KGRKJGETMRETU895U-589TY5MIGM5JGB5SDFESFREWTGR54TY
Server : Apache/2.4.62
System : FreeBSD fbsdweb2.web.rcn.net 14.1-RELEASE FreeBSD 14.1-RELEASE releng/14.1-n267679-10e31f0946d8 GENERIC amd64
User : www ( 80)
PHP Version : 8.3.8
Disable Function : NONE
Directory :  /domains/enrgy/articles/

Upload File :
current_dir [ Writeable ] document_root [ Writeable ]

 

Current File : /domains/enrgy/articles/ren_nuq_pow.htm
<html xmlns:v="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:vml" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40">

<head>

<title>The Upcoming Renaissance of Nuclear Power </title>
<style>
<!--
span.MsoEndnoteReference
	{vertical-align:super}
-->
</style>
</head>

<body style="font-family: Arial" vlink="#808080">
<div align="center"><center>

<table border="0" cellpadding="8" cellspacing="0" width="98%" bgcolor="#000000">
  <tr>
    <td width="100%" valign="middle"><a name="top"></a>
    <img src="../images/pmamagsm.gif" alt="PMA Online Magazine" border="0" align="right" width="229" height="100"></td>
  </tr>
</table>
</center></div><div align="center"><center>

<table border="0" cellpadding="8" width="98%">
  <tr>
    <td width="25%" valign="top" align="center"><map name="FPMap0">
      <area href="http://www.powermarketers.com/adrates.html" shape="rect" coords="14, 297, 97, 322">
      <area href="http://www.powermarketers.com/pmajobs.htm" shape="rect" coords="11, 230, 95, 257">
      <area href="http://www.powermarketers.com/main.htm" target="_parent" shape="rect" coords="12, 163, 96, 189">
      <area href="http://www.powermarketers.com/power2.htm" target="_blank" shape="rect" coords="12, 95, 96, 121">
      <area href="../pmamag.htm" shape="rect" coords="11, 29, 96, 54"></map>
    <img rectangle="(12,163) (96,189) http://www.powermarketers.com/main.htm##_parent" rectangle="(12,95) (96,121) http://www.powermarketers.com/power2.htm##_blank" rectangle="(11,29) (96,54) ../pmamag.htm" src="../images/magmenu.gif" alt="PMA OnLine Magazine Menu" border="0" align="center" usemap="#FPMap0" width="110" height="350"><p><a href="../searchpma.htm">
    <img src="../images/archives.gif" alt="Archives Search" border="0" align="center" width="70" height="40"></a></p>
    <p>&nbsp;</p>
    <p>&nbsp;</p>
    <p>&nbsp;</p>
    <p>&nbsp;</p>
    <p>&nbsp;</p>
    <p>&nbsp;</p>
    <p>&nbsp;</p>
    <p>&nbsp;</p>
    <p>&nbsp;</p>
    <p>&nbsp;</p>
    <p>&nbsp;</p>
    <p>&nbsp;</p>
    <p>&nbsp;</p>
    <p>&nbsp;</p>
    <p>&nbsp;</p>
    <p>&nbsp;</p>
    <p>&nbsp;</p>
    <p>&nbsp;</p>
    <p>&nbsp;</p>
    <p>&nbsp;</p>
    <p>&nbsp;</p>
    <p>&nbsp;</p>
    <p>&nbsp;</p>
    <p>&nbsp;</p>
    <p><a href="#top">
    <img src="../images/b-t-top.gif" alt="Back To Top" border="0" width="71" height="35"></a></td>
    <td width="75%" valign="top">
      <p class="MsoNormal" align="center">
      <span style="text-transform: uppercase"><font size="6"><b>The upcoming 
      renaissance of nuclear Power<br>
      </b></font></span><strong><font size="4">Nuclear Power Is On The Verge Of 
      An Extraordinary Expansion</font></strong></p>
      <p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p>
      <p class="MsoNormal"><font size="2" face="Arial">
      <strong style="font-weight: 400">By<b> </b></strong>John O. Sillin</font><span style="color: black"><font size="2"><br>
      </font></span><font size="2">(<em>originally published by PMA OnLine Magazine: 04/01</em>)</font></p>
      <p>Thought impossible only a few years ago by most energy<br>
      industry managers, regulators, and public policymakers,<br>
      commercial nuclear energy had been written off as hope-lessly<br>
      uneconomic, too technically complex to operate<br>
      efficiently, and financially risky. But without much publicity, nuclear 
      power has been resurrected from the cemetery of<br>
      dead and dying industries, and it has helped prevent a com-plete<br>
      financial collapse of the electric power industry.<br>
      <br>
      For example, U.S. nuclear power plant energy production<br>
      reached an all-time high for the fifth year in a row in 2002 (see<br>
      Figure 1, p. 21).<sup>1</sup><br>
      Also, nuclear power plant production rates<br>
      (capacity factors) reached an all-time high in 2002. This rate<br>
      now exceeds 90 percent, significantly higher than any other<br>
      type of power plant in operation. The high capacity factor for<br>
      nuclear plants is a reflection of nuclear power�s low operating<br>
      costs, and the ability of power plant managers to operate these<br>
      plants efficiently and safely. Second, nuclear power plants have<br>
&nbsp;<p>The Longer-Term Outlook�<br>
