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<title>CSDR 24th International Workshop on Global Security, Michele Alliot-Marie, Herve Morin, General Henri Bentegeat, General Jean-Louis Georgelin, General James L. Jones, Marc Perrin de Brichambaut, Patrick Auroy, Kent Schneider, Ambassador Mahmoud Karem, Admiral Giampaolo Di Paola, General Franciszek Gagor, Dr. Arthur T. Hopkins, George Joulwan, Borys Tarasyuk, Jean de Ponton d'Amécourt, General Rainer Schuwirth, General Egon Ramms, Gen Ulrich Wolf, Louis Gallois, Marwan Lahoud, Denis Ranque, Edgar Buckley, Assistant Secretary John Grimes, Tim Bloechl, EADS, Northrop Grumman, Microsoft, Robert Ranquet, Admiral Jean Betermier, Giovanni Bertolone, Robert Ranquet, Alenia Aeronautica, Roger Weissinger-Baylon, WMD, Weaapons of Mass Destruction, NATO, EU, UN, OSCE, Paris Air Show, French Defense Minister, Afghanistan, Iraq, Kosovo, Climate Change, Energy, Boeing</title>
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<p><span class="style293">international workshop series<br>
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<p align="center" class="style17"><strong>Table of Contents<br>
24th International Workshop - </strong><strong>Paris '07</strong></p>
<p align="center" class="style17"><span class="style18"><span class="style219"> </span>
<span class="style219"><a href="/2007book/weissinger07.htm">Preface- Dr. Roger<br>
Weissinger-Baylon<br>
Workshop Chairman<br>
</a></span><span class="style219"><a href="/2007book/ranquet07.htm">Foreword - Ing General<br>
Robert Ranquet<br>
</a></span>
<span class="style219"><a href="/2007book/joulwan07.htm">Opening Dinner Debate - <br>
General George Joulwan<br>
Former SACEUR<br>
</a></span></span><br>
Global security challenges: <br>
Is there hope for <br>
Afghanistan or Iraq?<br>
</p>
<p align="center" class="style17"><a href="/2007book/bentegeat07.htm">General Henri Bentegeat<br>
President of EU Military Committee</a>
<a href="/2007book/georgelin07">Gen Jean-Louis Georgelin C<strong>hef d’état</strong>-<strong>major</strong> des armées - France</a><a href="/2007book/amecourt07.htm">Mr. Jean de Ponton d'Amecourt - French Dir of Strategic Affairs</a><a href="/2007book/schuwirth07.htm">General Rainer Schuwirth <br>
Chief of Staff, SHAPE</a><a href="/2007book/ramms07.htm">General Egon Ramms <br>
Commander, Allied Joint Force Cmd, Brunssum</a>
<a href="/2007book/akram07.htm">
Amb Munir Akram<br>
Pakistan's Amb to UN</a><a href="/2007book/zhan07.htm">
Major Gen ZHAN Maohai<br>
Vice Chair of China IISS</a><br>
Energy & Climate Change<br>
<p align="center" class="style17"><a href="/2007book/jones07.htm">General James Jones<br>
Former Supreme Allied Commander Europe</a><a href="/2007book/ashton07.htm">Mr. John Ashton<br>
UK Special Repr for Climate Change</a><br>
Security in the Balkans & Black Sea region<br>
<p align="center" class="style17"><a href="/2007book/baramidze07.htm">Georgian Vice Prime Minister Giorgi Baramidze</a>
<a href="/2007book/tarasyuk07.htm">Ukrainian Foreign Minister Borys Tarasyuk</a>
<a href="/2007book/mediu07.htm">Albanian Defense Minister Fatmir Mediu</a><a href="/2007book/bliznakov07.htm">Bulgarian Defense Minister Veselin Bliznakov</a><a href="/2007book/bezhuashvili07.htm">Georgian Foreign Min Gela Bezhuashvili</a><a href="/2007book/ildem07.htm">Ambassador <strong> Tacan Ildem</strong><br>
Turkish Amb to NATO</a><a href="/2007book/buzhinsky07.htm">
Lt Gen Evgeniy Buzhinsky<br>
Russian Ministry of Defense</a><br>
Time for new strategies?<br>
NATO after the Riga Summit<br>
<p align="center" class="style17"><a href="/2007book/eldon07.htm">Amb Stewart Eldon<br>
UK Ambassador to NATO</a>
<a href="/2007book/orgaz07.htm">Amb Pablo Benavides Orgaz<br>
Spanish Amb to NATO</a>
