|
Server : Apache/2.4.62 System : FreeBSD fbsdweb2.web.rcn.net 14.1-RELEASE FreeBSD 14.1-RELEASE releng/14.1-n267679-10e31f0946d8 GENERIC amd64 User : www ( 80) PHP Version : 8.3.8 Disable Function : NONE Directory : /domains/roger.dnai/2003Book/ |
Upload File : |
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN"
"http://www.w3.org/TR/html4/loose.dtd">
<html><!-- InstanceBegin template="/Templates/2003_book.dwt" codeOutsideHTMLIsLocked="false" -->
<head>
<script type="text/javascript">
<!--
var time = 3000;
var numofitems = 7;
//menu constructor
function menu(allitems,thisitem,startstate){
callname= "gl"+thisitem;
divname="subglobal"+thisitem;
this.numberofmenuitems = 7;
this.caller = document.getElementById(callname);
this.thediv = document.getElementById(divname);
this.thediv.style.visibility = startstate;
}
//menu methods
function ehandler(event,theobj){
for (var i=1; i<= theobj.numberofmenuitems; i++){
var shutdiv =eval( "menuitem"+i+".thediv");
shutdiv.style.visibility="hidden";
}
theobj.thediv.style.visibility="visible";
}
function closesubnav(event){
if ((event.clientY <48)||(event.clientY > 107)){
for (var i=1; i<= numofitems; i++){
var shutdiv =eval('menuitem'+i+'.thediv');
shutdiv.style.visibility='hidden';
}
}
}
// -->
</script>
<style type="text/css">
<!--
.style196 {color: #006699}
.style197 {color: #000000}
.style209 {font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-weight: normal;}
.style217 {font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif}
.style219 {font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; }
.style220 {font-size: x-small}
.style222 {font-weight: normal; font-style: normal;}
-->
</style>
<script language="JavaScript" type="text/JavaScript">
<!--
function MM_reloadPage(init) { //reloads the window if Nav4 resized
if (init==true) with (navigator) {if ((appName=="Netscape")&&(parseInt(appVersion)==4)) {
document.MM_pgW=innerWidth; document.MM_pgH=innerHeight; onresize=MM_reloadPage; }}
else if (innerWidth!=document.MM_pgW || innerHeight!=document.MM_pgH) location.reload();
}
MM_reloadPage(true);
//-->
</script>
<!-- InstanceBeginEditable name="doctitle" -->
<title>Center for Strategic Decision Research, Peter Struck, Michele Alliot-Marie, General George Joulwan, SACEUR, General James L. Jones, SHAPE, NATO, EU, BDLI, ILA, EADS, Northrop Grumman, Under Secretary Michael Wynne, Assistant Secretary Linton Wells, Ambassador William Burns, NATO Military Committee Chairman General Harald Kujat, General Dynamics, Boeing, Global Security Terrorism, Iraq, Afghanistan, Rainer Hertrich, David Stafford</title>
<!-- InstanceEndEditable --><link href="../emx_nav_right.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css">
<style type="text/css">
<!--
.style244 {
font-size: large;
font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;
font-weight: bold;
color: #000000;
}
.style86 {font-size: 2px}
-->
</style>
<!-- InstanceBeginEditable name="head" --><!-- InstanceEndEditable -->
</head>
<body onmousemove="closesubnav(event);">
<div class="skipLinks">skip to: <a href="#content">page content</a> | <a href="/pageNav">links on this page</a> | <a href="#globalNav">site navigation</a> | <a href="#siteInfo">footer (site information)</a> </div>
<div id="masthead">
<h1 align="left" id="siteName"><br>
<strong>Center for Strategic Decision Research<br>
<br>
</strong></h1>
<div id="globalNav">
<div id="globalLink">
<p><a href="/index.html" class="glink">Home</a><a href="../2004book/PeterStruckKeynote.htm" class="glink">Berlin 04</a><a href="overview.htm" class="glink">Moscow 03</a><a href="../2002Book/index.html" class="glink">Berlin 02</a><a href="../2001Book/workshop2001.htm" class="glink">Helsingor 01</a><a href="../2000Book/workshop2000.htm" class="glink">Berlin 00</a><a href="../99Book/workshop1999.htm" class="glink">Budapest 99</a><a href="../98Book/workshop98.htm" class="glink">Vienna 98</a><a href="../97Book/workshop97.htm" class="glink">Prague 97</a><a href="../96Book/Workshop96.htm" class="glink">Warsaw 96</a></p>
</div>
