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<title>CSDR 24th International Workshop on Global Security, Michele Alliot-Marie, Herve Morin, General Henri Bentegeat, General Jean-Louis Georgelin, General James L. Jones, Marc Perrin de Brichambaut, Patrick Auroy, Kent Schneider, Ambassador Mahmoud Karem, Admiral Giampaolo Di Paola, General Franciszek Gagor, Dr. Arthur T. Hopkins, George Joulwan, Borys Tarasyuk, Jean de Ponton d'Amécourt, General Rainer Schuwirth, General Egon Ramms, Gen Ulrich Wolf, Louis Gallois, Marwan Lahoud, Denis Ranque, Edgar Buckley, Assistant Secretary John Grimes, Tim Bloechl, EADS, Northrop Grumman, Microsoft, Robert Ranquet, Admiral Jean Betermier, Giovanni Bertolone, Robert Ranquet, Alenia Aeronautica, Roger Weissinger-Baylon, WMD, Weaapons of Mass Destruction, NATO, EU, UN, OSCE, Paris Air Show, French Defense Minister, Afghanistan, Iraq, Kosovo, Climate Change, Energy, Boeing</title>
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<p><span class="style293">international workshop series<br>
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<p align="center" class="style17"><strong>Table of Contents<br>
24th International Workshop - </strong><strong>Paris '07</strong></p>
<p align="center" class="style17"><span class="style18"><span class="style219"> </span>
<span class="style219"><a href="/2007book/weissinger07.htm">Preface- Dr. Roger<br>
Weissinger-Baylon<br>
Workshop Chairman<br>
</a></span><span class="style219"><a href="/2007book/ranquet07.htm">Foreword - Ing General<br>
Robert Ranquet<br>
</a></span>
<span class="style219"><a href="/2007book/joulwan07.htm">Opening Dinner Debate - <br>
General George Joulwan<br>
Former SACEUR<br>
</a></span></span><br>
Global security challenges: <br>
Is there hope for <br>
Afghanistan or Iraq?<br>
</p>
<p align="center" class="style17"><a href="/2007book/bentegeat07.htm">General Henri Bentegeat<br>
President of EU Military Committee</a>
<a href="/2007book/georgelin07">Gen Jean-Louis Georgelin C<strong>hef d’état</strong>-<strong>major</strong> des armées - France</a><a href="/2007book/amecourt07.htm">Mr. Jean de Ponton d'Amecourt - French Dir of Strategic Affairs</a><a href="/2007book/schuwirth07.htm">General Rainer Schuwirth <br>
Chief of Staff, SHAPE</a><a href="/2007book/ramms07.htm">General Egon Ramms <br>
Commander, Allied Joint Force Cmd, Brunssum</a>
<a href="/2007book/akram07.htm">
Amb Munir Akram<br>
Pakistan's Amb to UN</a><a href="/2007book/zhan07.htm">
Major Gen ZHAN Maohai<br>
Vice Chair of China IISS</a><br>
Energy & Climate Change<br>
<p align="center" class="style17"><a href="/2007book/jones07.htm">General James Jones<br>
Former Supreme Allied Commander Europe</a><a href="/2007book/ashton07.htm">Mr. John Ashton<br>
UK Special Repr for Climate Change</a><br>
Security in the Balkans & Black Sea region<br>
<p align="center" class="style17"><a href="/2007book/baramidze07.htm">Georgian Vice Prime Minister Giorgi Baramidze</a>
<a href="/2007book/tarasyuk07.htm">Ukrainian Foreign Minister Borys Tarasyuk</a>
<a href="/2007book/mediu07.htm">Albanian Defense Minister Fatmir Mediu</a><a href="/2007book/bliznakov07.htm">Bulgarian Defense Minister Veselin Bliznakov</a><a href="/2007book/bezhuashvili07.htm">Georgian Foreign Min Gela Bezhuashvili</a><a href="/2007book/ildem07.htm">Ambassador <strong> Tacan Ildem</strong><br>
Turkish Amb to NATO</a><a href="/2007book/buzhinsky07.htm">
Lt Gen Evgeniy Buzhinsky<br>
Russian Ministry of Defense</a><br>
Time for new strategies?<br>
NATO after the Riga Summit<br>
<p align="center" class="style17"><a href="/2007book/eldon07.htm">Amb Stewart Eldon<br>
UK Ambassador to NATO</a>
<a href="/2007book/orgaz07.htm">Amb Pablo Benavides Orgaz<br>
Spanish Amb to NATO</a>
<a href="/2007book/stefanini07.htm">Amb Stefano Stefanini <br>
Italian Amb to NATO</a><a href="/2007book/dipaola07.htm">Adm Giampaolo Di Paola<br>
Italian Chief of Defense<br>
</a><a href="/2007book/gagor07.htm">Gen Franciszek Gagor Polish Chief of Defense</a><br>
How can the EU, NATO, the OSCE, and UN reform?<br>
<p align="center" class="style17"><a href="/2007book/brichambaut07.htm">Amb Marc Perrin de Brichambaut<br>
OSCE Secretary General </a><a href="/2007book/lintonen07.htm">Amb Kirsti Lintonen Finnish Amb to UN</a>
<a href="/2007book/brodi07.htm">Amb Gabor Brodi<br>