<a href="/2007book/stefanini07.htm">Amb Stefano Stefanini <br>
Italian Amb to NATO</a><a href="/2007book/dipaola07.htm">Adm Giampaolo Di Paola<br>
Italian Chief of Defense<br>
</a><a href="/2007book/gagor07.htm">Gen Franciszek Gagor Polish Chief of Defense</a><br>
How can the EU, NATO, the OSCE, and UN reform?<br>
<p align="center" class="style17"><a href="/2007book/brichambaut07.htm">Amb Marc Perrin de Brichambaut<br>
OSCE Secretary General </a><a href="/2007book/lintonen07.htm">Amb Kirsti Lintonen Finnish Amb to UN</a>
<a href="/2007book/brodi07.htm">Amb Gabor Brodi<br>
Hungarian Amb to UN</a><a href="/2007book/rinkevics07.htm">State Sec Edgars Rinkevics - Latvian MOD</a><a href="/2007book/linkevicius07.htm">Amb Linas Linkevicius<br>
Lithuanian Amb to NATO<br>
</a>
<a href="/2007book/chizhov07.htm">Amb Vladimir Chizhov<br>
Russian Amb to the EU<br>
</a><a href="/2007book/monteforte07.htm">Vice Adm Ferdinando Sanfelice di Monteforte<br>
Italian Mil Repr to NATO</a><br>
Dealing with middle east:<br>Views from North Africa
<p align="center" class="style17"><a href="/2007book/yousfi07.htm">Amb Youcef Yousfi<br>
Algerian Amb to UN and former Foreign Minister</a><a href="/2007book/karem07.htm">Amb Mahmoud Karem<br>
Egyptian Amb to EU and Repr to Med Dialogue</a><a href="/2007book/alem07.htm">Amb Menouar Alem<br>
Moroccan Amb to EU and Repr to Med Dialogue<br>
</a>
<p align="center" class="style17">WMD and cyber threats
<p align="center" class="style17"><a href="/2007book/pfirter07.htm">Amb Rogelio Pfirter<br>
Director-General, OPCW</a>
<a href="/2007book/hopkins07.htm">Dr. Arthur T. Hopkins<br>
Assist to U.S. Sec of Defense - Nuclear & Chemical & Biological</a><a href="/2007book/aaviksoo07.htm">Estonian Defense Minister<br>
Jaak Aaviksoo</a><a href="/2007book/grimes07.htm">Hon John Grimes<br>
US Assistant Secretary of Defense - NII<br>
</a><a href="/2007book/lentz07.htm">Mr. Robert Lentz<br>
US Dep Asst Sec for NII<br>
</a><a href="/2007book/wolf07.htm">Lt General Ulrich Wolf<br>
Dir of NATO CIS Service Agency<br>
</a>
<a href="/2007book/bloechl07.htm">Mr. Tim Bloechl<br>
Microsoft Exec Director</a>
<p align="center" class="style17">How industry can help address the global challenges<p align="center" class="style17"><a href="/2007book/lahoud07.htm">Mr. Marwan Lahoud<br>
Chief Operating Office EADS</a><a href="/2007book/schneider07.htm">Mr. Kent Schneider<br>
President, Defense Group<br>
Northrop Grumman IT<br>
</a><a href="/2007book/auroy07.htm">Mr. Patrick Auroy<br>
Deputy Director,<br>
French DGA
<br>
</a><a href="/2007book/volkman07.htm">Mr. Alfred Volkman<br>
Dir, Defense Cooperation<br>
US Dept of Defense<br>
</a>
<a href="/2007book/linnenkamp07.htm">Dr. Hilmar Linnenkamp<br>
Dep CEO, EDA</a>
<a href="/2007book/lind07.htm">Mr. Jan-Olof Lind<br>
Swedish National Armaments Director</a>
<a href="/2007book/buckley07.htm">Dr. Edgar Buckley<br>
Thales Senior Vice President</a>
<a href="/2007book/trice07">Dr. Robert Trice<br>
Lockheed Martin <br>
Senior Vice President<br>
</a><a href="/2007book/bertolone07.htm">Ing. Giovanni Bertolone<br>
CEO, Alenia Aeronautica</a>
<p align="center" class="style17">The way ahead & why current approaches don't work
<p align="center" class="style17"><a href="/2007book/martinusz07.htm">Amb Zoltan Martinusz<br>
Hungarian Amb to NATO<br>
</a><a href="/2007book/ducaru07.htm">Amb Dumitru Sorin Ducaru<br>
Romanian Amb to NATO</a><a href="/2007book/kujat07.htm"> General Harald Kujat<br>
Former Chair of NATO Military Committee</a>
</div>
</div>
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<td bgcolor="#006699" height="18" colspan="5"><div align="center" class="style285" style="font-weight: bold; color: #FFFFFF">Paris '07 Workshop</div></td>
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<div class=Section1>
