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<title>Center for Strategic Decision Research, Peter Struck, Michele Alliot-Marie, General George Joulwan, SACEUR, General James L. Jones, SHAPE, NATO, EU, BDLI, ILA, EADS, Northrop Grumman, Under Secretary Michael Wynne, Assistant Secretary Linton Wells, Ambassador William Burns, NATO Military Committee Chairman General Harald Kujat, General Dynamics, Boeing, Global Security Terrorism, Iraq, Afghanistan, Rainer Hertrich, David Stafford</title>
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<p align="center" class="style244">20th International Workshop on Global Security - Moscow, 27-30 June 2003<br>
"Toward Global Security: New Strategies, Technologies, and Alliances"</p>
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<p align="center" class="style220"><strong>Table of Contents </strong></p>
<p align="left" class="style220"><a href="/2003Book/joulwan.htm">Fmr SACEUR General George Joulwan </a><span class="style217"><strong></strong></span><span class="style217"><strong><a href="/2003Book/overview.htm">Workshop Chairman Roger Weissinger-Baylon </a></strong></span></p>
<p align="center" class="style220"><strong>Pa</strong><strong>rt 1 </strong></p>
<p class="style220"><span class="style217"><strong><a href="/2003Book/fursenko.htm">Russian First Deputy Industry, Science, Tech Minister Andrey Fursenko</a></strong></span><span class="style217"><strong><a href="/2003Book/vershbow.htm">US Ambassador to Russia Alexander Vershbow</a></strong></span><span class="style217"><strong><a href="/2003Book/lukin.htm">Russian Duma Deputy Speaker Vladimir Lukin </a></strong></span><span class="style217"><strong><a href="/2003Book/yavlinsky.htm">Russian Duma Member Grigory Yavlinsky</a></strong></span><span class="style217"><a href="/2003Book/velikhov.htm">Kurchatov Institute Director Evgeny Velikhov </a><a href="/2003Book/pickering.htm">Fmr US Ambassador to Russia Thomas Pickering</a><a href="/2003Book/portillo.htm">UK House of Commons Member Michael Portillo</a><a href="/2003Book/deruyt.htm">Belgian Ambassador to UN Jean de Ruyt</a><a href="/2003Book/vonploetz.htm">German Ambassador to Russia Hans-Friedrich von Ploetz </a><a href="/2003Book/wolsztynski.htm">French Air Force Chief of Staff General Richard Wolsztynski</a><a href="/2003Book/sedivy.htm">Fmr Czech Chief of Staff General Jiri Sedivy </a><a href="/2003Book/mehta.htm">Indian Armed Forces General Ashok Mehta</a></span><span class="style217"><a href="/2003Book/george.htm">UK House of Commons Member Bruce George</a></span><span class="style217"><a href="/2003Book/nurick.htm">Carnegie Moscow Center Director Robert Nurick</a><a href="/2003Book/ranquet.htm"> French Defense Ministry Dep Director Strat Affairs General Robert Ranquet</a></span></p>
<p align="center" class="style220"><strong>Part 2 </strong></p>
<p class="style220"><span class="style217"><span class="style222"><a href="/2003Book/fasslabend.htm">Fmr Austrian Defense Min Werner Fasslabend</a></span></span><span class="style217"><span class="style222"><a href="/2003Book/rogov.htm">Russian Acad of Sciences USA Canada Institute Director Serguey Rogov</a><a href="/2003Book/baranovsky.htm"> Russian Acad of Sciences IMEMO Deputy Director Vladimir Baranovsky</a><a href="/2003Book/piontkovskiy.htm">Strat Studies Ctr Director Andrey Piontkovskiy</a></span></span><span class="style219"><a href="/2003Book/onyszkiewicz.htm">Fmr Polish Defense Min Janusz Onyszkiewicz </a><a href="/2003Book/welti.htm"> Swiss Defense Ministry Security Policy Director Amb Philippe Welti</a><a href="/2003Book/pascu.htm">Romanian Defense Minister Ioan Pascu </a><a href="/2003Book/chandra.htm">Indian Dep Natl Security Advisor Satish Chandra</a><a href="/2003Book/marschan.htm">Finnish Defense Ministry Special Counselor Nikolai Marschan</a></span></p>
<p align="center" class="style220"><strong>Part 3 </strong></p>
<p class="style220"><span class="style219"><a href="/2003Book/volkman.htm">US Defense Dept Dir for Intl Coop Alfred Volkman</a><a href="/2003Book/dipaola.htm">Italian Sec Gen Defense Adm Giampaolo di Paola </a></span><span class="style209"><span class="style197"><a href="/2003Book/schuwirth.htm">EU Mil Staff Director General Rainer Schuwirth </a></span><span #invalid_attr_id="10px 0px 0px 10px"><span class="style197"><a href="/2003Book/naumann.htm">Fmr German Defense Chief Gen Klaus Naumann </a></span></span></span><span class="style219"><a href="/2003Book/cosentino.htm">Alenia Sr Vice President Carmelo Costentino</a><a href="/2003Book/trice.htm">Lockheed Martin Sr Vice President Robert Trice </a><a href="/2003Book/ray.htm">Raytheon Europe President Norman Ray</a></span><span class="style219"><a href="/2003Book/dyson.htm">EDventure Chairman Esther Dyson</a></span><span class="style219"><a href="/2003Book/kravchenko.htm">Boeing Russia/CIS Pres Sergey Kravchenko</a></span><span class="style219"><a href="/2003Book/karachinsky.htm">IBS Group President Anatoly Karachinsky</a></span><span class="style219"><a href="/2003Book/doughty.htm">Motorola Vice President John Doughty</a></span><span class="style219"><a href="/2003Book/galitsky.htm">ELVIS+ Founder and CEO Alexander Galitsky</a></span><span class="style219"><a href="/2003Book/lentz.htm">US Assist Sec Defense Office Director of Info Assurance Robert Lentz</a> </span><span class="style219"><a href="/2003Book/coggins.htm">Silicon Graphics Sr Vice President Steve Coggins</a></span><span class="style219"><a href="/2003Book/gante.htm">BDLI President Hans-Joachim Gante</a></span><span class="style217"><a href="/2003Book/sinha.htm">MITRE VP Agam Sinha</a></span></p>