      Environmental Benefits<br>
      One of nuclear energy�s primary environ-mental<br>
      (and economic) advantages is its<br>
      energy density. The heat value of uranium<br>
      used in a light water reactor is 500,000 mega-joules<br>
      per kilogram. For high-Btu content<br>
      coal, the value is 30 megajoules per kilogram.<br>
      Residual oil is about 50 megajoules per kilo-gram;<br>
      natural gas comes in at 40 megajoules.<br>
      For wood (biomass), the heat content is on<br>
      average 16 megajoules per kilogram.<br>
      4<br>
      The extraordinary heat content of ura-nium<br>
      translates into significant environmen-tal<br>
      and economic benefits. For example, a<br>
      1,000-MW power station will consume more<br>
      than 3 million tons of coal each year. If it is a<br>
      nuclear power plant, the physical resource<br>
      requirements are 24 tons of UO2 enriched to<br>
      about 4 percent U235. This in turn requires<br>
      200 tons of natural uranium processed from<br>
      25,000 to 100,000 tons of uranium ore.<br>
      5<br>
      Even at the high end of 100,000 tons, this<br>
      translates into a resource extraction ratio of<br>
      30 to 1 in favor of uranium. Similar statisti-cal<br>
      ratios can be generated comparing ura-nium<br>
      with oil, natural gas, and biomass.<br>
      In truth, the ratio is much higher in ura-nium�s<br>
      favor. Much uranium and nuclear fuel<br>
      comes from secondary sources, including<br>
      other mineral mining operations and mate-rial<br>
      from dismantled Russian nuclear warheads. Also, most of<br>
      the uranium ore mined today comes from rich mines in<br>
      Canada and Australia. Uranium is a relatively abundant ele-ment,<br>
      with only one commercially practical application: gen-erating<br>
      electric power. Fossil fuels, possibly excepting coal, can<br>
      have multiple applications that in part explain their higher<br>
      price on a Btu basis, i.e., they have a larger potential market.<br>
      Fuel density also results in a smaller footprint for nuclear<br>
      power plants and supporting facilities. Nuclear power plant<br>
      sites can be more compact than similar-sized fossil stations.<br>
      Also the transportation and supporting facilities to supply<br>
      fuel are much smaller for nuclear power plants; large con-necting<br>
      rail, barge, and pipeline facilities are not necessary,<br>
      and neither are fuel storage yards or tanks. The reduced need<br>
      for supporting facilities also increases the flexibility to site<br>
      nuclear power plants, including at more isolated and secure<br>
      locations. By contrast, renewable energy facilities such as<br>
      windmills and solar power plants require enormous chunks<br>
      of real estate�an inevitable result of their being extremely<br>
      energy diffuse.<br>
      While much is made of nuclear waste, it is small and man-ageable<br>
      compared to other fuel forms. The 24 tons of UO2 after<br>
      it is irradiated is extracted and stored, and ultimately will be<br>
      encased in a repository. If processed, the amount of material<br>
      that would go to the repository would be less than 700 kilo-grams,<br>
      a small fraction. A coal-fired power plant would pro-duce<br>
      about 7 million tons of CO2 each year, as much as 200,000<br>
      tons of SO2 and other emissions such as NOx, and mercury.<br>
      6<br>
      While oil- and natural gas-fired power plants produce less emis-sions<br>
      than coal plants, they are nevertheless significant.<br>
      Air emissions bring up the subject of global warming.<br>
      Nuclear power plants are emission free. In 2001 nuclear power<br>
      plants were the source of more than 76 percent of all emis-sion-<br>
      free generation in the United States. Hydro accounted<br>
      for 21.6 percent. Combined geothermal, solar, and wind<br>
      accounted for 2 percent of emission-free generation.<br>
      7<br>
      Cur-JUNE<br>
      become economically attractive assets. Significant nuclear con-solidation<br>
      has occurred through the formation of nuclear gen-erating<br>
      companies and nuclear operating companies (see<br>
      sidebar on p. 22).<br>
      Also, several operating companies have been formed to<br>
      manage nuclear reactor fleets. They include Southern Nuclear<br>
      Operating Co. (six reactors at three sites owned by Southern<br>
      Co. affiliates), and Nuclear Management Co. (nine reactors at<br>
      six sites owned by five different utilities).<br>
      As nuclear ownership consolidation and asset transfers<br>
