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<p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center'><b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:
normal'><span style='font-size:16.0pt'>NEWS: Climate Change�<span class=GramE><i
style='mso-bidi-font-style:normal'>The</i></span><i style='mso-bidi-font-style:
normal'> Stern Review</i><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center'>Posted on 14 December
2007</p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>Given our country�s despicable performance at the Climate
Change conference going on in <st1:place w:st="on">Bali</st1:place>, I feel it
necessary to underscore some of the real facts and issues.<span
style='mso-spacerun:yes'>�� </span>Buried in my overly-long write up of the
Urban Age Conference in Mumbai last month (<a
href="http://www.columbia.edu/~rr322/UA-Mumbai.htm"><span style='color:purple'>http://www.columbia.edu/~rr322/UA-Mumbai.htm</span></a>
) was a description of Nick Stern�s presentation of climate change.<span
style='mso-spacerun:yes'>� </span>I <i style='mso-bidi-font-style:normal'>most</i>
strongly recommend that you read the Executive Summary to the report he did for
the British government on the economics of climate change.<span
style='mso-spacerun:yes'>� </span>(There are links to the long [27 page] and
short [4 page] versions of the Stern Review in the first paragraph, below.<span
style='mso-spacerun:yes'>� </span>I recommend the longer version�but you should
at least check out the short one if time does not permit you to read the longer
one.)<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>� </span>I have excerpted below the
paragraphs I wrote in my Mumbai report about the climate change discussions at
the UA Conference:<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'>The Conference took up the question
of <b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'><u><span style='text-transform:uppercase'>climate
change</span></u></b> and cities�and its relationship to <st1:country-region
w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">India</st1:place></st1:country-region>, in
particular.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>� </span>The main presentation was
done by <b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'>Sir Nicholas Stern</b>, who is
currently <span class=SpellE>IG</span> Patel Professor of Economics and
Government, and Director of the India Observatory, London School of
Economics�but who is a former chief economist of the World Bank, Head of the
Government Economic Service, and Adviser to the Her Majesty�s Government on the
economics of climate change and development.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>�
</span>But most notably, <b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'>Nick</b> was
the author of <b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'><i style='mso-bidi-font-style:
normal'>The Economics of Climate Change:<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>�
</span>Stern Review</i></b>, the 700 page study he did for the Cabinet Office
of Her Majesty�s Treasury, which made an enormously powerful impact on the
debate on climate change when it was released at the end of October 2006.<span
style='mso-spacerun:yes'>� </span>I most strongly recommend that you <i
style='mso-bidi-font-style:normal'>at least</i> read one of his <b
style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'>Executive Summaries </b>of the<b
style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'> <i style='mso-bidi-font-style:normal'>Stern
Review</i></b> (which, by the way, is available free in its entirety online at <span
lang=EN style='color:#333333;mso-ansi-language:EN'><a
href="http://hm-treasury.gov.uk/independent_reviews/stern_review_economics_climate_change/stern_review_report.cfm"><span
style='color:purple'>www.sternreview.org.uk</span></a>; and it is available in
book form at Amazon.com</span>):<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>�
</span>preferably the <a
href="http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/media/4/3/Executive_Summary.pdf"><span
style='color:purple'>longer version</span></a> (which, at 27 pages, has all of
the powerful and informative slides Nick showed in his Conference presentation,
as well as a much fuller presentation of the facts and thinking), but at least
the <a
href="http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/media/9/9/CLOSED_SHORT_executive_summary.pdf"><span
style='color:purple'>shorter version</span></a> (which, at 4 pages, will at
least lay out for you the bare bones of this most important document).<span
style='mso-spacerun:yes'>� </span>It received world wide attention, since it
powerfully demonstrated that the costs of the world reducing greenhouse gas
emissions to slow the pace of climate change, while enormous, were far
outweighed by the costs of <i style='mso-bidi-font-style:normal'>not</i> doing
so (citations are from the Executive Summaries of <i style='mso-bidi-font-style:
normal'>The Stern Review</i>):<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:1.0in;mso-layout-grid-align:none'><span
style='font-size:11.0pt'>Using the results from formal economic models, <i
style='mso-bidi-font-style:normal'>The Review</i> estimates that if we don�t
act, the overall costs and risks of climate change will be equivalent to losing
at least 5% of global GDP each year, now and forever. If a wider range of risks
and impacts is taken into account, the estimates of damage could rise to 20% of
GDP or more.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>� </span>In contrast, the costs of
action � reducing greenhouse gas emissions to avoid the worst impacts of
climate change � can be limited to around 1% of global GDP each year.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span
style='mso-spacerun:yes'>�</span>Essentially, it presented an economically
sound argument for why the world simply cannot afford not to make the necessary
changes.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>� </span>The<i style='mso-bidi-font-style:
normal'> Stern Review </i>also lays out in vivid detail what the long and short