Hungarian Amb to UN</a><a href="/2007book/rinkevics07.htm">State Sec Edgars Rinkevics - Latvian MOD</a><a href="/2007book/linkevicius07.htm">Amb Linas Linkevicius<br>
Lithuanian Amb to NATO<br>
</a>
<a href="/2007book/chizhov07.htm">Amb Vladimir Chizhov<br>
Russian Amb to the EU<br>
</a><a href="/2007book/monteforte07.htm">Vice Adm Ferdinando Sanfelice di Monteforte<br>
Italian Mil Repr to NATO</a><br>
Dealing with middle east:<br>Views from North Africa
<p align="center" class="style17"><a href="/2007book/yousfi07.htm">Amb Youcef Yousfi<br>
Algerian Amb to UN and former Foreign Minister</a><a href="/2007book/karem07.htm">Amb Mahmoud Karem<br>
Egyptian Amb to EU and Repr to Med Dialogue</a><a href="/2007book/alem07.htm">Amb Menouar Alem<br>
Moroccan Amb to EU and Repr to Med Dialogue<br>
</a>
<p align="center" class="style17">WMD and cyber threats
<p align="center" class="style17"><a href="/2007book/pfirter07.htm">Amb Rogelio Pfirter<br>
Director-General, OPCW</a>
<a href="/2007book/hopkins07.htm">Dr. Arthur T. Hopkins<br>
Assist to U.S. Sec of Defense - Nuclear & Chemical & Biological</a><a href="/2007book/aaviksoo07.htm">Estonian Defense Minister<br>
Jaak Aaviksoo</a><a href="/2007book/grimes07.htm">Hon John Grimes<br>
US Assistant Secretary of Defense - NII<br>
</a><a href="/2007book/lentz07.htm">Mr. Robert Lentz<br>
US Dep Asst Sec for NII<br>
</a><a href="/2007book/wolf07.htm">Lt General Ulrich Wolf<br>
Dir of NATO CIS Service Agency<br>
</a>
<a href="/2007book/bloechl07.htm">Mr. Tim Bloechl<br>
Microsoft Exec Director</a>
<p align="center" class="style17">How industry can help address the global challenges<p align="center" class="style17"><a href="/2007book/lahoud07.htm">Mr. Marwan Lahoud<br>
Chief Operating Office EADS</a><a href="/2007book/schneider07.htm">Mr. Kent Schneider<br>
President, Defense Group<br>
Northrop Grumman IT<br>
</a><a href="/2007book/auroy07.htm">Mr. Patrick Auroy<br>
Deputy Director,<br>
French DGA
<br>
</a><a href="/2007book/volkman07.htm">Mr. Alfred Volkman<br>
Dir, Defense Cooperation<br>
US Dept of Defense<br>
</a>
<a href="/2007book/linnenkamp07.htm">Dr. Hilmar Linnenkamp<br>
Dep CEO, EDA</a>
<a href="/2007book/lind07.htm">Mr. Jan-Olof Lind<br>
Swedish National Armaments Director</a>
<a href="/2007book/buckley07.htm">Dr. Edgar Buckley<br>
Thales Senior Vice President</a>
<a href="/2007book/trice07">Dr. Robert Trice<br>
Lockheed Martin <br>
Senior Vice President<br>
</a><a href="/2007book/bertolone07.htm">Ing. Giovanni Bertolone<br>
CEO, Alenia Aeronautica</a>
<p align="center" class="style17">The way ahead & why current approaches don't work
<p align="center" class="style17"><a href="/2007book/martinusz07.htm">Amb Zoltan Martinusz<br>
Hungarian Amb to NATO<br>
</a><a href="/2007book/ducaru07.htm">Amb Dumitru Sorin Ducaru<br>
Romanian Amb to NATO</a><a href="/2007book/kujat07.htm"> General Harald Kujat<br>
Former Chair of NATO Military Committee</a>
</div>
</div>
<div id="content">
<div class="story"><!-- InstanceBeginEditable name="EditRegion3" -->
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<td bgcolor="#006699" height="18" colspan="5"><div align="center" class="style285" style="font-weight: bold; color: #FFFFFF">Paris '07 Workshop</div></td>
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<div class=Section1>
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<p align="center" class="style26">The New and Expanding Security Challenges in the Middle East and South Asia</p>
<div align="center">
<table width="636" border="0">
<tr>
<td width="268" height="75"><div align="center" class=""><img src="2007images/DSC_0652 Munir Akram and Zhan Maohai COPY DAY II.jpg" alt="Major General Maohai Zhan" width="260" height="307"></div></td>
<td width="358" rowspan="2"><div align="center" class="style27">
<div>
<p class="style26">Ambassador Munir Akram<br>
Ambassador of Pakistan to the
United Nations</p>
<p class="style26"><br>
</p>
</div>
</div></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="53"><p> Pakistan's Ambassador to the UN, Munir Akram addresses the new security challenges in the Middle East and South Asia.</p></td>
</tr>
</table>
</div>
<p align="center" class="style26"><em>"...all seven major flashpoints in the Middle East—Palestine, Israel, Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, Iran, and Afghanistan—are linked. <br>