      have occurred, the value of the transactions has increased.<br>
      The earliest nuclear power plant asset transfers occurred at a<br>
      price of as little as $20 to $30 per kilowatt. The latest trans-fers<br>
      (for which information is available) indicate acquisition<br>
      prices of as much as $660 per kilowatt. Also, the earliest asset<br>
      transfers involved a single buyer. The most recent nuclear<br>
      power plant sales involved competitive bids. The obvious<br>
      trend is that nuclear assets are appreciating in value, and the<br>
      financial, technical, and regulatory risks associated with own-ership<br>
      are declining�the opposite of almost all other gener-ation<br>
      forms.<br>
      The Near-Term Outlook<br>
      The outlook for nuclear power is upbeat, showing every sign<br>
      of improvement. First, the nuclear industry is gaining regula-tory<br>
      approval for extending the operating licenses of existing<br>
      reactors. Originally these reactors were licensed to operate for<br>
      40 years, but after extensive safety analysis, testing, and struc-tural<br>
      analysis, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is,<br>
      on a case-by-case basis, allowing the plants to operate for<br>
      another 20 years. To date, 10 reactors have received 20-year<br>
      operating license extensions. Also, 20 reactors have filed for<br>
      the same operating license extensions, and another 20 reactors<br>
      are expected to file for operating license extensions during the<br>
      next six years. A growing consensus is that the entire fleet of<br>
      existing reactors will be relicensed.<br>
      Contrast this with the situation 10 years ago, when the first<br>
      plant to proceed with relicensing, Yankee Rowe, was closed<br>
      along with several other plants in the United States. The con-sensus<br>
      was that the existing fleet of nuclear reactors would not<br>
      operate their allowed 40 years, and by 2020, nuclear power<br>
      would be no more than a failed industrial artifact.<br>
      Now, not only are nuclear plants operating lives being<br>
      extended, their capacity ratings are being increased. Sophisti-cated<br>
      analyses by plant owners and the NRC have demon-strated<br>
      that large safety margins were incorporated into plant<br>
      designs. Combined with improved instrumentation, new fuel<br>
      designs, and other plant improvements, the NRC is allowing<br>
      some nuclear plants to operate at higher power levels than<br>
      those at which they were originally licensed.<br>
      Currently there are nearly 98,000 MW of nuclear generat-ing<br>
      capacity operating in the United States. Former NRC<br>
      Chairman Richard A. Meserve, in recent remarks to the Amer-ican<br>
      Nuclear Society, said that during the last 30 years the<br>
      NRC has approved 80 up-rates that added nearly 4,000 MW<br>
      of generating capacity. Prospective power up-rates, when com-bined,<br>
      may result in the effective addition of seven new nuclear<br>
      power plants, amounting to nearly 7,000 MW. A recently<br>
      completed analysis done for the Energy Information Admin-istration<br>
      (EIA) documented 1,060 MW of power up-rate<br>
      applications before the NRC and 5,730 MW of additional<br>
      up-rates likely to be submitted within the next seven years.<sup>2</sup><br>
      The National Energy Policy prepared under the direction of<br>
      Vice President Dick Cheney estimates the nuclear up-rate<br>
      potential at 12,000 MW.<sup>3</sup><br>
      In addition, nuclear reactors with operations or construc-tion<br>
      that were terminated are now being investigated to deter-mine<br>
      whether they should be repaired, completed, and<br>
      restarted. The Tennessee Valley Authority, for example, is ana-lyzing<br>
      the benefits and costs of repairing and restarting Browns<br>
      Ferry 1. Other partially constructed power plants that may be<br>
      evaluated to determine whether it is technically practical and<br>
      cost-effective to complete them include Watts Bar 2 in Ten-nessee,<br>
      Atlantic Energy (Seabrook) 2 in New Hampshire, and<br>
      Washington Public Power System 1.<br>
      Preliminary steps have been taken that may result in the<br>
      construction of new nuclear reactors. The NRC has certified<br>
      several new nuclear reactor designs, obviating the need for<br>
      review of any technical issues about those designs that were<br>
      resolved during the certification process. The NRC has certi-fied<br>