term effects are of climate change at varying levels of temperature increases
(along with the economic costs of these effects), what different assumptions
about levels of reduction in greenhouse gases will mean in terms of resulting
temperature changes, and what can and must be done to avoid the worst of these
outcomes (along with a painstaking analysis of the cost of these measures):<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:1.0in;mso-layout-grid-align:none'><span
style='font-size:11.0pt'>All countries will be affected. The most vulnerable �
the poorest countries and populations � will suffer earliest and most, even
though they have contributed least to the causes of climate change.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:1.0in;mso-layout-grid-align:none'><span
style='font-size:11.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:1.0in;mso-layout-grid-align:none'><span
style='font-size:11.0pt'>�estimates of the annual costs of achieving
stabilization between 500 and 550ppm CO2e are around 1% of global GDP, if we
start to take strong action now.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:1.0in;mso-layout-grid-align:none'><span
style='font-size:11.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:1.0in;mso-layout-grid-align:none'><span
style='font-size:11.0pt'>The risks of the worst impacts of climate change can
be substantially reduced if greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere can be
stabilized between 450 and 550ppm CO2 equivalent (CO2e). The current level is
430ppm CO2e today, and it is rising at more than 2ppm each year. Stabilization
in this range would require emissions to be at least 25% below current levels
by 2050, and perhaps much more. Ultimately, stabilization � at whatever level �
requires that annual emissions be brought down to more than 80% below current
levels.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:1.0in;mso-layout-grid-align:none'><span
style='font-size:11.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:1.0in;mso-layout-grid-align:none'><span
style='font-size:11.0pt'>The costs of taking action are not evenly distributed
across sectors or around the world. Even if the rich world takes on
responsibility for absolute cuts in emissions of 60-80% by 2050, developing
countries must take significant action too. But developing countries should not
be required to bear the full costs of this action alone, and they will not have
to. Carbon markets in rich countries are already beginning to deliver flows of
finance to support low-carbon development, including through the Clean
Development Mechanism. A transformation of these flows is now required to
support action on the scale required.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:1.0in;mso-layout-grid-align:none'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span
style='mso-spacerun:yes'>�</span>Though brilliant, riveting, and convincingly
comprehensible, Nick�s Conference presentation was simply too dense and rich even
to attempt to summarize here.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>� </span>But here
are some of the most striking points he made:<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:6.0pt;
margin-left:1.0in;text-indent:-.25in;tab-stops:list 1.0in'><span
style='font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:Symbol;mso-bidi-font-family:
Symbol'>�</span><span style='font-size:7.0pt;mso-fareast-font-family:Symbol'>
</span>The biggest effects of climate change manifest through water: storms,
floods, droughts, crop failures, rise in sea level, etc.; the shorter term
consequences are already upon us in the form of more severe storms, more
extreme flooding, droughts; the more ultimately devastating consequences like
the rise of sea level are more long-term eventualities <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:6.0pt;
margin-left:1.0in;text-indent:-.25in;tab-stops:list 1.0in'><span
style='font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:Symbol;mso-bidi-font-family:
Symbol'>�</span><span style='font-size:7.0pt;mso-fareast-font-family:Symbol'>
</span><span class=GramE>We</span> <i style='mso-bidi-font-style:normal'>will</i>
go to a 2-3�C increase; at a 5�C increase, there would be massive population
shifts, and the regions close to the equator would become uninhabitable <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:6.0pt;
margin-left:1.0in;text-indent:-.25in;tab-stops:list 1.0in'><span
style='font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:Symbol;mso-bidi-font-family:
Symbol'>�</span><span style='font-size:7.0pt;mso-fareast-font-family:Symbol'>
</span><span class=GramE>For</span> there to be any reasonable future,
emissions need to peak within 15 years, then begin to decrease <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:6.0pt;
margin-left:1.0in;text-indent:-.25in;tab-stops:list 1.0in'><span
style='font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:Symbol;mso-bidi-font-family:
Symbol'>�</span><span style='font-size:7.0pt;mso-fareast-font-family:Symbol'>
</span>A great deal of energy consumption directly relates to cities; and
cities provide the possibility of increasing return to scale, due to public
transportation, local grids, skill agglomeration <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:6.0pt;
margin-left:1.0in;text-indent:-.25in;tab-stops:list 1.0in'><span
style='font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:Symbol;mso-bidi-font-family:
Symbol'>�</span><span style='font-size:7.0pt;mso-fareast-font-family:Symbol'>
</span><span class=GramE>The</span> world needs to act faster than it is accustomed
to doing <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:1.0in;text-indent:-.25in;tab-stops:list 1.0in'><span
style='font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:Symbol;mso-bidi-font-family:
Symbol'>�</span><span style='font-size:7.0pt;mso-fareast-font-family:Symbol'>
</span><span class=GramE>If</span> it becomes a horse race between development
and dealing with climate change, climate change will lose; it has to be done in
