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<TITLE>2001Book - Final</TITLE>
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<HR SIZE="2"><P ALIGN="CENTER"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" SIZE="7" FACE="Palatino">
Chapter 13
</FONT></P><HR SIZE="2">
<P ALIGN="CENTER"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" SIZE="5" FACE="Palatino">
The Next Steps in NATO Enlargement: <BR>
The View from Brussels
</FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="CENTER"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" SIZE="3" FACE="Palatino">
U.S. Ambassador to NATO Alexander Vershbow
</FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="CENTER"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" SIZE="3" FACE="Palatino">
<BR>
</FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" SIZE="2" FACE="Palatino">
<FONT COLOR="#000000" FACE="Palatino" SIZE="7">W</FONT>hile NATO enlargement is no longer as explosive a subject as it used to
 be in the American debate or among our NATO Allies, it continues to cause
 a stir in a place where I have spent a great deal of my time since joining
 the Foreign Service 24 years ago: Russia. I do not plan to set off any
 bombs today, but let me see if I can ignite the discussion by introducing
 a bit of the Brussels perspective on enlargement&#151;and its relationship to
 other hot items on NATO&#146;s plate. <FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" FACE="Times New Roman" SIZE="2"></FONT>
</FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" SIZE="2" FACE="Palatino">
At the Washington Summit in 1999, Allied leaders reaffirmed their commitment
 to the &#147;open door.&#148; They formally welcomed Poland, Hungary, and the Czech
 Republic to the ranks of full NATO members and declared that the Alliance
 would admit new members in the future. While they deferred decisions on
 additional invitations, NATO leaders launched the Membership Action Plan
 as a new and improved mechanism for helping aspiring members better prepare
 themselves for the burdens as well as the benefits of NATO membership.

</FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" SIZE="2" FACE="Palatino">
In Prague, all our inspirational words about building a Europe whole, free,
 and at peace will be tested as Allied leaders gather to consider whether
 or not to invite new members and how to equip NATO for the challenges of
 the new millennium. All these decisions will have consequences&#151;for potential
 new members, for those not invited, and for the Alliance itself. For all
 nine aspirant nations, Prague will be the culmination of almost a decade
 of hard work intended to demonstrate that these nations have the will and
 the resources to contribute to their own security and to a common European
 defense&#151;in other words, to act like Allies. The pressure, therefore, is
 on the aspirants and on the Allies as well, who have raised hopes and expectations
 that, at least for some aspirants, may not be fulfilled.
</FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" SIZE="2" FACE="Palatino">
I do not want to dwell on the strategic rationale for NATO enlargement,
 which was much debated during the last round and during the U.S. Senate&#146;s
 ratification process. Suffice it to say that it remains my firm conviction&#151;and,
 more importantly, that of the Bush administration&#151;that enlargement offers
 a critical and indispensable means to build a united, stable, and democratic
 Europe, which remains a vital and enduring U.S. interest. Perhaps even
 more significantly, this conviction is shared by the other members of the
 Alliance, in contrast with the situation six or seven years ago. Their
 experience in the last round convinced the Allies of how important continued
 enlargement is to the process of building a Europe whole, free, and secure.

</FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" SIZE="2" FACE="Palatino">
But, as with so many other aspects of today&#146;s Europe, there may be a significant
 gap between theory and practice when it comes to the next round of enlargement.
 Many European Allies are already signaling a preference for a very cautious,
 incremental approach in Prague. Some worry about NATO becoming too unwieldy
 if it grows much bigger; some wonder aloud whether the strategic gains
 of admitting a handful of small Central European countries are worth the
 costs; some are openly concerned about the Russian reaction, given the
 chillier wind that has blown through NATO-Russia relations since the air
 campaign and the ascendancy of Vladimir . All the Allies are waiting to
 see where the United States wants to go and, clearly, U.S. leadership will
 be key.
</FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="CENTER"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" SIZE="3" FACE="Palatino">
<B>DEALING WITH NATO&#146;S OTHER CHALLENGES</B>
</FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" SIZE="2" FACE="Palatino">
The debate on what will constitute the next steps in enlargement will be
 affected by how well we do managing the other major challenges facing the
 Alliance today. In addition to enlargement, I see four big challenges,
 each of which has the potential to divide the Alliance and make it harder
 to achieve our priority objectives in European security, including our
 objectives for NATO enlargement itself. These challenges are the Balkans,
 the European Security and Defense Policy (which relates to the larger challenge
 of closing the U.S.-European gap in defense capabilities), missile defense,
 and relations with Russia. Our challenge for the remainder of 2001 is to
 handle each of these potential &#147;wedge&#148; issues skillfully and creatively
 to clear the field for a positive and successful summit in Prague. Here,
 too, the challenge of translating theory into practice isn&#146;t simple.
</FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" SIZE="2" FACE="Palatino">
<I>The Balkans</I>. After nearly wrecking the transatlantic relationship in the
 early 1990s, the situation in the Balkans helped redefine NATO&#146;s role for
 the post-Cold War era. The critical difference came when the U.S. decided
 to exercise leadership in ending the Bosnian war in the summer and fall
 of 1995, and in confronting Milosevic&#146;s brutal repression in Kosovo in
 early 1999. Now NATO&#146;s challenge is different: How can we draw down our
 peacekeeping missions as successfully as we ramped them up? The task is
 to transfer responsibility from our military forces to international civilian
 agencies and, ultimately, to local governments that are becoming too comfortable
 as international protectorates. We are closer to being able to give civilian
 authorities in Bosnia more responsibility, and thereby reduce our force
 levels, than we are to doing so in Kosovo. But we will not cut and run.
 As Secretary Powell told the North Atlantic Council on February 27, 2001,
 &#147;We went in together; we will leave together.&#148; But we need to push harder
 to &#147;civilianize&#148; peace building in the Balkans, and to continue to place
 the bulk of international responsibility on the shoulders of our European
 friends and allies&#151;albeit without forgetting the unique leverage, credibility,
 and reputation for evenhandedness that the U.S. brings to bear in the region.
 <FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" FACE="Times New Roman" SIZE="2"></FONT>
</FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" SIZE="2" FACE="Palatino">
Drawing down our peacekeeping missions has been complicated by the new
 troubles that have flared up in Macedonia and Southern Serbia. In both
 cases, we have had to marginalize armed extremists and crack down on their
 supporters in Kosovo while encouraging the Macedonian and Serbian governments
 to follow through on political and economic reforms that address the legitimate
 aspirations of their Albanian minorities. Having just returned from a visit
 to the region, I am optimistic that we and our allies will be able to manage
 the latest crises and, slowly but surely, begin to draw down NATO&#146;s peacekeeping
 forces.
</FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" SIZE="2" FACE="Palatino">
<I>The European Security and Defense Policy</I>. The situation is a bit more uncertain
 for the second challenge, ESDI/ESDP. The possibility for making the European
 Security and Defense Identity (or Policy) a &#147;win-win&#148; situation for NATO
 and the EU certainly exists, and the Bush administration has made it clear
 how this can happen: ESDI/ESDP must add to our collective capabilities;
 it must be grounded in joint planning and tightly knit political consultations
 between NATO and the EU; and it must ensure the fullest possible participation
 of non-EU Allies in the EU&#146;s defense activities, in keeping with their
 shared interests and obligations as Alliance members. On the latter issue&#151;participation
 of non-EU Allies&#151;the U.S. can and will play a facilitating role, but the
 problem will be resolved only by direct efforts between the EU and Turkey,
 the most dissatisfied of the non-EU Allies, and only if both sides are
 more realistic and flexible. <FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" FACE="Times New Roman" SIZE="2"></FONT>
</FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" SIZE="2" FACE="Palatino">
The real litmus test of ESDI/ESDP will be capabilities. The EU&#146;s Headline
 Goal represents a significant start, but we still do not see efforts being
 made by many EU countries to find the additional resources needed to deliver
 on their ambitious pledges. Moreover, resistance in some quarters to common
 NATO-EU defense planning runs the risk of creating disconnects between
 NATO and EU force goals. If Europeans focus mainly on low-end peacekeeping
 capabilities, ESDP may be declared a success, yet NATO will end up a two-tiered
 Alliance, with the gap between U.S. and European forces even wider than
 it is today.
</FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" SIZE="2" FACE="Palatino">
<I>Missile Defense</I>. While the U.S. and our Allies have been on different wavelengths
 about the threat posed by the proliferation of missile technology and weapons
 of mass destruction, I think Europe has slowly but steadily begun to recognize
 that there is a threat and that we must meet it together. Allies are in
 no doubt about the determination of the new U.S. administration to build
 missile defenses as soon as the technology permits, and to move beyond
 the Cold War thinking embodied in the ABM Treaty. Allies have also been
 favorably impressed by the administration&#146;s shift in emphasis from the
 defense of U.S. territory alone to the defense of Allies and deployed forces
 as well (dropping the &#147;N&#148; in NMD); they are now more inclined to work with
 us&#151;through the Alliance&#151;to develop a common approach to the &#147;when and how.&#148;
 This will take time, and Allies still have many questions and concerns,
 but I am optimistic that we have launched a process that will allow the
 Alliance to deal constructively with MD in the same way it handled earlier
 controversial subjects, such as Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces (INF).
</FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" SIZE="2" FACE="Palatino">
<I>Relations with Russia</I>. Success in handling missile defense within the Alliance
 will enhance our ability to deal with Moscow on this issue, which brings
 me to challenge number four, Russia. Moscow froze the NATO-Russia relationship
 in response to NATO&#146;s decision to launch the Kosovo air campaign. While
 the Russians remain wary of the Alliance, perestroika in NATO-Russia relations
 is well underway. Our military cooperation on the ground in the Balkans
 is quite good, and modest but useful work is taking place across a broad
 front in the Permanent Joint Council, in such areas as submarine search
 and rescue, conventional arms control, and military reform. Secretary General
 Robertson&#146;s January 2001 visit to Moscow marked the opening of a NATO Information
 Office there, which should help us connect with the next generation of
 Russian leaders, who may take a less &#147;zero-sum&#148; approach to security. <FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" FACE="Times New Roman" SIZE="2"></FONT>
</FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" SIZE="2" FACE="Palatino">
Through their &#147;EuroMD&#148; proposal, the Russians have also acknowledged the
 danger of missile proliferation and the legitimacy of defenses as a response.
 They even use the term &#147;rogue states,&#148; although their continued military
 ties with Iran suggest we have a way to go in aligning our threat perceptions.
 In sum, the trends in NATO-Russia relations are favorable&#151;but far from
 irreversible. The challenge is to see whether we can develop additional
 areas for tangible cooperation with Moscow so that the Russians feel they
 have a real stake in working with NATO, a stake strong enough to withstand
 the shock the next time NATO does something to which they object.
</FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="CENTER"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" SIZE="3" FACE="Palatino">
<B>THE RUSSIAN DIMENSION AND THE NEXT STAGE<BR>
 OF NATO ENLARGEMENT</B>
</FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" SIZE="2" FACE="Palatino">
Moscow&#146;s response to the next round of enlargement will depend on many
 factors, including the state of their relations with NATO, with the U.S.,
 and with other allies and, of course, on which countries receive invitations.
 Moscow has not objected strenuously to the aspirations of many of the Central
 European countries, but has drawn a &#147;red line&#148; around the Baltic States
 even though it acknowledges every country&#146;s right under the Helsinki Final
 Act to choose its own security arrangements. We should gird ourselves for
 a strong reaction&#151;such as another suspension of cooperation with NATO&#151;if
 one or more of the Baltic States are invited. <FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" FACE="Times New Roman" SIZE="2"></FONT>
</FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" SIZE="2" FACE="Palatino">
Some boundaries of self-interest, however, will limit Moscow&#146;s inclination
 to break off ties with NATO. One of our goals should be to search for mutually
 beneficial areas of cooperation that will give Moscow an even greater stake
 in its relationship with the Alliance. We can also take steps to mitigate
 Russian concerns, for example, by reaffirming NATO&#146;s unilateral assurances
 that nuclear weapons and substantial combat forces will not be deployed
 on new members&#146; territory, in light of the current security environment
 in Europe. But we must guard against Russian efforts to extract additional
 &#147;concessions&#148; from NATO to buy their acquiescence to the addition of new
 NATO members. We also must make clear that hostage taking on issues such
 as missile defense will backfire. So will such tactics as delaying the
 resolution of bilateral disputes, as in the Duma&#146;s non-ratification of
 border treaties with the Baltic States, in the hope that it will deter
 NATO from issuing invitations. At the end of the day, the Russia factor
 will not be the determining factor in the enlargement debate. All Allies
 are quite firm that Russia cannot have veto power, and all believe that
 we can address Russia&#146;s concerns&#151;both real and psychological&#151;as we did
 in 1997 without compromising our larger interests and values. Allies will,
 as in 1997, look to the U.S. to take the lead in managing Russia and having
 a more clear-eyed, realistic stance toward Russia is the right way to start.
</FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="CENTER"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" SIZE="3" FACE="Palatino">
<B>SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE ALLIANCE DEBATE</B>
</FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" SIZE="2" FACE="Palatino">
What are the other factors that will affect decision making on enlargement
 in Prague? Some Allies are already itching to open a debate in Brussels
 on the modalities of the next round, in hopes of pushing Washington to
 name names or to end some candidates&#146; possibilities early. Some are warning
 that they won&#146;t obediently follow the U.S. lead this time&#151;reflecting the
 lingering resentment over how the decision was reached a month before the
 Madrid Summit to invite three rather than five candidates. <FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" FACE="Times New Roman" SIZE="2"></FONT>
</FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" SIZE="2" FACE="Palatino">
Still others are trying to influence our decision-making process by raising
 concerns about the implications of enlargement on the cohesion and efficient
 functioning of the Alliance, both politically and militarily. Will the
 North Atlantic Council become bogged down in endless discussions when it
 grows to 21, 22, 25, or even 28 members? Will it be more susceptible to
 the formation of regional caucuses or an EU caucus? Will the political-military
 character that has been the foundation of the organization be weakened
 by having too many members?
</FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" SIZE="2" FACE="Palatino">
The European Union, of course, has been wrestling for the past few years
 with how to continue making effective decisions as it prepares to grow
 from 15 to as many as 28 members. From where I sit, the complexity of NATO
 decision making has not increased to any significant degree since the three
 newest members joined in March 1999, and I do not see any inherent reason
 why it would be much harder when additional democratic nations join the
 club. Difficulty in reaching consensus is more often the consequence of
 U.S. disagreements with other major Allies than a function of the number
 of members. Clearly, if NATO is going to remain capable of reaching consensus,
 democratic values must be shared by all, and there can be no internal caucuses.
 But consensus will have to remain the rule in an organization that focuses
 on security.
</FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" SIZE="2" FACE="Palatino">
However, achieving consensus in the future may be more difficult, not because
 of an increase in numbers but because the Alliance&#146;s future tasks will
 consist primarily of non-Article 5 operations in which NATO action is discretionary
 and individual nations&#146; participation voluntary. The 1999 Strategic Concept,
 however, already acknowledges that Allies may need to resort to coalitions
 of the willing for some out-of-area efforts. Moreover, NATO has demonstrated
 an ability to conduct such operations when some Allies &#147;opt out&#148;&#151;without
 blocking consensus, but also without providing forces or politically unpalatable
 assistance such as the use of bases. In my view, NATO will be able to function
 with more members as long as the U.S. continues to exert leadership and
 remains effective in coalition building.
</FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" SIZE="2" FACE="Palatino">
For real-world illustrations, we need only look at the record of the three
 newest members and their experience in the run-up to accession and since.
 Two years after their accession, it is my judgment that all three of the
 new entrants deserve good marks, even if there is plenty of room for improvement.
 Defense reforms and military modernization were always understood to be
 a decade-long process, and all three countries are more or less on track
 despite resource constraints. All three are contributing to NATO&#146;s Balkans
 operation&#151;Polish forces, in particular, have been singled out by U.S. and
 NATO commanders for their excellent performance in KFOR and SFOR, notwithstanding
 their antiquated equipment. All three of the new members have been active
 and constructive contributors to NATO debates and have taken Atlanticist
 positions on key issues such as ESDI.
</FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" SIZE="2" FACE="Palatino">
By the same token, the shock of joining the Alliance and, within a week,
 being asked to participate in decisions on combat operations did cause
 some erosion in public support for NATO in Hungary and the Czech Republic.
 But support rebounded quickly in both countries and looks solid once again.
