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<body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple style='tab-interval:.5in'>
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<p class=MsoNormal>An editorial (on 12 March 2011) in the <b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:
normal'><i style='mso-bidi-font-style:normal'><a
href="http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/12/opinion/12sat3.html?_r=1&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss"><span
style='color:purple'>New York Times</span></a></i></b> leads me to want to
restate some positions I have been espousing about Turkey�and to speculate for
a moment on their implications for Egypt and other countries being swept up in
the currently rising democratic fervor in the Islamic world.</p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>I have repeatedly been warning about the dangerous direction
in which the <b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'>politics of Turkey</b> have
been moving, most recently back in September in my warning about the <b
style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'>constitutional referendum</b> there (<a
href="http://www.rickrubens.com/Referendum.htm"><span style='color:purple'>http://www.RickRubens.com/Referendum.htm</span></a>,
in which the bad guys ended up winning, by the way).<span
style='mso-spacerun:yes'>� </span>The year before, I wrote my analysis of the <b
style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'>Current Political Situation in Turkey</b> (<a
href="http://www.rickrubens.com/UA-Istanbul.htm#_Toc247697291"><span
style='color:purple'>www.RickRubens.com/UA-Istanbul.htm#_Toc247697291</span></a>),
which was embedded in an admittedly overly long piece on the <b>Urban Age
Conference in Istanbul</b><span style='mso-bidi-font-weight:bold'> (</span><a
href="http://www.rickrubens.com/UA-Istanbul.htm"><span style='color:purple;
mso-bidi-font-weight:bold'>www.RickRubens.com/UA-Istanbul.htm</span></a><span
style='mso-bidi-font-weight:bold'>).<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>� </span>My
fear was and is that the situation in <u1:country-region u2:st="on">Turkey</u1:country-region>
actually has many similarities to that of pre-Islamic Revolution Iran�which is
a chilling possibility, given that in recent times <u1:country-region u2:st="on"><u1:place u2:st="on">Turkey</u1:place></u1:country-region>
has been <i style='mso-bidi-font-style:normal'>the</i> shining example of a
secular Muslim democracy.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>� </span>(Admittedly,
by Western standards, it has been somewhat limited in the extent of its
democracy; but it has been incredibly progressive for this part of the
world.)<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>� </span>The attack by the ruling <span
class=SpellE>AKP</span> on the <span class=SpellE>Kemalist</span>
establishment�and that establishment�s power base in Turkey�s military�has some
justification:<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>� </span>although the <span
class=SpellE>Kemalist</span> military and judiciary have been the staunch
defenders of secularism in the country, there are obviously huge problems with
the military having so very much power and control.<span
style='mso-spacerun:yes'>� </span>(The intellectual Left in <u1:place u2:st="on"><u1:country-region u2:st="on">Turkey</u1:country-region></u1:place>
actually has been <i style='mso-bidi-font-style:normal'>supporting</i> the <span
class=SpellE>AKP</span>, despite the Left�s fundamental dislike for its
politics, since it views it as an expedient for getting rid of military
control.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>� </span>Again, shades of pre-Revolution
<u1:country-region u2:st="on">Iran</u1:country-region>:<span
style='mso-spacerun:yes'>� </span>today in <u1:place u2:st="on"><u1:country-region u2:st="on">Turkey</u1:country-region></u1:place>
one hears the Left saying, �There really is no danger in this strategy, as in <i
style='mso-bidi-font-style:normal'>this</i> country there really is no serious
possibility of a threat from fundamentalist political Islam.�)<span
style='mso-spacerun:yes'>� </span>Nevertheless, it is clear that not only is
the electoral base of the <span class=SpellE>AKP</span> more fundamentalist in
its religious orientation than the party�s leadership acknowledges, but that
the <span class=SpellE>AKP</span> leadership itself is <i style='mso-bidi-font-style:
normal'>at very least</i> pandering to this orientation.<span
style='mso-spacerun:yes'>� </span>Moreover, in its political tactics, the <span
class=SpellE>AKP</span> has been engaged in simply dreadfully repressive
actions, most blatantly clear in its pursuit of the </span><span class=SpellE><span
class=mw-formatted-date><b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'><span lang=EN
style='color:black;mso-ansi-language:EN'>Ergenekon</span></b></span></span><span
class=mw-formatted-date><b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'><span lang=EN
style='color:black;mso-ansi-language:EN'> case</span></b></span><span
class=mw-formatted-date><span lang=EN style='color:black;mso-ansi-language:
EN'>, a trial involving hundreds of<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>�
</span>writers, academic, and journalists�in addition to the high ranking