      three designs: General Electric�s Advanced Boiling Water<br>
      Reactor, Combustion Engineering�s System 80+, and the<br>
      Westinghouse AP600. A fourth design, Westinghouse�s<br>
      AP100, is currently being reviewed, and the NRC is engaged<br>
      in pre-certification discussions with vendors representing five<br>
      other designs, including gas reactor designs.<br>
      The NRC also is proceeding with early site permitting, or<br>
      advanced approval of a potential site for a nuclear power plant,<br>
      which may then be banked for future use. Issues resolved in the<br>
      early site permit review are not reviewed again in the combined<br>
      license process. The combined license process folds into one<br>
      proceeding two separate reviews�construction permit and<br>
      operating license�required of currently operating plants. Once<br>
      the license is issued the plant may be constructed and proceed<br>
      to operation after the NRC determines the as-built plant con-forms<br>
      to the approved license. These changes have reduced<br>
      uncertainty and will result in regulatory decisions as early in<br>
      the process as practical.<p>The Longer-Term Outlook�<br>
      Environmental Benefits<br>
      One of nuclear energy�s primary environ-mental<br>
      (and economic) advantages is its<br>
      energy density. The heat value of uranium<br>
      used in a light water reactor is 500,000 mega-joules<br>
      per kilogram. For high-Btu content<br>
      coal, the value is 30 megajoules per kilogram.<br>
      Residual oil is about 50 megajoules per kilo-gram;<br>
      natural gas comes in at 40 megajoules.<br>
      For wood (biomass), the heat content is on<br>
      average 16 megajoules per kilogram.<sup>4</sup><br>
      The extraordinary heat content of ura-nium<br>
      translates into significant environmen-tal<br>
      and economic benefits. For example, a<br>
      1,000-MW power station will consume more<br>
      than 3 million tons of coal each year. If it is a<br>
      nuclear power plant, the physical resource<br>
      requirements are 24 tons of UO2 enriched to<br>
      about 4 percent U235. This in turn requires<br>
      200 tons of natural uranium processed from<br>
      25,000 to 100,000 tons of uranium ore.<sup>5</sup><br>
      Even at the high end of 100,000 tons, this<br>
      translates into a resource extraction ratio of<br>
      30 to 1 in favor of uranium. Similar statisti-cal<br>
      ratios can be generated comparing ura-nium<br>
      with oil, natural gas, and biomass.<br>
      In truth, the ratio is much higher in ura-nium�s<br>
      favor. Much uranium and nuclear fuel<br>
      comes from secondary sources, including<br>
      other mineral mining operations and mate-rial<br>
      from dismantled Russian nuclear warheads. Also, most of<br>
      the uranium ore mined today comes from rich mines in<br>
      Canada and Australia. Uranium is a relatively abundant ele-ment,<br>
      with only one commercially practical application: gen-erating<br>
      electric power. Fossil fuels, possibly excepting coal, can<br>
      have multiple applications that in part explain their higher<br>
      price on a Btu basis, i.e., they have a larger potential market.<br>
      Fuel density also results in a smaller footprint for nuclear<br>
      power plants and supporting facilities. Nuclear power plant<br>
      sites can be more compact than similar-sized fossil stations.<br>
      Also the transportation and supporting facilities to supply<br>
      fuel are much smaller for nuclear power plants; large con-necting<br>
      rail, barge, and pipeline facilities are not necessary,<br>
      and neither are fuel storage yards or tanks. The reduced need<br>
      for supporting facilities also increases the flexibility to site<br>
      nuclear power plants, including at more isolated and secure<br>
      locations. By contrast, renewable energy facilities such as<br>
      windmills and solar power plants require enormous chunks<br>
      of real estate�an inevitable result of their being extremely<br>
      energy diffuse.<br>
      While much is made of nuclear waste, it is small and man-ageable<br>
      compared to other fuel forms. The 24 tons of UO2 after<br>
      it is irradiated is extracted and stored, and ultimately will be<br>
      encased in a repository. If processed, the amount of material<br>
      that would go to the repository would be less than 700 kilo-grams,<br>
      a small fraction. A coal-fired power plant would pro-duce<br>
      about 7 million tons of CO2 each year, as much as 200,000<br>