<!--end globalLinks-->
</div>
<!-- end globalNav -->
<div id="subglobal1" class="subglobalNav">
<a href="#">subglobal1 link</a> | <a href="#">subglobal1 link</a> | <a href="#">subglobal1
link</a> | <a href="#">subglobal1 link</a> | <a href="#">subglobal1 link</a> | <a href="#">subglobal1
link</a> | <a href="#">subglobal1 link</a>
</div>
<div id="subglobal2" class="subglobalNav">
<a href="#">subglobal2 link</a> | <a href="#">subglobal2 link</a> | <a href="#">subglobal2
link</a> | <a href="#">subglobal2 link</a> | <a href="#">subglobal2 link</a> | <a href="#">subglobal2
link</a> | <a href="#">subglobal2 link</a>
</div>
<div id="subglobal3" class="subglobalNav">
<a href="#">subglobal3 link</a> | <a href="#">subglobal3 link</a> | <a href="#">subglobal3
link</a> | <a href="#">subglobal3 link</a> | <a href="#">subglobal3 link</a> | <a href="#">subglobal3
link</a> | <a href="#">subglobal3 link</a>
</div>
<div id="subglobal4" class="subglobalNav">
<a href="#">subglobal4 link</a> | <a href="#">subglobal4 link</a> | <a href="#">subglobal4
link</a> | <a href="#">subglobal4 link</a> | <a href="#">subglobal4 link</a> | <a href="#">subglobal4
link</a> | <a href="#">subglobal4 link</a>
</div>
<div id="subglobal5" class="subglobalNav">
<a href="#">subglobal5 link</a> | <a href="#">subglobal5 link</a> | <a href="#">subglobal5
link</a> | <a href="#">subglobal5 link</a> | <a href="#">subglobal5 link</a> | <a href="#">subglobal5
link</a> | <a href="#">subglobal5 link</a>
</div>
<div id="subglobal6" class="subglobalNav">
<a href="#">subglobal6 link</a> | <a href="#">subglobal6 link</a> | <a href="#">subglobal6
link</a> | <a href="#">subglobal6 link</a> | <a href="#">subglobal6 link</a> | <a href="#">subglobal6
link</a> | <a href="#">subglobal6 link</a>
</div>
<div id="subglobal7" class="subglobalNav">
<a href="#">subglobal7 link</a> | <a href="#">subglobal7 link</a> | <a href="#">subglobal7
link</a> | <a href="#">subglobal7 link</a> | <a href="#">subglobal7 link</a> | <a href="#">subglobal7
link</a> | <a href="#">subglobal7 link</a>
</div>
<div id="subglobal8" class="subglobalNav">
<a href="#">subglobal8 link</a> | <a href="#">subglobal8 link</a> | <a href="#">subglobal8
link</a> | <a href="#">subglobal8 link</a> | <a href="#">subglobal8 link</a> | <a href="#">subglobal8
link</a> | <a href="#">subglobal8 link</a>
</div>
</div>
<!-- end masthead -->
<div id="pagecell1">
<!--pagecell1-->
<div id="breadCrumb"><br>
<table width="720" border="0" align="center">
<tr>
<td width="63"><div align="center"><img src="../2004book/logo-kevin-web.jpg" width="60" height="66"></div></td>
<td><div align="center">
<p align="center" class="style244">20th International Workshop on Global Security - Moscow, 27-30 June 2003<br>
"Toward Global Security: New Strategies, Technologies, and Alliances"</p>
</div></td>
</tr>
</table>
</div>
<div id="pageName">
<h3 align="center" class="style196 style86"> </h3>
</div>
<div id="pageNav">
<div id="sectionLinks"><br>
<p align="center" class="style220"><strong>Table of Contents </strong></p>
<p align="left" class="style220"><a href="/2003Book/joulwan.htm">Fmr SACEUR General George Joulwan </a><span class="style217"><strong></strong></span><span class="style217"><strong><a href="/2003Book/overview.htm">Workshop Chairman Roger Weissinger-Baylon </a></strong></span></p>
<p align="center" class="style220"><strong>Pa</strong><strong>rt 1 </strong></p>
<p class="style220"><span class="style217"><strong><a href="/2003Book/fursenko.htm">Russian First Deputy Industry, Science, Tech Minister Andrey Fursenko</a></strong></span><span class="style217"><strong><a href="/2003Book/vershbow.htm">US Ambassador to Russia Alexander Vershbow</a></strong></span><span class="style217"><strong><a href="/2003Book/lukin.htm">Russian Duma Deputy Speaker Vladimir Lukin </a></strong></span><span class="style217"><strong><a href="/2003Book/yavlinsky.htm">Russian Duma Member Grigory Yavlinsky</a></strong></span><span class="style217"><a href="/2003Book/velikhov.htm">Kurchatov Institute Director Evgeny Velikhov </a><a href="/2003Book/pickering.htm">Fmr US Ambassador to Russia Thomas Pickering</a><a href="/2003Book/portillo.htm">UK House of Commons Member Michael Portillo</a><a href="/2003Book/deruyt.htm">Belgian Ambassador to UN Jean de Ruyt</a><a href="/2003Book/vonploetz.htm">German Ambassador to Russia Hans-Friedrich von Ploetz </a><a href="/2003Book/wolsztynski.htm">French Air Force Chief of Staff General Richard Wolsztynski</a><a href="/2003Book/sedivy.htm">Fmr Czech Chief of Staff General Jiri Sedivy </a><a href="/2003Book/mehta.htm">Indian Armed Forces General Ashok Mehta</a></span><span class="style217"><a href="/2003Book/george.htm">UK House of Commons Member Bruce George</a></span><span class="style217"><a href="/2003Book/nurick.htm">Carnegie Moscow Center Director Robert Nurick</a><a href="/2003Book/ranquet.htm"> French Defense Ministry Dep Director Strat Affairs General Robert Ranquet</a></span></p>
<p align="center" class="style220"><strong>Part 2 </strong></p>
<p class="style220"><span class="style217"><span class="style222"><a href="/2003Book/fasslabend.htm">Fmr Austrian Defense Min Werner Fasslabend</a></span></span><span class="style217"><span class="style222"><a href="/2003Book/rogov.htm">Russian Acad of Sciences USA Canada Institute Director Serguey Rogov</a><a href="/2003Book/baranovsky.htm"> Russian Acad of Sciences IMEMO Deputy Director Vladimir Baranovsky</a><a href="/2003Book/piontkovskiy.htm">Strat Studies Ctr Director Andrey Piontkovskiy</a></span></span><span class="style219"><a href="/2003Book/onyszkiewicz.htm">Fmr Polish Defense Min Janusz Onyszkiewicz </a><a href="/2003Book/welti.htm"> Swiss Defense Ministry Security Policy Director Amb Philippe Welti</a><a href="/2003Book/pascu.htm">Romanian Defense Minister Ioan Pascu </a><a href="/2003Book/chandra.htm">Indian Dep Natl Security Advisor Satish Chandra</a><a href="/2003Book/marschan.htm">Finnish Defense Ministry Special Counselor Nikolai Marschan</a></span></p>
<p align="center" class="style220"><strong>Part 3 </strong></p>
<p class="style220"><span class="style219"><a href="/2003Book/volkman.htm">US Defense Dept Dir for Intl Coop Alfred Volkman</a><a href="/2003Book/dipaola.htm">Italian Sec Gen Defense Adm Giampaolo di Paola </a></span><span class="style209"><span class="style197"><a href="/2003Book/schuwirth.htm">EU Mil Staff Director General Rainer Schuwirth </a></span><span #invalid_attr_id="10px 0px 0px 10px"><span class="style197"><a href="/2003Book/naumann.htm">Fmr German Defense Chief Gen Klaus Naumann </a></span></span></span><span class="style219"><a href="/2003Book/cosentino.htm">Alenia Sr Vice President Carmelo Costentino</a><a href="/2003Book/trice.htm">Lockheed Martin Sr Vice President Robert Trice </a><a href="/2003Book/ray.htm">Raytheon Europe President Norman Ray</a></span><span class="style219"><a href="/2003Book/dyson.htm">EDventure Chairman Esther Dyson</a></span><span class="style219"><a href="/2003Book/kravchenko.htm">Boeing Russia/CIS Pres Sergey Kravchenko</a></span><span class="style219"><a href="/2003Book/karachinsky.htm">IBS Group President Anatoly Karachinsky</a></span><span class="style219"><a href="/2003Book/doughty.htm">Motorola Vice President John Doughty</a></span><span class="style219"><a href="/2003Book/galitsky.htm">ELVIS+ Founder and CEO Alexander Galitsky</a></span><span class="style219"><a href="/2003Book/lentz.htm">US Assist Sec Defense Office Director of Info Assurance Robert Lentz</a> </span><span class="style219"><a href="/2003Book/coggins.htm">Silicon Graphics Sr Vice President Steve Coggins</a></span><span class="style219"><a href="/2003Book/gante.htm">BDLI President Hans-Joachim Gante</a></span><span class="style217"><a href="/2003Book/sinha.htm">MITRE VP Agam Sinha</a></span></p>
<p align="center" class="style220"><strong>Part 4 </strong></p>