They are linked first by the
involvement...of the principal powers, the United States and the other major powers.<br>
Second, they are linked by the fact that each
contains...asymmetric warfare and terrorism. <br>
Third, they
are linked because the strategic fight...is over
the oil resources in the region. <br>
Last,...they are
linked because of the... impact Iran has on each crisis."</em></p>
<p>I would like to dwell on the
new and expanding security challenges that we see in my part of the world, the
Middle East and south Asia, in which NATO is now very deeply involved.</p>
<p align="center" class="style26">THE NEW SECURITY CHALLENGES IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND SOUTH ASIA</p>
<p>�The first challenge is the
spread of asymmetric warfare, which is not a traditional problem that we have
dealt with in the past. Asymmetric warfare is mainly local, but it also has a
regional and even a global context in the form of Al Qaeda and other global
terrorist organizations.</p>
<p>The second challenge we face
is the use of conventional force brought to Iraq, Afghanistan, and Lebanon by Israel. This has not been successful so far, but the challenge is much more complex than
it was in the past.</p>
<p>The third security challenge
we face is that crises are now more complex, not only because there are local
actors in the form of organizations and factions but because state interests
are also involved, sometimes controlling and sometimes controlled by other
factions.</p>
<p>The final challenge is that
all seven major flashpoints in the Middle East�Palestine, Israel, Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, Iran, and Afghanistan�are linked. They are linked first by the
involvement in and the interest of the principal powers, the United States and the other major powers. Second, they are linked by the fact that each
contains a very large element of asymmetric warfare and terrorism. Third, they
are linked because the strategic fight, not only the balance of power, is over
the oil resources in the region. Last, and perhaps most critically, they are
linked because of the pervasive influence and impact Iran has on each crisis.� </p>
<p align="center" class="style26">THE CENTRAL CONUMDRUM OF THE SECURITY ENVIRONMENT IN THE MIDDLE EAST</p>
<p>In Afghanistan, the center of
gravity for a solution to the crisis may be a little bit lower compared to the
other six crises, but in Palestine, Israel, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Iran the central problem relates to the eventual rules of engagement between the United States and its allies and the Islamic Republic of Iran. Although Afghanistan may be slightly different, this is the central conundrum of the security environment in
the Middle East, with Iran and the United States the major players. Therefore
future events will need to be assessed on the basis of how the relationship
between the United States and Iran evolves.� </p>
<p>No doubt you have all heard
about the recent first talks that were held in Baghdad. Though apparently
things have not gone so well since then, there are two dimensions we need to
look at to determine which way things will go in the future.� The first is Iraq. The second is the nuclear issue between the U.S. plus five and Iran.</p>
<p align="center" class="style26">Issues for Iran</p>
<p>Regarding Iraq, I think the Iranians are probably sincere when they say they want a stable Iraq. I think it is in their interests to have a stable Iraq but a stable Iraq that is dominated by a Shia government. Regarding that point, U.S. policies in Iraq since the country�s intervention have converged with the interests of Iran because with the elections insisted upon by the U.S., it was inevitable that the government
would be dominated by the Shia. Perhaps this result was foreseen in Washington, one does not know, but so far U.S. policies have converged with Iranian
interests regarding the Iraqi government. </p>
<p>However, while Iran requires that a Shia government assume power in Baghdad, it also requires that the United States and its allies leave Iraq, and that is where a major divergence arises. Iran, together with some of its allies, perhaps Syria, is trying to bring about conditions that will
