/2008book/homberg.html">EADS Senior Vice Pres<br />
Thomas Homberg
</a>
<a href="/2008book/shephard.html">Northrop Grumman VP<br />
Mr. Timothy Shephard
</a>
<a href="/2008book/buckley.html">Thales Senior VP<br />
Dr. Edgar Buckley
</a>
<a href="/2008book/harris.html">Lockheed Martin Global Pres.<br />
Dr. Scott A. Harris
</a>
<a href="/2008book/schneider.html">AFCEA CEO<br />
Kent Schneider
</a>
<a href="/2008book/patterson.html">Mr. David Patterson<br />
Univ of Tennessee
</a>
<p align="center" class="style17">Part Seven
<p align="center" class="style17" style="margin-bottom: 0;">
<a href="/2008book/grimes.html">U.S. Asst Sec of Def<br />
Hon. John G. Grimes
</a>
<a href="/2008book/lentz.html">U.S. Dep Asst Sec of Def<br />
Robert Lentz
</a>
<a href="/2008book/aaviksoo.html">Estonian Defense Minister<br />
Jaak Aaviksoo
</a>
<a href="/2008book/bloechl.html">Microsoft, Managing Dir.<br />
Tim Bloechl
</a>
<a href="/2008book/wolf.html">Lt Gen Ulrich Wolf<br />
NATO CIS Service Agency Dir
</a>
<a href="/2008book/monteforte.html">Italian Milrep to NATO<br />
Vice Adm Ferdinando Sanfelice di Monteforte
</a>
<a href="/2008book/lintonen.html">Finnish Amb to UN<br />
Kirsti Lintonen
</a>
<a href="/2008book/silvestri.html">Dr. Stefano Silvestri<br />
Istituto Affari Internazionali
</a>
<a href="/2008book/yousfi.html">Algerian Amb to UN<br />
Youcef Yousfi
</a>
<a href="/2008book/karem.html">Egyptian Amb to EU<br />
Mahmoud Karem
</a>
<a href="/2008book/tarasyuk.html">Former Ukrainian Foreign Minister<br />
Borys Tarasyuk
</a>
</div>
</div>
<div id="content">
<div class="story">
<h2 class="workshop_year">Rome '08 Workshop</h2>
<!-- InstanceBeginEditable name="Main Content" -->
<h1>
Proliferation Threats: Thinking in Today's Context </h1>
<h2 style="margin-bottom: 0;">
Ambassador Robert Joseph</h2>
<h2 style="margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 0;">Former U.S. Under Secretary of State </h2>
<p align="center" style="margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 0;"><img src="images/joseph.jpg" alt="Ambassador Robert Joseph" width="104" height="124"></p>
<p style="margin-top: 0;">
Thank you very much for the opportunity to be part of this very impressive
conference. I think I am unique on the panel in the sense that today I
speak as a private citizen and it may be for that reason that just before
we began the panel discussion, Dr. Tegnelia asked me to summarize the various
talks, including Under Secretary Rood's lunch address, and to provide a
foundation for a very active discussion. </p>
<p>
Normally, trying to summarize a series of presentations like we have had
this afternoon would be mission impossible but I think that all the panelists
have done such a superb job in laying out the issues concerning both the
threat and the response associated with proliferation that I will be able
to limit myself to five points. </p>
<h2>THINKING OF PROLIFERATION THREATS IN TODAY'S CONTEXT </h2>
<p>
We need to think about the proliferation threats and our response to those
threats in the context of the twenty-first century security environment.
Three principal challenges have been emphasized in the discussions today: </p>
<UL>
<LI>
The first challenge is the challenge from states who are seeking weapons
of mass destruction— nuclear, chemical, biological—and the means of delivering,
including ballistic missiles. These include Iran and North Korea, other
names, such as Syria, have been mentioned in our discussion. This is not
an exhaustive list. </LI>
<LI>
The second challenge comes from non-state actors. There has been an emphasis
on terrorists who are seeking weapons of mass destruction, not to use them
as weapons of last resort as we used to think about them during the Cold
War, but actually to use them as weapons of choice against civilian populations.
The other side of the non-state actor challenge that has been mentioned
is the supply networks and standing out in that context is A. Q. Khan.