<p align="center" class="style220"><strong>Part 4 </strong></p>
<p class="style220"><span class="style219"><a href="/2003Book/linkevicius.htm">Lithuanian Defense Minister Linas Linkevicius</a></span><span class="style219"><a href="/2003Book/korcok.htm">Slovakian State Secretary of Foreign Affairs Ivan Korcok</a></span><span class="style219"><a href="/2003Book/brodi.htm">Hungarian Dep State Secretary of Foreign Affairs Gabor Brodi</a></span><span class="style219"><a href="/2003Book/hunter.htm">Fmr US Ambassador to NATO Robert Hunter</a></span><span class="style219"><a href="/2003Book/vondra.htm">Czech Dep Foreign Minister Alexandr Vondra</a> <br>
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<h1 class="style196">Will There Be More or Less Security for Europe After Enlargement?</h1>
<h2 align="center"> <br>
His Excellency Linas Linkevicius<br>
Minister of Defense of Lithuania</h2>
<p align="left">Will there be more or less security for Europe after enlargement? My answer is that there will certainly be more. However, there will also be more unpredictable challenges, more unconventional threats that are not local or even regional but global in nature and scope. If we want to cope with these challenges and prevail, we simply must cooperate closely. </p>
<p align="left"> Since the Prague summit, the area of stability and predictability has been expanding. This profound development will positively affect the overall security landscape of the entire Euro-Atlantic area, including the Baltic Sea region. That is not to say that there will be any major changes in our bilateral or multilateral defense-related relations with our partners and neighbors. The fact that we will be taking part in NATO's decision-making and policy-formation processes will only add a new quality of credibility and transparency to our security and defense policy. </p>
<h3 align="center"><strong>PARTNERING WITH RUSSIA</strong><strong></strong></h3>
<p align="left"> I believe that there is a promising future for the partnership between NATO and Russia in post-Prague Europe. I also hope that Lithuania will use its experience to make a valuable contribution to their dialogue. Lithuania has managed to turn its dramatic past under the Soviet Union into a window of opportunity for building a peaceful future. </p>
<p align="left"> Russia and Lithuania have been successfully cooperating on a number of issues, including minority rights, border and readmission treaties, cross-border cooperation, transit (including military), and troop withdrawal. We bring all of this experience to the Alliance. And because we all have a stake in the Euro-Atlantic community's efforts to bring Russia as close to NATO as Russia wants to come, I believe the true success of this new round of NATO enlargement will not be so much the accession of new members but the Alliance's rapprochement with Russia. </p>
<p align="left"> There is a common sentiment that Russia is an indispensable part of the Euro-Atlantic community. We must make sure that NATO enlargement does not result in new dividing lines on the European continent. For half a century we were the victims of an artificial line drawn across Europe, and we know very well the long-term damage that creates. Of course some remnants of the old way of thinking remain, as well as a desire to isolate Russia from the Euro-Atlantic community on both sides. But we should be patient with those who have not caught up with changing times and lag behind in their perception of today's world. </p>
<p align="left"> I will not pretend that all things are perfect and rosy but integrating Russia into the Euro-Atlantic security area is a challenge, not a problem. It is hard to imagine having better momentum than we do now to move cooperation forward to a new level. All of us�the U.S., Europe, and Russia�should understand that this is a historic opportunity and it would be wasteful not to use it. The Baltic Sea region is as stable as any region can be in this unpredictable era and we must make full use of the region's existing cooperation framework as well as look for new opportunities. </p>
<p align="left">The Council of Baltic Sea States, the Northern Dimension Initiative, the Northern European Initiative, and BALTSEA, among others, are mechanisms that safeguard stability and security. They are what I mean by security through interdependence: building as many bilateral and multilateral ties as possible and building on very practical initiatives as well as pooling resources and working together. In the defense realm, it is time to consider launching a concrete regional initiative that would involve NATO, Russia, and the other countries in our region; for example, we could think about a common training project in Kaliningrad. Even a modest project would boost mil-to-mil dialogue and confidence building between NATO and Russia, as well as improve force interoperability for peace-support and for crisis-response operations. </p>
