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<title>Center for Strategic Decision Research, Peter Struck, Michele Alliot-Marie, General George Joulwan, SACEUR, General James L. Jones, SHAPE, NATO, EU, BDLI, ILA, EADS, Northrop Grumman, Under Secretary Michael Wynne, Assistant Secretary Linton Wells, Ambassador William Burns, NATO Military Committee Chairman General Harald Kujat, General Dynamics, Boeing, Global Security Terrorism, Iraq, Afghanistan, Rainer Hertrich, David Stafford</title>
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<td width="66" height="68"><p><img src="../2004book/logo-kevin-web.jpg" width="60" height="66"></p> </td>
<td width="538"><div align="center"><span class="style5">22nd International Workshop on Global Security<br>
<em>Chantilly/Paris, 10-12 June 2005 </em><br>
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<p align="center" class="style17"><strong>Table of Contents</strong></p>
<p align="left" class="style17"><span class="style18"><span class="style219"> </span><span class="style219"><a href="preface.htm">Preface</a></span></span></p>
<p align="center" class="style17">Part 1 </p>
<p align="left" class="style17"><a href="alliotmarie.htm">French Defense Minister Michele Alliot-Marie (English version) </a><span class="style217"><strong></strong></span><span class="style217"><strong><a href="alliotmarie-french.htm">French Defense Minister Michele Alliot-Marie (French version) </a><a href="reid.htm">UK Defense Minister John Reid</a></strong></span><span class="style217"><strong><a href="graham.htm">Canadian Defense Minister Bill Graham </a></strong></span><span class="style219"><a href="weissingerbaylon.htm">Workshop Chairman Dr. Roger Weissinger-Baylon </a></span><span class="style219"> </span><span class="style219"><a href="liska.htm">Slovak Defense Minister Juraj Liska </a></span><span class="style219"><a href="erjavec.htm">Slovenian Defense Minister Karl Erjavec </a></span><span class="style219"> </span><span class="style219"><a href="svinarov.htm">Bulgarian Defense Minister Nikolay Svinarov </a></span><span class="style219"><a href="kujat.htm">NATO Military Committee Chair Gen Harald Kujat </a></span><span class="style219"> </span><span class="style219"><a href="koenig.htm">Acting US Ambassador to NATO John Koenig </a></span><span class="style219"><a href="schuwirth.htm">SHAPE Chief of Staff Gen Rainer Schuwirth </a></span><span class="style219"> </span><span class="style219"><a href="back.htm">Allied Joint Force Command Brunssum Cmdr Gen Gerhard Back </a></span></p>
<p align="center" class="style17">Part 2 </p>
<p align="left" class="style17"><span class="style219"><a href="perrindebrichambaut.htm">French MOD Dir for Strat Affairs Amb Marc Perrin de Brichambaut </a></span><span class="style219"> </span><span class="style219"><a href="dipaola.htm">Italian Chief of Defense Adm Giampaolo Di Paola </a></span><span class="style219"><a href="naumann.htm">fmr German Chief of Defense Gen Klaus Naumann </a></span><span class="style219"> </span><span class="style219"><a href="perruche.htm">EU Military Staff Director Gen Jean-Paul Perruche </a></span><span class="style219"><a href="klein.htm">US Assist to Secretary of Defense Dale Klein </a></span><span class="style219"> </span><span class="style219"><a href="gergorin.htm">EADS Exec Vice President Jean-Louis Gergorin </a></span><span class="style219"><a href="george.htm">UK Parliament Member Bruce George </a></span><span class="style219"> </span><span class="style219"><a href="ranque.htm">Thales Chairman & CEO Denis Ranque</a></span><span class="style219"><a href="tarasyuk.htm">Ukranian Foreign Minister Borys Tarasyuk </a></span><span class="style219"> </span><span class="style219"><a href="fasslabend.htm">Austrian Natl Assembly Member Minister Werner Fasslabend</a></span><span class="style219"><a href="pickering.htm">Boeing Sr Vice President Amb Thomas Pickering</a></span><a href="rooseveltinstitution.htm">Roosevelt Institution </a></p>
<p align="center" class="style17">Part 3 </p>
<p align="left" class="style17"><span class="style219"> </span><span class="style219"><a href="auroy.htm">French MOD DGA Force Systems & Cooperation Director Patrick Auroy </a></span><span class="style219"><a href="lind.htm">Swedish Natl Armaments Director Jan-Olof Lind </a></span><span class="style219"> </span><span class="style219"><a href="weise.htm">German Armaments Dir Hans-Heinrich Weise </a></span><span class="style219"><a href="volkman.htm">US Under Secretary of Defense Office Intl Coop Director Alfred Volkman </a></span><span class="style219"> </span><span class="style219"><a href="stanhope.htm">Dep Supreme Allied Cmdr Transformation Admiral Sir Mark Stanhope </a></span><span class="style219"><a href="lahoud.htm">MBDA President & CEO Marwan Lahoud </a></span><span class="style219"> </span><span class="style219"><a href="courtot.htm">SAFRAN Sr Vice President Francois Courtot </a></span><span class="style219"><a href="bertolone.htm">Alenia Aeronautica CEO Giovanni Bertolone </a></span><span class="style219"> </span><span class="style219"><a href="harris.htm">Lockheed Martin President Scott Harris </a></span><span class="style219"><a href="schneider.htm">Northrop Grumman President Kent Schneider </a></span><span class="style219"> </span><span class="style219"><a href="wells.htm">US Assist Secretary of Defense Linton Wells </a></span><span class="style219"><a href="vice.htm">Northrop Grumman Vice President Thomas Vice</a></span></p>