military officials against whom the main charges of plotting to overthrow the
government were primarily directed (<i style='mso-bidi-font-style:normal'>q.v.</i>,
</span></span>my analysis of the <b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'>Current
Political Situation in Turkey</b> (<a
href="http://www.rickrubens.com/UA-Istanbul.htm#_Toc247697291"><span
style='color:purple'>www.RickRubens.com/UA-Istanbul.htm#_Toc247697291</span></a>,
which I do recommend to you for your consideration).<span
style='mso-spacerun:yes'>� </span>Along the way, the <span class=SpellE>AKP</span>-run
government has been systematically harassing journalists critical of its
position�<i style='mso-bidi-font-style:normal'>e.g.</i>, the case against <span
class=mw-formatted-date><span lang=EN style='color:black;mso-ansi-language:
EN'>the country�s </span></span><span class=mw-formatted-date><span lang=EN
style='mso-ansi-language:EN'>biggest media tycoon,<b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:
normal'> Aydin <span class=SpellE>Doğan</span></b><span style='color:black'>,</span>
whose media outlets have been strong opponents of <b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:
normal'>Prime Minister <span class=SpellE>Recep</span> <span class=SpellE>Tayyip</span>
<span class=SpellE>Erdoğan</span></b><span style='color:black'>, and the
case of </span></span></span><span style='mso-bidi-font-weight:bold'>investigative
journalist, <span class=SpellE><b>Nedim</b></span><b> <span class=SpellE>Sener</span></b>,
whose arrest is the subject of the <b><i style='mso-bidi-font-style:normal'><a
href="http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/12/opinion/12sat3.html?_r=1&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss"><span
style='color:purple;font-weight:normal;mso-bidi-font-weight:bold'>Times</span></a>
</i></b>editorial, below.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><u1:place u2:st="on"><u1:country-region u2:st="on">Turkey</u1:country-region></u1:place>
is in real danger of abandoning its democracy and its civil liberties along
with its secular traditions.</p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>There is <i style='mso-bidi-font-style:normal'>so</i> much
that is promising in the popular uprisings in <u1:country-region u2:st="on">Tunisia</u1:country-region>,
<u1:country-region u2:st="on">Egypt</u1:country-region>, <u1:country-region u2:st="on"><u1:place u2:st="on">Libya</u1:place></u1:country-region>,
and in other countries throughout that region.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>�
</span>(In fact, it almost feels like these democratic protests may have been
the inspiration for the public demonstrations against the union-busting efforts
of Governor Rick Scott and his Republican legislators in Wisconsin�albeit that
the U.S. version has, for the moment, proved to be less successful.)<span
style='mso-spacerun:yes'>� </span>Regimes that have exerted autocratic and
repressive control over their populations and have economically exploited their
citizenry for decades are now under serious attack, and some are crumbling; but
what will be left in the wake of these changes is quite complicated.<span
style='mso-spacerun:yes'>� </span>In <u1:country-region u2:st="on"><u1:place u2:st="on">Egypt</u1:place></u1:country-region>,
for example, the military is still strongly in control; and it will be very
interesting to see how much democracy it will ultimately be willing�or
forced�to accept in reality.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>� </span>What will
be the relationship between the Egyptian military�which, by the way, has (for
better or worse) long had extremely strong ties to the <u1:place u2:st="on"><u1:country-region u2:st="on">U.S.</u1:country-region></u1:place>
government�and the forces of democracy?<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>�
</span>What will be the role of the Muslim Brotherhood, and other Islamic
religious forces?<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>� </span>What will be the
tradeoffs between the downfall of these exploitative and repressive regimes and
what replaces them in terms of the more moderate external roles some of them
have played in the region?<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>� </span>Whatever the
direction of these developments, the history of the progression from autocratic
to democratic control in Turkey over the past century�and, in particular, how
the interaction of military forces, democratic forces, and religious forces has
played out in therein�offers many insights, and many warnings.<span
style='mso-spacerun:yes'>� </span>Nevertheless, it should be remembered that
the faltering democratic situation of <u1:country-region u2:st="on"><u1:place u2:st="on">Turkey</u1:place></u1:country-region>
may represent about the <i style='mso-bidi-font-style:normal'>best</i> that can
be hoped for as an outcome to these struggles.</p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>One thing is certain: in thinking about possible outcomes to
the changing situations in these countries, we all would do well carefully to
consider what has been going on in <u1:country-region u2:st="on"><u1:place u2:st="on">Turkey</u1:place></u1:country-region>.<span
class=mw-formatted-date><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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