<p class="style220"><span class="style219"><a href="/2003Book/linkevicius.htm">Lithuanian Defense Minister Linas Linkevicius</a></span><span class="style219"><a href="/2003Book/korcok.htm">Slovakian State Secretary of Foreign Affairs Ivan Korcok</a></span><span class="style219"><a href="/2003Book/brodi.htm">Hungarian Dep State Secretary of Foreign Affairs Gabor Brodi</a></span><span class="style219"><a href="/2003Book/hunter.htm">Fmr US Ambassador to NATO Robert Hunter</a></span><span class="style219"><a href="/2003Book/vondra.htm">Czech Dep Foreign Minister Alexandr Vondra</a> <br>
</span></p>
</div>
</div>
<div id="content">
<div class="story"><!-- InstanceBeginEditable name="EditRegion" -->
<!-- Start of StatCounter Code -->
<script type="text/javascript">
var sc_project=3086157;
var sc_invisible=0;
var sc_partition=27;
var sc_security="33bf0688";
</script>
<script type="text/javascript" src="http://www.statcounter.com/counter/counter_xhtml.js"></script><noscript><div class="statcounter"><a class="statcounter" href="http://www.statcounter.com/"><img class="statcounter" src="http://c28.statcounter.com/3086157/0/33bf0688/0/" alt="free website hit counter" /></a></div></noscript>
<!-- End of StatCounter Code -->
<div class="story">
<h1 class="style196">Deterrence for the New Threats </h1>
<h1 class="style196"> </h1>
<h2 class="style196">General Ashok K. Mehta<br>
Consulting Editor, Indian Defense Review</h2>
<p align="left">When the Cold War ended, I met the British Chief of Defense Staff, Field Marshal Lord Edwin Bramall, who is an old friend from the Indian Army days. When I met him in Delhi, I asked him: �Why do you look so forlorn? The Cold War is ended.� He replied: �That's the reason, because we no longer have an enemy.� We had not heard of Mullah Omar or Osama bin Laden at that time. But this is to show how enemies are made and unmade. </p>
<p align="left"> I have to thank CSDR for expanding the Indian participation from one to two for this Workshop. This has made it possible for me to be here and, even more fortuitously, to discuss �New concepts of deterrence against non-state actors.� I believe it is quite appropriate to pick an Indian for this role because my country has been the oldest victim of the scourge by non-state actors. Of course, Israel, Russia, the United States and others are also victims. </p>
<p align="left"> Unfortunately, the Indian voice in this matter was not heard until 9/11, and when 12/13 happened�12/13 or December 13, 2001 is a landmark date in India because it is the day when the assault on Indian democracy was perpetrated�we knew that the epicenter of terrorism had in fact shifted from the Middle East to Afghanistan and Pakistan. At least two Workshop speakers have referred to Kashmir and India and Pakistan earlier and it is certainly not my intention to make that the subject of any debate. But I would inform you that nearly 32, 000 people have been killed by so-called Islamic Jihadis since 1990 in Jammu and Kashmir, ironically 1/3 of them Muslims. </p>
<p align="left"> As a soldier who was introduced to peacekeeping in 1960 in the Congo (Zaire) and 38 years later commanded the Indian peacekeeping forces in Sri Lanka, I have spent half my professional life combating insurgency and terrorism. I should know the pain of killing and the pain of restraint. In fact, India has lost more security personnel at the hand of non-state actors than it has during the wars it has fought. This is a fact that is not well known and yet India has shown remarkable and sometimes bewildering restraint. Do you know that a non-state actor, namely the Taliban, became a state actor, perhaps for the first time in history, in Afghanistan with the help of a neighboring state? It is therefore possible to conceive of a situation where assistance to a non-state actor might even involve the transfer of nuclear material. This should worry us. </p>