      tons of SO2 and other emissions such as NOx, and mercury.<sup>6</sup><br>
      While oil- and natural gas-fired power plants produce less emis-sions<br>
      than coal plants, they are nevertheless significant.<br>
      Air emissions bring up the subject of global warming.<br>
      Nuclear power plants are emission free. In 2001 nuclear power<br>
      plants were the source of more than 76 percent of all emis-sion-<br>
      free generation in the United States. Hydro accounted<br>
      for 21.6 percent. Combined geothermal, solar, and wind<br>
      accounted for 2 percent of emission-free generation.<sup>7</sup>&nbsp; 
      Currently, U.S. nuclear power<br>
      plants annually avoid the<br>
      release of 5.1 million tons of<br>
      SO2, 2.4 million tons of NOx,<br>
      and 164 million tons of carbon<br>
      to the atmosphere. From 1973<br>
      to 2000, emissions avoided by<br>
      nuclear energy totaled 66 mil-lion<br>
      tons of SO2, 34 million<br>
      tons of NOx, and 3 billion tons<br>
      of carbon.<br>
      8<br>
      While all of the above is<br>
      generally well known, only<br>
      now is it beginning to affect<br>
      power plant investment deci-sions.<br>
      For example, the U.S.<br>
      Environmental Protection<br>
      Agency (EPA) has only recently<br>
      reversed its position on New<br>
      Source Review. But this deci-sion<br>
      holds little comfort for<br>
      investors; if the EPA can reverse<br>
      itself once on this subject, then<br>
      at some future date it may reverse itself again.<br>
      Another uncertainty is whether older and new coal-fired<br>
      power plants can stay within the emission caps established in<br>
      the 1992 Clean Air Act. Absolute limits were placed on SO2<br>
      and NOx emissions, but as electricity demand and produc-tion<br>
      grow, there will come a point where production from fos-sil<br>
      power plants can�t be increased without exceeding mandated<br>
      caps. Also, several Northeast states are suing large coal burn-ing<br>
      utilities in the Southeast and Midwest on the grounds that<br>
      they are the cause of acid rain, haze, and other degradations in<br>
      air quality.<br>
      Irrespective of whether the cases have merit, these and other<br>
      events (including the controversy surrounding the United<br>
      States� refusal to adopt the Kyoto Protocol on global warm-ing)<br>
      have introduced significant uncertainty into fossil-fueled<br>
      power plant investments, particularly coal. The result: Very<br>
      few large coal-fired power plants are either under construction<br>
      or planned. There is growing concern that new plants will not<br>
      be allowed to operate at anything close to capacity for their<br>
      planned operating life.<br>
      Relative Economic Profile of Nuclear Energy<br>
      Generating plant economics are also trending in nuclear<br>
      energy�s favor. Nuclear power plants at present have signifi-cantly<br>
      lower operating costs than coal, natural gas, or oil<br>
      plants. Nuclear power plant production costs have declined<br>
      from a peak of 3.4 cents per kilowatt-hour in 1987 to 1.76<br>
      cents in 2000. This compares with 1.79 cents per kilowatt-hour<br>
      for coal-fired power plants, 5.28 cents per kilowatt-hour<br>
      for oil-fired capacity, and 5.69 cents for natural gas-fired<br>
      capacity.<br>
      9<br>
      Nuclear power plant capacity factors continued to increase<br>
      in 2001 and 2002�a strong indicator that production cost<br>
      declined further. Future power up-rates are likely to further<br>
      reduce nuclear per-unit production costs as increased output<br>
      is realized from existing facilities. Stable or declining operat-ing<br>
      costs are assuredly not the case for coal, natural gas, and<br>
      oil-fired power plants.<br>
      For coal power plants, operating costs are subject to<br>
      increases as complying with current emission limits becomes<br>
      more expensive. In addition, regulatory ratcheting on air emis-sions<br>
      may continue. For example, the EPA just recently<br>
      released a report warning that emissions of mercury by coal-fired<br>
      power plants (and other industrial sources) pose an<br>
      increasing health danger to young children. Also, on Feb. 20,<br>
      2003, six Northeast states and the state of Washington<br>
      announced plans to sue the federal government to force the<br>
      regulation of CO2 from power plants. The states claim that<br>
      the EPA hasn�t updated an analysis of air pollutants from power<br>