<p align="left"> One thing is certain: we must more closely engage our Eastern partners�Russia, Ukraine, the South Caucasus, and Central Asian countries�in this cooperative effort. Without them, the Euro-Atlantic security system would be incomplete. This is why we must now help to implement NATO's promise to keep the door open for those willing and ready to join. This is the very essence of the Vilnius process as a cooperative effort to pursue NATO partnership. The Vilnius process should now encompass not only the most obvious candidates�Macedonia, Albania, and Croatia�but also other countries that seek to intensify their cooperation with the Alliance. </p>
<h3 align="center"><strong></strong><strong>KEEPING U.S. INTEREST IN EUROPE STRONG</strong></h3>
<p align="left"> It is my belief that we should seek the involvement of the United States in these matters. It was very sad to see the spirit of transatlantic solidarity, which was so wholeheartedly displayed after September 11, rapidly fade in the face of a new crisis. To save the transatlantic alliance we must now preserve U.S. interest in and commitment to Europe, and vice versa; as future members of both NATO and the EU we have a vital stake in that cooperation. After all, the U.S., Europe, and Russia all have the same basic agenda in the Euro-Atlantic area: to strengthen regional security and counter new challenges, such as terrorism and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. </p>
<h3 align="center"><strong></strong><strong>THE NEED FOR A RAPID-REACTION MILITARY</strong><strong></strong></h3>
<p align="left"> For the past decade, our region has not seen a single violent spark involving force or the threat to use force by any country. A recently resolved transit issue involving Kaliningrad is the latest example of how we can peacefully settle even the most difficult disputes. Good relations with our neighbors remain the key to security after Prague. But there is bad news too: in a rapidly changing world, we cannot be sure where new and unpredictable challenges will occur and what kinds of challenges they will be. In fact, the greatest risk I see to our security is that changes will occur more rapidly than our ability to adapt to them. </p>
<p align="left"> Therefore our military must be ready for any scenario. Because of our history, we should feel vulnerable to traditional threats, but instead we are among those who argue that NATO must transform itself from an immobile defense alliance into a flexible rapid-reaction, conflict-prevention force capable of prompt intervention wherever needed. Today's threats do not allow long force-buildup periods; the armed forces must be capable of reacting in a matter of days or even hours. No less important, the war in Iraq has shown that, to prevent humanitarian disasters, civilian crisis-management and peace-building efforts must take place almost simultaneously with military operations. </p>
<p align="left">We often talk about a capabilities gap between the U.S. and Europe. To my mind, the true problem is a gap in threat assessment. Naturally, different countries have different security concerns. At the same time the need for a common denominator of threats is greater than ever before. Terrorist act, <em>teraresticheskij akt, teroristischer anflug, atto terroristico, acte de terreur</em>�it does not matter which language we use, because the threat is the same and an obvious area of converging interests. Ad hoc coalitions may provide temporary salvation in a crisis, but only a battle-scarred and storm-beaten organization such as NATO can be a long-term solution. If NATO is to remain relevant in the 21st century, it must go out of area or it will simply go out of business. </p>
<h3 align="center"><strong>LITHUANIA'S CONTRIBUTIONS TO SECURITY</strong></h3>
<p align="left"> To match our words with deeds, we are rapidly transforming our armed forces, dropping our outdated territorial defense posture, acquiring modern military capabilities, and literally going out of area in order to become a trustworthy new ally within a new alliance. Lithuania's defense policy is proof of this. We maintain 13 military commitments and participate in seven international missions, including Afghanistan, Kosovo, Iraq, and Macedonia. After we deploy our second peacekeeping contingent to Iraq with the Polish mission, we will have deployed nearly 300 troops abroad. For a country with 3.5 million inhabitants and a 12,000-strong army, this is not a symbolic contribution to international security. We believe that our security is not just a national endeavor, but starts way beyond our borders: in the Balkans, in the Caucasus, in the Near East. If these regions are not stable and at peace, we will always feel the ripple effect of insecurity. </p>
<h3 align="center"><strong></strong><strong></strong><strong>CONCLUDING REMARKS</strong></h3>
<p align="left"> Twenty years ago, nobody believed that the Cold War could end peacefully. Ten years ago nobody thought Lithuania would become a member of NATO, and nobody ever imagined that the Twin Towers could collapse. Who can tell what will happen tomorrow? Although today our nations may feel more secure than ever before, in fact we face a whole new era of unforeseen challenges, unpredicted threats, and unexpected crises. And if we continue living with the fears and prejudices of the past, we are doomed to fail in the future. </p>
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