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<div class=Section1>
<p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center'><b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:
normal'><span style='font-size:16.0pt'>CONFLICT ANTICIPATION<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'>We met Chris Honeyman a few weeks ago, and I talked
with him extensively about his new ideas about developing a form of consulting
that would anticipate conflicts in organizations, rather than just responding
to conflicts that have already arisen.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>� </span>I
found his concepts and approach to be fascinating and exciting.<span
style='mso-spacerun:yes'>� </span>He was kind enough to send me the excellent
article he and his colleagues had recently published announcing this new study
of what they call �conflict anticipation.�<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>�
</span>I am passing the copy below of it on to you so you can judge for
yourself.</p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'>I particularly appreciated their analysis of the
barriers to anticipating conflicts; I thought it to be extremely
insightful.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>� </span>At the end of the article,
the authors welcome any substantive reactions to their ideas:</p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:28.0pt;mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:
28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'>The reader, however, may not agree, or may have a
different perception of where the key problems lie. <i style='mso-bidi-font-style:
normal'>Alternatives</i> subscribers� ranks are replete with people whose
practical experience bears on questions of the usefulness, strategy and the
service-ready status of conflict anticipation. We look forward to your comments
and criticisms. Please send them, signed or anonymous, to
[email protected] or [email protected]�-and we will return to <i
style='mso-bidi-font-style:normal'>Alternatives</i> to report them.</p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'>Chris and Andrea Schneider are the co-editors
(architects? certainly more than just editors..) of <i style='mso-bidi-font-style:
normal'>The Negotiator�s Fieldbook:<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>� </span>The
Desk Reference for the Experienced Negotiator</i>�an impressive 800 page
compendium on negotiation by 80 contributors from nearly 30 academic
disciplines and practice settings.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>� </span>(The
authors of the current article are all major contributors to the <i
style='mso-bidi-font-style:normal'>Fieldbook</i>.)<span
style='mso-spacerun:yes'>� </span>The end of the article has a brief
description of the <i style='mso-bidi-font-style:normal'>Fieldbook</i>; but
here is a link to a review of the <i style='mso-bidi-font-style:normal'>Fieldbook</i>
by Michael Wheeler in <i style='mso-bidi-font-style:normal'>Dispute Resolution
Magazine</i>:<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>� </span><a
href="http://www.rlrubens.com/FieldbookReivew.pdf">www.RLRubens.com/FieldbookReview.pdf</a><span
style='mso-spacerun:yes'>� </span>.</p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'>(If you�d prefer it to the copy below, here is a
link to a .pdf version of the conflict anticipation article:<span
style='mso-spacerun:yes'>� </span><a href="http://www.rlrubens.com/frontier.pdf"><span
style='color:purple'>www.RLRubens.com/frontier.pdf</span></a> )</p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'><span
style='font-size:19.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Times-Roman'>The
Next Frontier Is Anticipation: Thinking Ahead About Conflict to Help Clients
Find Constructive Ways to Engage Issues in Advance</span></b><b
style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'><span style='font-size:7.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Helvetica'><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><span style='font-size:7.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Helvetica'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><span style='font-size:7.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Helvetica'>VOL. 25<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>�
</span>NO. 6<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>�� </span>JUNE2007 ALTERNATIVES<span
style='mso-spacerun:yes'>� </span>pages 99-103</span><span style='font-family:
Helvetica'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><span style='font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Times'>Published online in Wiley InterScience<span
style='mso-spacerun:yes'>� </span>(</span><span style='font-size:8.0pt;
mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Times-Roman'><a
href="http://www.interscience.wiley.com/"><span style='font-family:Times'>www.interscience.wiley.com</span></a></span><span
style='font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Times'>).</span><span
style='font-family:Helvetica'> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><span style='font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Times'>Alternatives</span><span style='font-family:Helvetica'>
</span><span style='font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Times'>DOI:
10.1002/alt</span><span style='font-family:Helvetica'> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><span style='font-family:Helvetica'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><span style='font-family:Helvetica'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><span style='font-family:Helvetica'>BY CHRISTOPHER
HONEYMAN, JULIE MACFARLANE, BERNARD MAYER, ANDREA SCHNEIDER AND JEFF SEUL <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><span style='font-family:Helvetica'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'>Do major, sophisticated, well-funded companies,
institutions and organizations often find themselves blindsided by conflicts
they might have anticipated? We think so. </p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'>The Brent Spar fiasco is a high-profile example. By
1995, Shell <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">UK</st1:country-region></st1:place>
had spent four years planning for the deliberate sinking of the Brent Spar, an
obsolete, 20-year- old, billion-dollar oil rig. But the plans went haywire.