      plants in at least 20 years. What is clear is that the consequences<br>
      of legislative or regulatory actions will be to further increase<br>
      coal power plant operating costs.<br>
      10<p>Also, oil and natural gas prices have increased significantly<br>
      in each of the past two years. Average natural gas prices to<br>
      utilities increased from under $2/Mcf in 1995 to more than<br>
      $4 in 2000. Prices rose to nearly $4.50 in 2001. At the end of<br>
      2002 natural gas prices to utilities were at $4.60/Mcf and in<br>
      January of this year rose to more than $5/Mcf. The EIA in its<br>
      short-term projections shows continued high prices for natu-ral<br>
      gas. There are also predictions by industry that high natu-ral<br>
      gas prices are here to stay. Reasons for this include refilling<br>
      storage sites from their abnormally low levels and low domes-tic<br>
      production. Large industrial consumers have found it dif-ficult<br>
      to switch to less expensive alternatives, due in part to<br>
      the worker strike in Venezuela and the unstable conditions in<br>
      the Middle East.<br>
      The Longer Term Outlook�Need for Power<br>
      Electricity demand has and will continue to increase as the<br>
      national economy expands. The strong relation between eco-nomic<br>
      and electricity demand has moderated in recent years<br>
      but has nevertheless continued. Also, while modernization<br>
      will no doubt bring about increases in energy usage efficiency,<br>
      it will also continue the longer-term trend toward electrifica-tion,<br>
      particularly of stationary applications.<br>
      The National Energy Policy, published in May 2001, and<br>
      prepared by the National Energy Policy Development Group<br>
      stated at the outset in its section on electricity:<br>
      �Electricity demand is projected to grow sharply over<br>
      the next twenty years. Based on current estimates, the<br>
      United States will need about 393,000 MW of new gen-erating<br>
      capacity by 2020 to meet the growing demand.<br>
      If the U.S. electricity demand continues to grow at the<br>
      high rate it has recently, we will need even more gener-ating<br>
      capacity. To meet that future demand, the United<br>
      States will have to build between 1,300 and 1,900 new<br>
      power plants; that averages to more than 60 to 90 plants<br>
      a year, or more than one a week.�<br>
      Furthermore, the EIA projects in its Annual Energy Out-look<br>
      2002 that by 2020 electricity consumption will increase<br>
      by over 40 percent, increasing at a rate of 1.8 percent per year.<br>
      This growth will result in the need for 355,000 MW of new<br>
      generating capacity.<br>
      The electric industry also is projecting significant electric<br>
      demand growth and need for new capacity. In its Reliability<br>
      Assessment 2002-2011, the North American Electric Reliabil-ity<br>
      Council (NERC) projects significant new generating capac-ity<br>
      requirements. NERC electricity demand projection over<br>
      the next 10 years is an annual average increase of 2 percent.<br>
      NERC and the EIA in their most recent Annual Energy<br>
      Outlook project that upward of 75 percent of all new electric generating 
      capacity will be natural gas-fired. With natural gas<br>
      futures hovering at $6/Mcf, with the possibility of climbing<br>
      further, the veracity of projections of large numbers of natural<br>
      gas power plants must be questioned. These projections of<br>
      natural gas capacity additions simply reflect today�s conven-tional<br>
      wisdom. And today�s conventional wisdom is of no<br>
      value when natural gas prices per million Btu have nearly<br>
      tripled in the last five years, and have at least briefly approached<br>
      double-digit levels.<br>
      The Path Forward<br>
      Relicensing of the existing plants and the up-rating of addi-tional<br>
      plants will continue commercial nuclear power�s renais-sance.<br>
      The Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI), in its Vision 2020<br>
      publication, expects the industry to add 10,000 MW of capac-ity<br>
      through increased efficiency and improved performance of<br>
      the existing 103 reactors. But NEI also states that a corner-stone<br>
      of the nuclear industry�s vision is to add 50,000 MW of<br>
      new generating capacity by 2020.<br>
      11<br>
      Complementing the industry vision is the DOE�s Nuclear<br>
      Power 2010 initiative to bring a new U.S. nuclear power plant<br>
      online by the end of the decade.<br>