<p align="center" class="style26">Forecasting and Influencing The Future--It Is Not Always What We Seek</p>
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<td width="43%"><p><strong><img src="2007images/DSC_0899 Jean de Ponton d'Amecourt speaking DAY II.JPG" alt="Dir for Strategic Affairs Jean d'Amecourt" width="220" height="331" border="0" align="left"></strong></p></td>
<td width="2%"> </td>
<td><div align="center">
<p class="style26"><span class="style27">Mr. Jean de Ponton
d'Amécourt<br>
Director for Strategic Affairs, French Defense MInistry</span><br>
</p>
</div></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="36" colspan="2"><div align="left">
<p>Mr. Jean de Ponton d'Amecourt, Director for Strategic Affairs in the French Defense Ministry at the Hotel National des Invalides.</p>
</div></td>
<td width="55%"><div align="center"></div></td>
<td width="0%"><div align="center" class="style27">
<div>
<p class="style26"><br>
</p>
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<p align="center" class="style26"><em>" ...history is not always a product of what we rationally seek,
but also tends
to exaggerate, <br>
to the nth degree,
the effects of unexpected events and
unlooked-for developments<br>
...history is made not only...through developments determined by the past, <br>
but also by clean
breaks with that past."</em></p>
<p align="center" class="style26">OPENING REMARKS</p>
<p>Those of you who
have previously attended events of this kind that are organized by France�and I
realize many of you have�will know that I am required, by our administrative
law, to make a short speech to mark the occasion. As someone who has, in the
course of a long career in the public and private sectors, had to listen to
hundreds�for all I know, thousands�of such speeches, I can promise you that it
will be relatively short. I hope it will be amusing in places as well, and I
believe it will address some important issues.</p>
<p>As you entered
the majestic Hotel des Invalides for the evening, you were welcomed by the
figure of Louis XIV on horseback. Just next door is the gold-capped mausoleum
in which the Emperor Napoleon is buried. No one would deny that those two men
are two of the great figures not only of France but Europe, and I would like to
think that their spirits are watching over us this evening.</p>
<p>These two great
figures from our history had a number of things in common, besides, of course,
a commitment to a Europe united under French leadership. First, they each had
an established tendency toward the exercise of unrestricted personal power;
second, they had immense ambition, both for themselves and their country;
third, they had great faith in the modernizing power of a rationally organized
state; and, finally, as we are reminded by the pictures that decorate the room
in which we meet, they possessed a great (some would say excessive) confidence
in the power of war to mold the future of a people.</p>
<p>The heritage
these two figures have left us�in its high points and its low points�reminds us
that history is not always a product of what we rationally seek, but also tends
to exaggerate, to the nth degree, the effects of unexpected events and
unlooked-for developments. At its simplest, history is made not only through
trends and through developments determined by the past, but also by clean
breaks with that past.</p>
<p>The feeling I have�perhaps you share
it�of being in the presence of the ghosts of these two great historic figures
leads me to reflect not only on the lessons we can draw from their lives, as I
have briefly tried to do, but, more importantly, on the possibility of a break
with the strategic order of the past, which we ourselves, perhaps, may have to
confront tomorrow.</p>
