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<title>Center for Strategic Decision Research, Peter Struck, Michele Alliot-Marie, General George Joulwan, SACEUR, General James L. Jones, SHAPE, NATO, EU, BDLI, ILA, EADS, Northrop Grumman, Under Secretary Michael Wynne, Assistant Secretary Linton Wells, Ambassador William Burns, NATO Military Committee Chairman General Harald Kujat, General Dynamics, Boeing, Global Security Terrorism, Iraq, Afghanistan, Rainer Hertrich, David Stafford</title>
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<td width="66" height="68"><p><img src="../2004book/logo-kevin-web.jpg" width="60" height="66"></p> </td>
<td width="618"><div align="center"><span class="style5">17th International Workshop on Global Security - Berlin, 2-5 June 2000<br>
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<p align="center" class="style17"><strong>Table of Contents:</strong></p>
<p class="style18"><a href="/2000Book/weissingerbaylon.htm">Workshop Chairman Roger Weissinger-Baylon </a><span class="style217"><strong><a href="/2000Book/diepgen.htm">Berlin Mayor Eberhard Diepgen </a></strong></span><span class="style217"><strong><a href="/2000Book/moede.htm">German Armed Forces Lt Gen Hartmut Moede </a></strong></span></p>
<p align="center" class="style18"><strong>Part 1</strong></p>
<p align="left" class="style18"><span class="style217"><strong><a href="/2000Book/scharping.htm">German Defense Minister Rudolf Scharping</a></strong></span><span class="style217"><a href="/2000Book/adamkus.htm">Lithuanian President Valdas Adamkus </a><a href="/2000Book/balanzino.htm">NATO Dep Secretary Genereral Sergio Balanzino </a><a href="/2000Book/venturoni.htm">NATO Military Committee Chair Adm Guido Venturoni </a></span></p>
<p align="center" class="style18"><strong>Part 2</strong></p>
<p align="left" class="style18"><span class="style217"><a href="/2000Book/haekkerup.htm">Danish Defense Minister Hans Haekkerup </a><a href="/2000Book/mattarella.htm">Italian Defense Minister Sergio Mattarella</a></span><span class="style217"><a href="/2000Book/tsohatzopoulos.htm">Greek Defense Minister Apostolos Tsohatzopoulos</a></span><span class="style217"><a href="/2000Book/tarasyuk.htm">Ukranian Foreign Minister Borys Tarasyuk </a><a href="/2000Book/stutzle.htm">German State Secretary Walther Stutzle </a><a href="/2000Book/wolsytnski.htm">French Vice Chief of Defense Staff Lt Gen Richard Wolsztynski </a><span class="style222"><a href="/2000Book/lanxade.htm">Fmr French Ambassador to Tunisia Adm Jacques Lanxade</a><a href="/2000Book/kislyak.htm">Russian Ambassador to NATO Sergei Ivanovich Kislyak </a></span></span></p>
<p align="center" class="style18"><strong>Part 3</strong></p>
<p align="left" class="style18"><span class="style217"><span class="style222"><a href="/2000Book/ralston.htm">SACEUR Gen Joseph Ralston </a> <a href="/2000Book/smith.htm">DSACEUR Gen Rupert Smith </a></span></span><span class="style219"><a href="/2000Book/ellis.htm">CINCSOUTH Adm James Ellis</a><a href="/2000Book/spiering.htm">CINCNORTH Gen Joachim Spiering </a></span></p>
<p align="center" class="style18"><strong>Part 4</strong></p>
<p align="left" class="style18"><span class="style219"><a href="/2000Book/deleon.htm">US Dep Secretary of Defense Rudy de Leon </a><a href="/2000Book/oliver.htm">US Principal Dep Under Secretary of Defense David Oliver </a><a href="/2000Book/martin.htm">BMDO Dep for Strat Relations David Martin</a><a href="/2000Book/vershbow.htm">US Ambassador to NATO Alexander Vershbow </a></span></p>
<p align="center" class="style18"><strong>Part 5</strong></p>
<p class="style18"><span class="style219"><a href="/2000Book/weston.htm">BAE Systems Chief Executive John Weston </a> <a href="/2000Book/hertrich.htm">EADS Co-CEO Rainer Hertrich </a><a href="/2000Book/crosby.htm">Northrop Grumman President Ralph Crosby </a></span><span class="style209"><span class="style197"><a href="/2000Book/enders.htm">EADS Exec Vice President Thomas Enders </a></span><span #invalid_attr_id="10px 0px 0px 10px"><span class="style197"><a href="/2000Book/lawler.htm">Boeing Vice President William Lawler </a></span></span></span><span class="style219"><a href="/2000Book/zappa.htm">Alenia President Giorgio Zappa</a><a href="/2000Book/trice.htm">Lockheed Martin Sr Vice President Robert Trice </a></span></p>
<p align="center" class="style18"><strong>Part 6</strong></p>
<p class="style18"><span class="style219"><a href="/2000Book/kukan.htm">Slovakian Foreign Minister Eduard Kukan </a><a href="/2000Book/hajdaraga.htm">Albanian Defense Minister Luan Hajdaraga </a></span><span class="style219"><a href="/2000Book/dimitrov.htm">FYROM Foreign Minister Aleksandar Dimitrov </a></span><span class="style217"><a href="/2000Book/naumann.htm">Fmr NATO Military Committee Chair Gen Klaus Naumann</a></span><br>
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<h1 align="center" class="style196 style26 style27 style28">Challenges Facing European Security</h1>
<p align="center" class="style23">Admiral James O. Ellis, Jr.<br>
CINC, Allied Forces Southern Europe</p>