<p align="left"> We have already looked at the challenges and the threats to global security. I just want to very quickly summarize them. The first is of course weapons of mass destruction; the second, which has not been talked about very much, is suicide bombers�in fact, the attack on the Twin Towers was a case of using a human bomber as a weapon of mass destruction; third, there is the existential threat which hurts the way of pluralistic life and abbreviates democracy; and last, there is organized crime. I want to bring to your attention the fact that, prior to coming to Moscow, I picked up several interesting reports. The first one was about semi-processed uranium of explosive grade, 225 g packets with a twenty-three page manual, tracked somewhere in Bangladesh; the country of origin was Kazakhstan. The second report concerned a case of 130 lbs of cesium, which was for sale and traced to Laos and Thailand; the country of origin was Latvia. There is also an IAEA report which indicates that since 1993, there have been 175 cases of nuclear material trafficking and 201 cases of radioactive material trafficking. I am providing these statistics to highlight the challenges that are ahead of us. My personal discussions with Indian nuclear scientists tell me that non-state actors are still some distance from acquiring a nuclear device or a nuclear weapon unless a state provides them with active assistance. On the other hand, a dirty bomb, radioactive, is very well within their grasp. This is a rather unhappy state of affairs. The proliferation of radioactive/atomic material between states has been recognized. Some states are known conduits of transfer of such material and allegedly for non-state actors too. </p>
<h3 align="center"><strong>CONCEPT OF DETERRENCE AND CONCLUSIONS </strong></h3>
<p align="left"> What should an effective concept of deterrence against these new security threats be like? For deterrence to work, we must send the message across to non-state actors that we will get them whatever it takes and that their costs for committing acts of terrorism will be far greater than the perceived rewards. This concept should be implemented at three different levels: </p>
<p align="left"> a) Operational - with proactive and defensive measures. The proactive measures would include preemptive intelligence relying largely on human intelligence and squeezing of funding. The defensive measures would have two main areas of activity: consequence prevention and preemption on the one hand, and consequence management, which we talked about during the session. </p>
<p align="left"> b) Economic - by finding alternatives for Islamists and Jihadis. </p>
<p align="left"> c) Sociological and political - by targeting the breeding ground of terrorists and non-state actors such as seminaries and madrassas. </p>
<p align="left"> Finally, what conclusions can we draw from our discussions? (1) It is important for state actors to be earnest. (2) States and superstates must persuade erring states to fall in line. (3) States must be made to sever links with non-state actors. (4) All direct or indirect forms of assistance including transfers and even ideological support must be stopped. An example would be the vicious cycle of transfers between China, Pakistan, North Korea, and Iran, Pakistan being the principal culprit. (5) Accords and treaties must be implemented both in letter and in spirit. For example the U.S. still has not signed the verification protocol on the biological weapons convention. We need to keep an inventory of institutions that store and use chemical and biological agents. (6) And last, to deal with international terrorism, national interests must find space to accommodate international interests. </p>
<h2 class="style196"> </h2>
<h3> </h3>
<h2 class="style196"><br>
<br>
</h2>
</div>
<!-- InstanceEndEditable --></div>
</div>
<!--end content -->
<div id="siteInfo"><a href="/index.html">Home Page</a> | ©2003, 2004 CSDR</div>
</div>
<!--end pagecell1-->
<br>
<script type="text/javascript">
<!--
var menuitem1 = new menu(7,1,"hidden");
var menuitem2 = new menu(7,2,"hidden");
var menuitem3 = new menu(7,3,"hidden");
var menuitem4 = new menu(7,4,"hidden");
var menuitem5 = new menu(7,5,"hidden");
var menuitem6 = new menu(7,6,"hidden");
var menuitem7 = new menu(7,7,"hidden");
// -->
</script>
</body>
<!-- InstanceEnd --></html>