<p>To this end, I would like to share
with you some thoughts on the 30 years ahead. We in the Ministry of Defense
have been collecting these thoughts over the last few months and we have
organized it�as you must when looking into the future�both by analyzing the
major trends of today�that's the historical determinism part�and by looking at
possible departures from those trends.</p>
<p align="center" class="style26">FORECASTED FUTURE TRENDS</p>
<p>I hardly need to say much about the
major trends over that period, because they mostly represent common ground
among organizations whose job it is to peer into the future. For example, there
is the "Strategic Trends" document produced by our British friends
and the American report on "Mapping the Global Future," both of which
have appeared in recent times. What we get from these reports is that the world
in 2035 may contain a sepia-tinted Europe, a vision described as "gloomy"
in the European Union's long-term vision, whether it relates to:</p>
<p>- The population of Europe reducing in both absolute and relative terms, in a world
in which the balance between Europe, Africa, and Asia is changing</p>
<p>- The vitality and competitiveness of its economy, at risk of falling behind because
of a chronic lack of investment in the future</p>
<p>- Its technological potential, increasingly marked, as it is, not just by
interdependence but perhaps by dependence pure and simple</p>
<p>- The possibility of constant competition for access to natural resources and energy</p>
<p>- An incontestable reduction in its military capability</p>
<p>-Issues, still unresolved, relating to the identity and the boundaries of the European
Union</span></p>
<p>- Continued
conflict around the frontiers of Europe, not the least of which is on its immediate
borders, in the Near and Middle East and in the Black Sea area and Central Asia</span></p>
<p>Taken together, these trends amount
to a vision that could be thought of as pessimistic, of a Europe progressively
falling behind in terms of population and competitiveness and therefore in
economic and military power, with uncontrolled fires raging on its periphery,
in a world system in which its influence is reduced.</p>
<p align="center" class="style26">THE DANGERS OF BREAKING WITH THE PAST</p>
<p>In reality, nothing about the future
is fixed. The worst is never inevitable. Indeed, it is clear that the future
belongs to those who take hold of it and bend it to their will. There is no
such thing as fate: mankind, individual men and women, are masters of their
destiny. It's a matter of will. There is no reason at all why our future, in
2035, has to be like the unhappy picture I have described. It will depend very
much on the policies that are put in place between now and then. It depends
more than anything else on us.</p>
<p>But I don't intend to put too much
emphasis on continuing trends; I intend to talk more about the dangers from
strategic surprises, of discontinuities, of breaks with the past, which we
might be faced with over this period. It seems to me that these possible
discontinuities can be understood under three main headings: the world order,
the idea of power, and the relationship with modernity.</p>
<p align="center" class="style26">The World Order</p>
<p>For the first of these, the question
is, clearly, are we headed toward a better-ordered or a worse-ordered world?
Will there be more order or will there be less? In fact, it's quite possible to
address this question in an objective and quantitative fashion; order is
something you can measure.</p>
<p>It is quite a different thing to ask
whether we are moving toward a morally better world or a worse one. And you
will understand immediately that this is not the frame of reference I use now.