<P ALIGN="LEFT"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17"><span class="style24"><span class="style8"><FONT COLOR="#000000">I</FONT> would like to address, from the southern region’s perspective, four major aspects of the challenges to European security: </span></span></FONT><span class="style24"><span class="style8"><span class="style27"><em><strong>responsibilities</strong></em></span></span></span><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17"><span class="style24"><span class="style8"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17">, </FONT></span></span></FONT><span class="style24"><span class="style8"><span class="style27"><em><strong>resources</strong></em></span></span></span><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17"><span class="style24"><span class="style8"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17">, </FONT></span></span></FONT><span class="style24"><span class="style8"><span class="style27"><em><strong>relationships</strong></em></span></span></span><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17"><span class="style24"><span class="style8"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17">, and </FONT></span></span></FONT><span class="style24"><span class="style8"><span class="style27"><em><strong>adaptation</strong></em></span></span></span><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17"><span class="style24"><span class="style8"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17">. Perhaps the first thing we should recognize is that the Alliance has the responsibility and has demonstrated the ability to critically examine itself. The Defense Capabilities Initiative, the 1999 peacetime establishment, and the ongoing Kosovo Lessons Learned process are clear examples that we can and must continue to transform ourselves.</FONT> </span></span></FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT" class="style24 style8"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17"> I am confident that there is no lack of will among either the political or the military leaders in NATO to move our organization in the direction that will best serve the security needs of the next 50 years. And there appears to be no question that those security needs are likely to be far different from those of the last 50 years, and will require a more flexible and responsive Alliance. </FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="CENTER" class="style8 style26 style27"> <B>THINKING OF KOSOVO IN THE LONG TERM</B></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT" class="style24 style8"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17"> With respect to the </FONT><span class="style24 style27"><strong><I>responsibilities</I></strong></span><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17"> of the southern region, the Balkans clearly and necessarily occupy much of our thinking and planning. But I also hasten to add that we need to transition away from thinking of Kosovo and indeed the Balkans as a crisis, as a short-term situation requiring emergency funding, temporary personnel supplementation, and the like. It is reasonable to assume that Kosovo is a long-term challenge, and a problem that will certainly require some adjustments in the other three areas I mentioned: resources, relationships, and adaptation. </FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT" class="style24 style8"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17"> But perhaps we should not even be referring to a “problem” at all. Former United States Secretary of Defense James Schlesinger once said, “If a problem has no immediate solution, it is no longer a problem—it is a fact.” It is hardly defeatist to acknowledge Balkan realities and to imagine that we will be talking about ethnic conflict in the Balkans over the next decade as often as we have over the last. </FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT" class="style24 style8"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17"> That being the case, if NATO involvement in the Balkans is now a chronic, if not long-term, condition, then NATO must adapt itself to best deal with that reality on a sustaining level. There are many other Alliance-wide and southern regional challenges out there from which we must not allow events in Kosovo to distract us. There are engagement opportunities in our Area of Interest, even beyond our Area of Responsibility, which it would be unwise to overlook. The most significant of these exist among the nations of the Black Sea area, the Caucasus, and those seven nations that are a part of the Mediterranean Dialogue. </FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT" class="style24 style8"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17"> Although engagement has been the watchword of our efforts for a number of years now, I believe that we are currently seeing only the tip of the iceberg regarding what can be achieved on this front, and real opportunities await us, particularly in the southern region. An example is the unquestioned success of the Partnership for Peace (PFP) program, which has now generated the requirement for an enhanced program of increased scope, designed to meet rising member expectations. </FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="CENTER" class="style8 style26 style27"> <B>THE NEED TO INCREASE RESOURCES</B></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT" class="style24 style8"> <span class="style29">Resource</span><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17"> constraints are a reality with which we all must deal. As just mentioned, if the Alliance’s effort currently reflects a long-term, clearly NOT temporary, condition in the Balkans, then it is essential that we periodically reassess resource allocation to ensure that it realistically reflects current and future conditions. </FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT" class="style24 