<p align="center" class="style17">Part 4 </p>
<p align="left" class="style17"><span class="style219"> </span><span class="style219"><a href="novotny.htm">Czech Ambassador to India Jaromir Novotny </a></span><span class="style219"><a href="rinkevics.htm">Latvian MOD State Secretary Edgars Rinkevics</a></span><span class="style219"><a href="plangu.htm">Romanian MOD State Secretary for Policy Ion Mircea Plangu </a></span><span class="style219"> </span><span class="style219"><a href="kouts.htm">Estonian Defense Forces Cmdr Adm Tarmo Kouts </a></span><br>
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<h1 align="center" class="style32"><strong>The Iranian Nuclear Crisis: Steps Toward a Multilateral Solution</strong></h1>
<p align="center" class="style31">A recommendation from fellows of the Center on International Security <BR>
at the Roosevelt Institution, Stanford University </p>
<p align="left" class="style21">Military action does not appear imminent if Iran continues to adhere to the freeze on enrichment. Based on Iran’s history and current policy direction, however, Iran will likely violate the freeze on enrichment. The Bush administration currently stands against any Iranian acquisition of highly enriched uranium. We suggest that the United States modify its stance to permit Iran to resume enrichment contingent on Iran’s consent to extremely stringent international monitoring under the aegis of the IAEA. We see this shift in policy as advantageous, as it gives us insight into Iranian behavior and a better estimate of their capability to acquire nuclear weapons.<BR>
<BR>
A resolution could be reached if, in addition to submitting to strict international monitoring, Iran agrees to cease support for Hezbollah and Iraqi Shiite insurgents. In exchange, the United States would agree not to take military action and to dissuade Israel from a preemptive military strike. Such an accord would assuage international concerns over nuclear proliferation while allowing Iran to pursue its stated goal of civil nuclear energy development. If Iran resumes enrichment without a multilateral agreement, the matter will be referred to the UNSC by the IAEA, with the support of the United States, France, and the United Kingdom. We foresee the following chain of events if UNSC becomes involved: </p>
<UL>
<LI class="style21">Economic sanctions will be difficult to enact and enforce due to the economic interests Russia and China hold in Iran.
<LI class="style21">Therefore, the United States and European powers should avoid diplomatic defeat through a Russian or Chinese veto by actively preventing the issue from falling to the UNSC.
<LI class="style21">Avoiding a UN stalemate, the United States and Europe should work with Russia to reach an accord, by offering economic incentives to the Kremlin to mitigate the impact of sanctions on Russia.
<LI class="style21">Such an accord could offer Russia complete control of the Iranian nuclear cycle, allowing Iran the pursuit of nuclear power and Russia economic benefits.
<LI class="style21">Complete Russian control of the Iranian nuclear cycle would be phased out within 5-10 years, i.e. allowing for a positive change in Iranian leadership, with the following multilateral provisions: </LI>
</UL>
<p><span class="style21">1. Iran must fully comply with IAEA standards and safeguards;<br>
2. Security assurances toward Iran from the United States;<br>
3. Swift action to initiate a new coöperative threat-reduction plan with Russia to secure its nuclear facilities, providing Russia incentives for its involvement while contributing to the American global war on terror.</span><span class="style21"></span><span class="style21"><BR>
<BR>
Iran’s refusal to commit to a multilateral agreement would render a military response more likely. </span> </p>
<UL class="style21">
<LI>International support for military force will be highest if the United States and Israel could prove that Iran is close to achieving the production of weapons-grade uranium. Israeli intelligence estimates suggest that once Iran reaches HEU, they are about two years away from developing a bomb.
<LI>If diplomatic efforts fail, a military strike on Iranian nuclear facilities is likely. Israel remains committed to its perception of security regardless of long-standing alliances. Regardless of the American actions, the United States would likely be implicated in an Israeli preëmptive strike. </LI>
</UL>
<p><span class="style21"><BR>
Therefore, diplomatic engagement is imperative. Gaining Russian involvement, though problematic, offers the most viable chance for a peaceful resolution. Ultimately, unless a reformist Iranian government shows the determination to commit to non-proliferation a military conflict becomes increasingly probable. Ultimately, the best resolution comes through immediate U.S. diplomatic engagement, especially prior to contested elections where reformists are struggling to change Iranian government. Immediate engagement prior to the June 17th elections would strengthen the hands of moderates and offer greater chances of reaching a non-proliferation agreement.</span></p>
<p><span class="style21"><strong>Participating Fellows<BR>
<BR>
</strong></span><span class="style21">Brian Burton, Marwan Chaar, Elaine Choi, Martine Cicconi, Marissa Cramer, Nicole Gomez, Noel Foster, Andrew Leifer, Henry Liao, Jeffrey Love, Matthew Loveless, Megan Stacy, Judy Wang and Lauren Young</span><BR>
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