a way that permits and encourages both <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'>As for <st1:country-region w:st="on">India</st1:country-region>,
Nick pointed out that it is very vulnerable, but bears little responsibility
(the <st1:country-region w:st="on">U.S.</st1:country-region> produces over 20
tons/per person/per year of carbon emissions; Europe somewhat over 10 tons; <st1:country-region
w:st="on">China</st1:country-region> 4 tons; <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place
w:st="on">India</st1:place></st1:country-region> 1 ton).<span
style='mso-spacerun:yes'>� </span>Nevertheless, with its 1.2 billions people
and rapid economic growth, <st1:country-region w:st="on">India</st1:country-region>,
like <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">China</st1:place></st1:country-region>,
has the potential to become a major contributor to the problem.<span
style='mso-spacerun:yes'>� </span>There need to be strong carbon containment
objectives for <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">India</st1:place></st1:country-region>
and other developing countries, but they need to be compensated by wealthier
countries in order to make them possible:<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:1.0in;mso-layout-grid-align:none'><span
style='font-size:11.0pt'>In future, a transformation in the scale of, and
institutions for, international carbon finance flows will be required to
support cost-effective emissions reductions. The incremental costs of
low-carbon investments in developing countries are likely to be at least $20-30
billion per year. Providing assistance with these costs will require a major
increase in the level of ambition of trading schemes such as the EU <span
class=SpellE>ETS</span>. This will also require mechanisms that link
private-sector carbon finance to policies and programs rather than to
individual projects. And it should work within a context of national, regional
or <span class=SpellE>sectoral</span> objectives for emissions reductions.
These flows will be crucial in accelerating private investment and national
government action in developing countries.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:1.0in;mso-layout-grid-align:none'><span
style='font-size:11.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:1.0in;mso-layout-grid-align:none'><span
style='font-size:11.0pt'>Key elements of future international frameworks should
include:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:1.5in;mso-layout-grid-align:none'><span
class=GramE><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>�<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>�
</span>Emissions</span></span><span style='font-size:11.0pt'> trading<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:1.5in;mso-layout-grid-align:none'><span
class=GramE><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>�<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>�
</span>Technology</span></span><span style='font-size:11.0pt'> cooperation<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:1.5in;mso-layout-grid-align:none'><span
class=GramE><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>�<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>�
</span>Action</span></span><span style='font-size:11.0pt'> to reduce
deforestation<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:1.5in;mso-layout-grid-align:none'><span
class=GramE><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>�<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>�
</span>Adaptation</span></span><span style='font-size:11.0pt'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:1.0in;mso-layout-grid-align:none'><span
style='font-size:11.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:1.0in;mso-layout-grid-align:none'><span
style='font-size:11.0pt'>There is still time to avoid the worst impacts of
climate change, if we take strong action now. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in;mso-layout-grid-align:none'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in;mso-layout-grid-align:none'>Some of <st1:country-region
w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">India</st1:place></st1:country-region>�s cities
have already made strides in the direction of controlling carbon
emissions.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>� </span><b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:
normal'>Sheila <span class=SpellE>Dikshit</span></b>, Chief Minister of Delhi,
reported that Delhi has made great strides in this direction, including managing
to convert its public transportation system entirely to <span class=SpellE>CNG</span>
(compressed natural gas); and while that does not convincingly support her
claim that the system is now emissions free (an untenable assumption to anyone
who understands the physics of energy), it has been part of what has moved
Delhi from its position as the most polluted city to a much greener place�with
reduced pollution, increasingly good public transportation (including 72 km of
metro system, with plans to expand to over 200 km by 2010), and the planting of
1 million trees.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>� </span>In <b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:
normal'>2005</b>, <st1:City w:st="on"><b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'>Delhi</b></st1:City>
was the first city in <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">India</st1:place></st1:country-region>
ever to win the prestigious <b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'>United
Nations Public Service Award</b>, given for �innovative projects that
prioritize accountability, service delivery, <span class=GramE>transparency</span>.�<o:p></o:p></p>
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font-family:Arial'><img border=0 width=573 height=3 id="_x0000_i1025"
src="../RCN/line1.gif"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p align=center style='text-align:center'><b><span style='font-family:Arial'><a
href="http://www.rlrubens.com/"><i>Return to the Dead Parrot homepage <span
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