style8"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17"> Furthermore, the engagement opportunities I mentioned are real, and expanding. We will need to increase resources to support those efforts if “engagement” is to be more rigorous and responsive, and if it is to signify that NATO looks at European security in a broader context. </FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT" class="style24 style8"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17"> There has been much agreement in recent years by all levels of Alliance leadership on the shift in NATO’s focus toward the southern region. One could argue that the resources must now follow the rhetoric if we are to deal efficiently and effectively with the proliferation of many real responsibilities. </FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT" class="style24 style8"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17"> Peacetime Establishment (PE) manpower levels, for example, can have a snowball effect when you look at the support for Crisis Establishment (CE) manning levels that we are seeing. The PE that was crafted five years ago was not designed to support the CE requirements we see today or the regional responsibilities of the immediate future. Our swelling personnel augmentation requirements dramatically bear this out. It is a significant problem, underlying all we do, and it is simply not sustainable given the current and foreseeable conditions. </FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="CENTER" class="style8 style26 style27"> <B>REGIONAL RELATIONSHIPS</B></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT" class="style24 style8"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17"> My third point concerns </FONT><span class="style27"><strong><I>relationships</I></strong></span><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17">. If the Balkan challenge is to be met optimally, then we must draw on regional expertise and capitalize on the relationships that have developed among national contingents within the region in the newly expanded and engaged Alliance. The key point is that the relationships within the Alliance should be adapted to best fit a sustainable, long-term effort, whether it be in the Balkans or regarding other challenges and opportunities facing NATO. A regional approach would also allow us to interface logically with the efforts of the EU and the OSCE with respect to Southeastern Europe policy. Regional rebuilding and stabilization should logically include a regional security element. We have seen what can happen when it is included, and we have seen what happens when it is absent. </FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="CENTER" class="style8 style26 style27"> <B>RECONFIGURING THE ALLIANCE</B></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT" class="style24 style8"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17"> My fourth point is a function of the first three: </FONT><span class="style27 style24"><strong><I>adaptation</I></strong></span><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17">. We must, as a matter of routine, continue our honest assessment of whether the Alliance is configured properly to meet the military challenges of the present and the immediate future. </FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT" class="style24 style8"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17"> If we are not satisfied with the configuration, we must match our priorities with resources, our planning and decision processes with our strategy, and our structures with our operational tasks. We cannot allow ourselves to be put off balance by every changing current or crisis, but neither can we ignore irrefutable mid- to long-term change or challenge. It is a strength, not a weakness, to acknowledge that the structure and processes of the Alliance that so successfully met the challenges of the last 50 years may not be precisely what is needed to match the critical needs of the next 50 years. </FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT" class="style24 style8"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17"> We need to tailor the lessons learned regarding NATO’s seminal experience in Kosovo, the accession of three new members, our relationship with Russia, and our Mediterranean Dialogue initiative to meet the new demands on a constantly changing Alliance. Does our strategic perspective reflect our evolving Alliance, including the unique regional needs? What is the impact on the Alliance given the new reality of non-Article 5 operations, which now increasingly dominate our planning for the challenges we are likely to face over the next ten years? </FONT></P>
<P ALIGN="CENTER" class="style8 style27 style26"> <B>CONCLUDING REMARKS</B></P>
<P ALIGN="LEFT" class="style24 style8"><FONT COLOR="#1f1a17"> Our Alliance was founded on principles that have changed little in 50 years, and quite simply by their nature remain irrefutably constant. But as you have heard at this Workshop, our military approach to the operational support of these principles, guided by SACEUR’s priorities and the political direction of our overarching strategy, must be flexible enough to selectively focus our military support across a wide range of political and security goals, disparate both in geography and in scope. </FONT></P>
<p class="style24 style8"> </p>
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