Shell discovered to its horror that extensive internal analysis of the safest
disposal method, the company�s worldwide presence and influence, and even its
government-approved disposal permits weren�t enough to forestall a public
debacle. </p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'>Greenpeace�s opposition campaign, which included
occupying the rig, found oil industry allies; European governments objected to
the disposal plan; Shell personnel and gas stations were attacked, and the
company�s profits suffered. The rig was eventually dismantled, with some of it
scrapped on land, and some recycled in building new offshore installations. The
resolution was protracted and costly� because the conflict was completely
unanticipated. </p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'>With more than 10 years� perspective, is there any
reason to believe now that Shell was less responsible than lots of other
companies whose failures in the same vein simply don�t attract as much
publicity? Is it, perhaps, predictable that major and generally well-respected
firms and government agencies will frequently paint themselves into similar
corners? Is there any real knowledge and skill base that could help firms and
other organizations avoid this kind of public or private trauma? </p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'>In the introduction to a new book, two of the
authors of this article�see accompanying sidebar below�outline how the
intellectual basis of conflict resolution has expanded. In parallel, during the
past 30 years, conflict management practice work has burgeoned. </p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'>One result of this thought and practice is that
expertise in handling conflict, whether as negotiators, mediators, specialized
advisers, or in other capacities, is now more widely available. Expertise
is<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>� </span>available for integrating different
skills and specialized knowledge in resolving conflicts. </p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'>Yet almost all of this expertise is geared to
situations where the toothpaste is already out of the tube. Major organizations
routinely miss opportunities by failing to anticipate foreseeable conflicts.
The resulting problems, regardless of whether they become publicly embarrassing
like Brent Spar, too often become expensive and time-consuming to unravel
later. </p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'>Conflict management isn�t the first profession to
move from an initial focus on the immediate and unmistakable toward greater
attention to underlying causes. The authors believe that conflict management is
now at an equivalent developmental stage to that once experienced by dentistry�when
pulling teeth had become fairly efficient, and the leading dentists had
developed workable false teeth and rudimentary fillings, but preventive
dentistry wasn�t yet a regular expectation. </p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'>Many organizations now provide negotiation or
conflict management training, or training in creating systems for resolving
routine disputes. But the sophistication of these efforts seldom extends to
anticipating major disputes and creating an environment for their constructive
engagement. Few conflict resolution practitioners have specialized in
anticipating conflict in time to avert it, and in helping clients find
constructive ways of engaging the issues in advance, rather than trying to
manage them after the fact. </p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'>Meanwhile, organizations often fail to see the potential
for constructively engaging in conflict as a means to promoting the
organization�s future. In other words, they overlook the possibility that
actively engaging with the emerging conflict will not only provide a more
workable and more durable outcome for the immediate issue, but provide useful
lessons, as well as giving real effect to the often-stated commitment to be a
�learning organization.� </p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'>The authors believe that anticipating conflict in a
sophisticated way can have a significant bottom-line effect. For this to
happen, conflict anticipation as a skill set needs to be brought to the
forefront of business practices. This is certainly not the case at present.
This article outlines the reasons why. It also discusses the work that has been
done in the field, and what�s missing. The article proposes a new type of
consultant, a conflict anticipation specialist, and outlines the tasks such a
specialist will perform. </p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><span style='font-family:Helvetica'>CAUTION:
SIGNIFICANT FORCES <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><span style='font-family:Helvetica'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'>There are significant forces in play that often
prevent a more thoughtful and pragmatic approach to anticipating and preparing
for conflict. These forces often lead otherwise smart people to let a problem
fester, or impose a superficially adequate outcome which at first seems to
avoid the problem, but really only delays it. This pattern occurs even when the
results are counter to the real interests of almost everyone involved, and even
when the fairly predictable result is that parts of the organization become
dysfunctional. </p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'>There are a number of overlapping explanations for
our frequent failure to stay ahead of conflict: </p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:6.0pt;
margin-left:28.0pt;mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'>� Some of those involved are wary of admitting a
conflict may be brewing (a circumstance that must be handled delicately by a
practitioner who proposes to help.) Organizations, whether corporations, public
sector departments, or non-governmental groups, tend toward myopia about
conflict. They often either </p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:6.0pt;
margin-left:.5in;mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'>� do not anticipate conflict at all�the classic
�rosy scenario� is prevalent in organizations� blithe assumption that nobody
will surface opposing a proposal or initiative; or </p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:6.0pt;
margin-left:.5in;mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'>� have a general sense that some kind of conflict
may ensue from a given initiative, but find it difficult to anticipate its
scope or seriousness. </p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:6.0pt;
margin-left:28.0pt;mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'>� A single powerful leader�s strongly articulated
viewpoint can so affect those around and under him or her that dissenting
notions are suppressed, creating a �march to folly.� The EuroDisney debacle is
a classic example. When Disney planned to open its first European park, the
ultimate decision maker early and openly trumpeted his enthusiasm for a
location near <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Paris</st1:City></st1:place>.