 My bottom-line assessment&#151;one with which I don&#146;t think the three countries
 themselves would disagree&#151;remains that all three new Allies have a lot
 of work ahead of them, but their performances do not justify a &#147;go slow&#148;
 approach to further enlargement. Performance, however, will be key to deciding
 which of the next group of aspirants might receive invitations in Prague.
 This brings me to the focus of the work on enlargement in Brussels today,
 the Membership Action Plan, or MAP.
</FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="CENTER"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" SIZE="3" FACE="Palatino">
<B>MAP: THE KEY TO THE CREDIBILITY OF THE ENLARGEMENT PROCESS</B>
</FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" SIZE="2" FACE="Palatino">
The U.S. designed and championed the MAP, and has succeeded in keeping
 the process more or less on track since its launch in 1999. It is no secret
 that many of the aspirants viewed the MAP as a delaying tactic when it
 was unveiled at the Washington Summit. But we have proved the skeptics
 wrong. We have worked intensively with all the aspirants to help them improve
 their qualifications across the board&#151;bearing in mind that the MAP covers
 not just defense restructuring and modernization, but political and economic
 factors as well. We have lent our political support to aspirants&#146; sometimes
 painful and politically unpopular efforts at reform. Through the MAP&#146;s
 frequent cycles of 19+1 consultations and other feedback mechanisms, we
 have advised the aspirants on how to reshape their policies and doctrines
 to today&#146;s security environment. We have driven home the importance of
 setting realistic priorities and then building public and parliamentary
 support. <FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" FACE="Times New Roman" SIZE="2"></FONT>
</FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" SIZE="2" FACE="Palatino">
The candidates understand that the MAP is not a definitive checklist that
 leads to membership. At the end of the day, we and the other 18 Allies
 will need to consider how enlargement in general, and the entry of particular
 countries, will serve our broader interests. This includes weighing the
 trade-off between advancing the unification of Europe and preserving NATO&#146;s
 military strength and credibility. But the more that aspirants are able
 to provide forces and capabilities for collective defense and the full
 spectrum of other Alliance missions, the less of a political/military trade-off
 there will be. That is why the Bush administration, in its first meetings
 with ministers from aspirant countries, is making it unambiguously clear
 that performance in fulfilling the goals of the Membership Action Plan
 will be central to the debate and decisions on enlargement in 2002.
</FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" SIZE="2" FACE="Palatino">
Because of the rigors aspirant countries underwent during the MAP&#146;s first
 two cycles, it is already possible to say that we will have a stronger
 pool of candidates from which to choose in 2002. However, let me make it
 clear that as of yet none of the candidates has done enough to be considered
 a sure thing&#151;all of them have a long way to go. Secretary General Robertson
 has been on a personal crusade when he visits aspirant countries to hammer
 home the message that greater military efforts are needed to qualify. In
 fact, some countries may have become overly complacent. They wrongly assumed
 that the flip side of the NATO mantra that &#147;no Euro-Atlantic country will
 be excluded on the basis of geography&#148; was also true&#151;i.e., that distance
 from Russia means that they can coast to the finish line without making
 a serious effort in the defense sphere.
</FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" SIZE="2" FACE="Palatino">
Based on the NATO team visits to capitals during the winter of 2001 and
 the cold shower all aspirants received over their shortcomings in defense
 capabilities, I can report that it is now very clear to aspirants that
 their MAP performance matters. They are all working flat out, taking full
 advantage of the feedback and assistance NATO can provide. In addition,
 the Pentagon and the European Command (EUCOM) remain actively engaged on
 a bilateral basis in reinforcing NATO&#146;s efforts. Whatever is decided in
 Prague, the aspirants are all becoming better partners, and their armed
 forces are better able to operate alongside NATO&#146;s and to protect their
 own nation&#146;s security. Keeping the competition merit based, I would add,
 keeps the playing field level for the Baltic States, which obviously raise
 more difficult political questions than the other candidates in the minds
 of some Allies. Thanks to the MAP, all aspirants will get a fair hearing,
 even if this discomfits those most nervous about Russia&#146;s reaction.
</FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="CENTER"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" SIZE="3" FACE="Palatino">
<B>PREPARING FOR THE END GAME</B>
</FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" SIZE="2" FACE="Palatino">
All of the steps I have just mentioned will lead us, I believe, toward
 a less chaotic decision-making process than we experienced in 1997. So
 when should we open the debate about candidates? I think it is still much
 too early to begin formal discussions. If Madrid is any guide, we will
 have a politically charged debate, at the end of which all Allies will
 not be satisfied on all issues. To start debating specific membership scenarios
 and combinations more than a year before Prague risks provoking transatlantic
 quarrels, which will inevitably leak, and diverting the aspirants&#146; attention
 from the hard work we are asking them to do under the MAP. Even more importantly,
 it will make it harder to manage the other challenges facing the Alliance,
 which, as I stressed, must be done before we start a serious debate on
 enlargement in 2002.
</FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" SIZE="2" FACE="Palatino">
There are many different options for handling invitations when the time
 comes, ranging from taking just a few of the aspirants to taking them all
 (the &#147;Big Bang&#148;). We might opt for inviting a large number of new members
 but stretch out their accessions over time, putting those doing better
 on a fast track and the others in a regatta-like procession analogous to
 the approach the EU has adopted. Or we might limit ourselves to a small
 group, taking into account regional interests and geographic diversity
 as well as their MAP performances. Or we could make the decision not to
 invite any countries at all in 2002 if none of them is really ready, but
 set an early date for a follow-on summit. The &#147;zero option&#148; may be the
 secret favorite of a few Allies, but it would run the risk of demoralizing
 the aspirants, undercutting pro-Western reformers, and eroding support
 for U.S. and NATO policies. On the other hand, it could be just as damaging
 to invite borderline candidates that might not pass muster in the U.S.
 Senate or other NATO parliaments. Fortunately, I believe we can already
 say that the MAP is working: we can be reasonably confident that at least
 a few aspirants could be credible contenders in Prague as long as they
 keep their shoulders to the wheel.
</FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="CENTER"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" SIZE="3" FACE="Palatino">
<B>CONCLUDING REMARKS</B>
</FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" SIZE="2" FACE="Palatino">
The enlargement debate, when it comes, will pose many vexing questions,
 beyond the question of to whom we should issue invitations. We will also
 ask: How should we manage the disappointment of countries not issued invitations?
 How should we rebut charges of a Russian veto if we take none of the Baltic
 States? How should we cushion the blow to Russia if we take one or more
 of the Baltics? A broad discussion will be needed on what the next round
 of enlargement will mean regarding strategy and capabilities for extending
 Article 5 commitments and for the Alliance&#146;s day-to-day methods of doing
 business. For example, our most important weekly forum, the PermReps lunch,
 will run up against the fact that most Ambassadors&#146; tables can&#146;t seat more
 than 20 PermReps! One downside of the last expansion is that our North
 Atlantic Council meetings usually run an hour longer because of the extra
 voices in the debate, but this is a small price to pay, to be sure, for
 the privilege of living in beautiful Brussels. Perhaps we&#146;ll have to introduce
 the seventh-inning stretch to NATO. <FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" FACE="Times New Roman" SIZE="2"></FONT>
</FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" SIZE="2" FACE="Palatino">
In the end, I think all practical concerns about NATO enlargement can be
 easily addressed. Decisions in Prague will hinge on the more fundamental
 questions that guided NATO&#146;s founding fathers in 1949, and which have guided
 our leaders during and after the Cold War.
</FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17" SIZE="2" FACE="Palatino">
In 1991, in Skenderbeg Square in downtown Tirana, Albania, Secretary of
 State James Baker told the crowd: &#147;Freedom works.&#148; He was right. But for
 it to work, Allies who have sacrificed for decades to enjoy freedom&#146;s benefits
 need to stand with other nations that not only honor and respect those
 sacrifices, but are ready to make their own as part of our great North
 Atlantic Alliance. Like them, we must neither forget our history nor the
 principles that have given it meaning. We need to be true to the words
 of the Washington Treaty, which established the open door. Otherwise, all
 that we have achieved in collective security over a half-century will be
 diminished. As we have for over 50 years, I am confident that we and our
 Allies will not shrink from our responsibility to extend the Alliance&#146;s
 original vision across the entire North Atlantic area.
</FONT></P>
<P>

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