The question of the order of the world can be sub-divided into a number of
others. For example:</p>
<p>- Even today, each state is much more vulnerable to economic events elsewhere on the
planet, even when it has little to do with the region affected, because crises
spread in a paradoxical fashion. Could this process of infection produce a
major international economic crisis, a catastrophic actualization of a risk
that is always present in the system? One thinks, for example, of risks linked
to the wild, and perhaps uncontrollable and unsustainable, rate of growth of
China and the speculative bubble that is accompanying it.</p>
<p>- Could
the development, even the super-abundance, of international law go too far, and
lead one day to states simply deciding not to respect it? Is it possible, in
some way, for too much order to produce disorder?</p>
<p>- Are
we heading toward the progressive decline of non-proliferation regimes and the
outlawing of weapons of mass destruction? This break with the past, which
nobody wants, would be an especially powerful aid to the proliferation of WMD
and their delivery systems.</p>
<p>- Can we imagine what it would be like if an extremely sensitive country, such as
Iraq, were to come apart? This would lead to major regional instability, as
each state tried to counter the effects of such a collapse or alternatively
tried to benefit from it.</span></p>
<p>The second type of discontinuity,
that surrounding power, is of the most interest to us. It is clearly at the
center of the strategic game and here, too, there are many possibilities. For
example:</p>
<p>- If
there were easy access to weapons of mass destruction, facilitated by new
information technologies, could this weaken or even destroy the regulating
effect of the West's conventional military superiority? Do we understand the
consequences of this radical "asymmetry"?</p>
<p>- What about the weaponization of space? Could it open a new dimension for military
conflict between states?</p>
<p>- What
would be the consequences of the first use of nuclear weapons since Hiroshima
and Nagasaki, marking the end of a major historical taboo, with enormous
doctrinal consequences?</p>
<p>- Could keener and keener rivalries between "traditional" powers for access
to natural resources and energy lead to a new Cold War conflict or, for that
matter, a hot one?</p>
<p align="center" class="style26">The Relationship with Modernity</p>
<p>One last area in which the future
might be radically different from the past is that which concerns the very
basis of our societies and those societies with which our relations are
problematic. Fundamentally, it is a question of whether there can be a
convergence�or at least an orderly dialogue�between Western societies that have
largely lost their faith in modernity as a source of progress and other societies.
I am thinking here of various parts of the Arab and Islamic world that struggle
today to find a route toward this type of model (if indeed that is what they
really want), and Asia, which might, who knows, invent a new and unique concept
of modernity for the 21<sup>st</sup> century, a century that, we are told, will
belong to that continent.</p>
<p>Some other concrete examples of this
issue are:</p>
<p>- Western soldiers are more and more tied down by legal and other limitations, but have
to confront an environment in which frequently there are no rules. We are thus
at the point of revolution as fundamental as that which saw the complex ballet
of 18<sup>th</sup> and 19<sup>th</sup> century warfare replaced by the total
war of the two great conflicts of the 20<sup>th</sup> century. There is a real
risk that the conventional employment of military force could become
inappropriate for coping with the spread of indirect strategies and wars of
populations. If so, we need to think about radically different ways to employ
our forces and new technologies such as roboticization, non-lethal weapons,
situational awareness, or even embedding elements of our forces in the local
population.</p>
<p>- We might suffer a major WMD attack or a coordinated series of cyberattacks,
disrupting vital information networks such as those for telecommunications.
This would represent a significant development in the way in which terrorists
operate, and our societies are not well prepared to confront this.</p>
<p>- Could the tendency toward fragmentation of our societies into identity-based groups
oblige us one day to reconsider something so basic as the notion of defense
itself? In other words, in societies that are divided or have retreated into
communitarism, who exactly is defending whom?</p>
<p align="center" class="style26">CONCLUDING REMARKS</p>
<p>After this rapid canter through several possible discontinuities that could affect us in the future, I
would like to come back, by way of conclusion, to the two great historical
figures whose memories I evoked at the beginning of my speech. We can learn
from their examples that deterministic factors and global trends amount, in the
end, to nothing, because they affect all equally and do not differentiate.</p>
<p>In reality, there is no
possibility that a vision based on trends alone will come to pass in the form
expected. There will certainly be surprises and breaks with the past. As has
always been the case, it is the ability to forecast what may happen and the
determination to act that make the difference between being left scattered by
history and "surfing the wave" of historical progress. Seeing so many
distinguished decision-makers and eminent experts on defense and security
questions gathered together, I have no doubt that this capacity to peer into
the future and then to act in a decisive manner is widely shared among us. This
would be my wish for us collectively.</p>
<p>I began by citing Louis
XIV and Napoleon. But there is another figure whom I am legally required to
mention in all speeches of this kind that last longer than five minutes. It is
not the president�not the current one, anyway�but it is, of course, General de
Gaulle. Let me conclude, then, not with my words but with his:</p>
<p>"Happy are they with
the highest ambitions, the most skilful performers, the leavening in the bread
of life, who, stranded on the beach by the flow of ordinary days, dream only of
sailing off on the tide of history."</p>
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