With his associates, A. Q. Khan provided non-stop shopping for not just
enrichment, not just the blue prints and the centrifuges for enrichment
but also the warhead design, something that I think you have all been reading
about most recently in the news. </LI>
<LI>
The third challenge is the need to ensure that the expansion of nuclear
energy is done in a way that reduces the risks of proliferation and specifically
the need to discourage—we hope stop—the spread of sensitive technologies
associated with enrichment and reprocessing. These challenges of course
are all unrelated. I personally believe that if we fail with North Korea,
if we fail with Iran, we are much more likely to have that cascade of proliferation
that will stem from the expansion of nuclear energy around the globe and
the access to sensitive materials in the context of nuclear terrorism will
also grow. </LI>
</UL>
<h2>A COMPREHENSIVE APPROACH </h2>
<p>
Each of these major proliferation challenges requires a comprehensive approach. </p>
<p>
For the first two, for states and non-state threats, we need to build what
has been called the defense-in-depth or layered defense against the proliferation
threat and this begins of course with <I>prevention</I>, eliminating materials,
securing materials, interdicting materials to ensure that proliferant states
or terrorists do not gain access to these capabilities. </p>
<p>
But we know that we are not going to be one hundred percent successful
in prevention. We know that from our experience. So we need a second layer
of defense and that second layer of defense is <I>protection</I>.We need to protect
against the threat and here we need new capabilities again for the 21<SUP>st
</SUP>century. We have talked a lot about missile defense in that context, not
a missile defense that would threaten Russia but a missile defense that
would be sized appropriately against Iran or North Korea, the type of missile
defense that the United States and our allies here in Europe as well as
our allies in Asia are building. </p>
<p>
We also have talked about some of the capabilities that we require for
biological and chemical threats including better detection and medical
counter-measures. We also need new capabilities for the 21<SUP>st</SUP> century for
nuclear terrorism. Here we need to emphasize the capability to detect the
movement of nuclear materials or nuclear weapons, the ability to provide
for forensic capabilities that will give us the ability to attribute where
those materials may have come from. All of these, I think, play into both
deterrence and defense aspects of this second part of our comprehensive
or layered defense. </p>
<p>
And the third part has been referred to as response or consequence management,
a critical capability that is being addressed by the Alliance. </p>
<p>
As for the comprehensive approach needed for the third challenge, challenge
from the spread of nuclear energy, shaping the future of nuclear energy
in a way that is less likely to contribute to proliferation has been described
by Ambassador Berdennikov and John Rood earlier and I will not comment
any longer on that. </p>
<h2>USING ALL THE TOOLS OF NATIONAL
AND INTERNATIONAL POWER </h2>
<p>
In our comprehensive approach, we need to employ all of the tools of national
and international power and statecraft: </p>
<UL>
<LI>
Diplomacy both bilateral and multilateral; </LI>
<LI>
The economic or financial tools that we have talked about—this runs from
everything from sanctions to the disruption of proliferation transactions
in the international financial market; </LI>
<LI>
Intelligence—Intelligence is a consistent theme that we have heard from
our speakers. In the context of Intelligence, we have had some spectacular
successes and I would put Libya and the unraveling of the A. Q. Khan network
in that category. We have also had some in my view again as a private citizen,
some spectacular failures and Iraq WMD stands out in that regard. We need
to learn from these experiences—both the successes and the failures. We
need to improve our ability to collect and to analyze Intelligence, and
to share Intelligence in appropriate channels. We must maximize the use
of Intelligence and minimize the factors that would weaken our ability
to understand and act on the threat. </LI>
<LI>
We also need to use our scientific and technical tools: We have talked
about that in terms of detection and attribution and some of the new capabilities
that we need for this new century. </LI>
<LI>
And we also need to take into account and this has not been raised, the
need for a strong, credible, safe, and reliable nuclear deterrent. Extended
deterrence is a major non-proliferation tool that if undermined, could
very much lead to additional proliferation in a number of regions including
Northeast Asia and in the Gulf, two regions that are vitally important
to all of us. </LI>
</UL>
<h2>INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION </h2>
<p>
International cooperation is key despite the prevailing caricature of the
Bush administration. We have heard time and time again from these presenters
about new initiatives that have been undertaken: </p>
<UL>
<LI>
In 2002, the Global Initiative of the G8 to provide more funding, billions
of dollars more, for non-proliferation assistance programs, the non-Lugar
type programs. </LI>
<LI>
In 2003, the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI), an important tool
mentioned by a number of speakers. </LI>
<LI>
In 2004, U.N. Resolution 1540, which also came from the Bush administration
and was supported by Russia as well and by other states. </LI>
<LI>
In 2006, the U.S. and Russia got together on the Global Initiative to Combat
Nuclear Terrorism. </LI>
<LI>
There was reference made to last year's statement of the two presidents
in July, again shaping the future of nuclear energy, trying to encourage
countries to forego the option of enrichment and reprocessing, forego the
sensitive technologies that are associated with proliferation in exchange
for a very attractive deal, in exchange for fuel assurances, in exchange
for resolving some of the very difficult issues associated with the back
end of the fuel cycle. It is a very innovative approach that will rely
not just on the U.S. and Russia, but on all of the suppliers and the beneficiaries
as well. </LI>
</UL>
<p>
So there are a number of very important initiatives out there. </p>
<h2>THE DEMONSTRATION OF POLITICAL RESOLVE </h2>
<p>
The last point I would make is that no matter how innovative we may be,
no matter how good our capabilities may be, we will not succeed without
resolve, and especially the demonstration of political resolve over time.
And here I would state that we need to demonstrate resolve with countries
like Iran. Iran is an incredibly complex problem, but I think we know what
we need to do with regard to Iran. The problem is that we have a series
of very difficult choices—there is no easy choice. Every choice that is
out there for dealing with Iran in an effective way entails costs but we
must be willing to pay those costs. </p>
<p>
And finally just a note on Russia given that it has come up in discussions
both yesterday and today. In my view, which I am sure we all share, we
need to ensure that there is mutual respect in our relationship with Russia.
We need to build on opportunities with Russia: the Global Initiative and
the Nuclear Energy Initiative are two cases in point of where our interests
coincide. But we also need to deal with Russia with a sense of resolve,
resolve in the context of a commitment to our principles: our principles
of democracy, of human rights, of national sovereignty, and of territorial
integrity. We cannot move away from a principled position and enforce that
position with resolve. </p>
<!-- InstanceEndEditable --></div>
</div>
<div class="style8" id="siteInfo"> <a href="#">Top of page </a> | <a href="../index.html">Home</a> | ©2009
Center for Strategic Decision Research</div>
</div>
<br>
</body>
<!-- InstanceEnd --></html>