      The DOE is providing modest financial support to Exelon<br>
      Nuclear, Entergy Nuclear, and Dominion Resources in the<br>
      preparation and submittal of early site permit applications to<br>
      the NRC. These applications will focus on sites that host oper-ating<br>
      nuclear power plants, but which were originally licensed<br>
      or designed to host additional reactors. The department also<br>
      has funded �scoping� studies analyzing both private and fed-eral<br>
      sites as potential locations of new nuclear plants. Identify-ing<br>
      and obtaining NRC permits for acceptable sites will answer<br>
      the question of where to build the first new nuclear plants and<br>
      remove a major hurdle to building new nuclear plants.<br>
      DOE also will offer to share the cost of demonstrating the<br>
      new regulatory process that enables utilities to obtain com-bined<br>
      construction-operating licenses. DOE states that pro-viding<br>
      a one-step licensing process will remove a major risk in<br>
      investing in new nuclear plants. Other initiatives undertaken<br>
      by the department and Congress to support the renaissance of<br>
      nuclear power are:<br>
      The affirmation of Yucca Mountain as the site of a per-manent<br>
      spent nuclear fuel repository. This will allow<br>
      nuclear plant owners to move spent nuclear fuel from<br>
      the more than 70 nuclear plant sites with temporary stor-age<br>
      facilities to a single site that is a permanent storage<br>
      facility.<br>
      Reauthorization of the Price-Anderson Act, which limits<br>
      the liability of nuclear plant owners in a catastrophic<br>
      nuclear event. While the conditions of such an event<br>
      occurring has not been formulated and presented, its<br>
      existence is a precondition for investment in new nuclear<br>
      power plants.<br>
      In addition to federal government support for nuclear<br>
      energy, there appears to be at least lukewarm public support<br>
      for the construction of new nuclear power plants. According<br>
      to NEI�s Vision 2020, two-thirds of those surveyed support<br>
      the continued and increased use of nuclear energy, with 27<br>
      percent of those surveyed opposed. Also, the president, vice<br>
      president, secretary of energy and other members of the<br>
      administration have issued strong statements in support of<br>
      nuclear energy, most prominently in the president�s national<br>
      energy policy.<br>
      What is holding up new plant construction? Except for<br>
      timing new investments to coincide with the ups and downs<br>
      of the business cycle, there is nothing stopping a decision to<br>
      build new nuclear plants but the reticence of nuclear plant<br>
      owner-management, their boards of directors, and Wall Street.<br>
      This reticence is difficult to comprehend given the large finan-cial<br>
      returns being earned on existing nuclear assets, and the<br>
      billions of dollars that have been lost on other ill-considered<br>
      energy ventures.<br>
      Energy company managers and their Wall Street advisors<br>
      have been pursuing investment strategies that couldn�t have<br>
      had a higher risk profile, while they have all but ignored new<br>
      nuclear plants.<br>
      John Sillin is a director of Sillin &amp; Associates and administrative<br>
      officer for Energy Strategists Consultancy Limited. He can be<br>
      reached at [email protected].<br>
      Endnotes<br>
      1. U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration Web<br>
      site, www.eia.doe.gov.<br>
      2. U.S. Commercial Nuclear Power Industry Assessment for Department<br>
      of Energy, Energy Information Administration, October 2001, Edward<br>
      M. Quinn, MDM Services Corp.<br>
      3. Reliable, Affordable, and Environmentally Sound Energy for America�s<br>
      Future; Report of the National Energy Policy Development Group;<br>
      May 17, 2001.<br>
      4. World Nuclear Association, www.world-nuclear.org.<br>
      5. Ibid.<br>
      6. Ibid.<br>
      7. Nuclear Energy Institute, www.nei.org.<br>
      8. Ibid.<br>
      9. Ibid.<br>
      10. The Wall Street Journal; May 16, 2003.<br>
      11. Vision 2020, Nuclear Energy and the Nation�s Future Prosperity;<br>
      Nuclear Energy Institute.<font face="Times New Roman"><br>
      <br>
&nbsp;</font></td>
  </tr>
</table>
</center></div>

<p align="center"><a href="#top">
<img src="../images/b-t-top.gif" alt="Back To Top" border="0" width="71" height="35"></a></p>
</body>
</html>

Anon7 - 2021