prevent the United States from staying in Iraq, as the U.S. obviously wishes to do. Those conditions are rapidly being created on the ground. The
sectarian violence may have been started by the Sunni�Al Zarqawi and his
gang�and it may have been fueled by some of the Sunni insurgents, including the
Baathists. Today, however, it is the Shia militia that is carrying out ethnic
cleansing in many of the Sunni-majority areas in Iraq and creating new
realities on the ground in Baghdad and elsewhere.</p>
<p align="center" class="style26">Issues for the United
States </p>
<p> forces are also facing new forms of weapons that make
for large numbers of casualties, which has been a phenomenon of the surge in
troops. Security in parts of Baghdad and elsewhere may be better because of the
surge, but the cost in terms of U.S. casualties has been higher�there is a
direct correlation between increased numbers of casualties and the kind of
weapons and tactics U.S. troops are facing.� The conditions on the ground for
the U.S. are difficult.� </p>
<p>Politically, the
Shia-dominated government is obviously reluctant to take the steps that are
required for reconciliation with the Sunnis. The Oil Law, the Federation Law,
and the other political steps that are required to bring in the Sunnis, bring
in the ex-Baathists, and isolate Al Qaeda have not yet been taken in Iraq.</p>
<p>In Iran, many realize that
the U.S. is facing a domestic situation in which public opinion is turning more
and more toward American withdrawal from Iraq. The perception, perhaps in
Teheran, is that if things continue in the direction they are going�the
sectarian separation, the lack of consensus within Iraq, the drifting away of
the Kurds, the problems between Kurdistan and Turkey, and the ground
situation�the U.S. will eventually be obliged to agree to a full withdrawal, be
it rapid or gradual. That could be in exchange for Iranian help, which would be
provided in exchange for a deal on the nuclear issue and a security role for Iran in the Gulf.� </p>
<p>That deal is obviously
possible. The main question is whether a deal could be worked out between the U.S. and Iran on the nuclear issue. There it seems that prospects are not very bright. The U.S. has set down a benchmark, which is the cessation of nuclear enrichment by Iran. The Security Council has endorsed this benchmark twice, and it is now a legal
requirement for Iran. But the Iranians have said loud and clear that they will
not accept the cessation of enrichment as the basis for an understanding or a
package deal that would involve Iraq and Gulf security.</p>
<p>On the other side, I have not
heard people in Washington say that they would agree to anything less than full
cessation of enrichment by Iran. Of course, if there is flexibility in the positions
of the two sides a deal is possible. The definition of enrichment can be quite
flexible and the definition of continuation of enrichment on Iranian soil can
also be very flexible. So far, however, the U.S. seems determined to have
complete, verified cessation and the Iranians are equally determined to
continue with nuclear enrichment. According to Dr. El Baradeh, the Iranians
already have 1,800 centrifuges running and could have about 3,000 within the
next few months. Then, if they were able to throw the inspectors out, they
could accelerate and meet the projections that in two or three years they could
have enough material for a weapon, although they declare that they don�t want
weapons.</p>
<p align="center" class="style26">CONCLUDING REMARKS</p>
<p>These points, then, make up
the central crisis in our region, though, of course, I have not dwelled on the
other aspects of the crisis: the chaos between Palestine and Israel, the fragmentation in Lebanon, and the immediate challenge in Afghanistan, with which NATO is
so deeply involved. Regarding Afghanistan, I will only say that what is
required is nothing less than a new strategy, one that perhaps redefines
success. The Afghanistan war started as a war of vengeance against Al Qaeda and
the Taliban, but now it has mutated into a different kind of conflict and we
need to see what are our objectives are there and how we can achieve them. </p>
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