Not surprisingly, there is no record of any �this-isn�t-going-to-work�
sentiment being expressed by anyone lower in the company. Even when an
executive who renders an early opinion may have wanted to hear and evaluate the
dissent fairly, it�s not unusual for others to conclude otherwise, often
because the organization has sent mixed signals in the past. </p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:6.0pt;
margin-left:28.0pt;mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'>� Organizations often frame the prospect of
conflict as a public relations or political problem, implicitly assuming the
conflict can be sidetracked or suppressed. The underlying assumption seems to
be that if opposition does appear, it will be demonstrably wrong on the merits,
as well as poorly organized. This is the organizational equivalent to the
thoroughly researched phenomenon of �optimistic overconfidence� in individuals,
particularly the tendency to overestimate the individual�s ability to control
events in his or her favor. See Russell Korobkin, �Psychological Biases that
Become Mediation Impediments Can Be Overcome with Interventions that Minimize
Blockages,� 24 <i style='mso-bidi-font-style:normal'>Alternatives</i> 67 (April
2006). </p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:6.0pt;
margin-left:28.0pt;mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'>� Managers and planners often overlook underlying
structural problems, values, or interests that can generate conflict around
actions or plans that appear straightforward or reasonable at first. Some of
these deeper concerns�for example, globalization or climate change�give the
impression they are �not our problem to fix,� because they are difficult to
address and seldom the Thinking Ahead Managers often feel that looming
opposition to a proposal is trivial, unreasonable, or invalid.<span
style='mso-spacerun:yes'>� </span>responsibility of any individual
organization. But that does not mean that they will not have critical impact on
a practical business decision. </p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:6.0pt;
margin-left:28.0pt;mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'>� Managers often feel that looming opposition to a
proposal or decision shouldn�t be a problem, because it�s just trivial,
unreasonable, or invalid. While this reaction may sometimes be understandable,
managers often proceed reflexively from �This shouldn�t be a problem� to �So
this isn�t a problem.� Entire organizations have found themselves in a
collective snit as a result. </p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><span style='font-family:Helvetica'>SYSTEMIC CAUSES
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'>In most cases, an explanation for overlooking or
ignoring the emergence of conflict can be traced to one or more of these given
reasons. But other explanations for a reluctance to anticipate conflict operate
on a more general, systemic scale. Three in particular stand out, and may
relate somewhat to each other.</p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>�</span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'>The first is human nature: �Ignore it and maybe it
will go away.� That is a common organizational reaction to any unpleasant
phenomenon. It works at least some of the time, so it can�t be discounted
entirely. </p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'>Another general explanation is that the growing
application of �systems thinking� to organizational problems has not yet
recognized �conflict systems� as a category. The most popular book on the
subject, Peter M. Senge�s �The Fifth Discipline,� points out, however, one
element in a conflict system�that the personal and career costs of allowing a
conflict to fester may not actually be paid by the executive responsible for
such a �decision by default.� Papering over the cracks can work at least
superficially and for a while. Given common job promotion rates of apparently
successful managers, there�s a good chance the chickens will come home to roost
on the desk of the executive�s successor. </p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'>The third systemic reason for failure to anticipate
conflict is the most important, because it aids and abets the others. The array
of talent customarily employed to handle conflict�including not only
organizational insiders, but outside counsel, management consultants, risk
management professionals and public relations and crisis management firms,
among others�includes many talented, vocal and persuasive people. </p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'>But while each of these specialties offers
expertise in one aspect of the conflict challenge, in our experience not one of
them is properly chartered to investigate, analyze, and help with the conflict
(or a stream of conflicts) as a whole system. Even strategic planners, whose
job descriptions are theoretically broad enough to include this function,
generally don�t take on its full implications, partly because they aren�t often
trained for it. </p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><span style='font-family:Helvetica'>ORGANIZATIONS
IN STRESS <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'>At root, the common failure to apply thorough
analysis, integrated systems management, and the coordination of specialist
skills to enable holistic conflict anticipation is due to stresses common in
corporations and other organizations. </p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'>Typical of such stresses is the perceived risk that
regular audits to identify and address impending conflicts, or a forthright
approach to a conflict that may be awkward to handle, will reveal
organizational weaknesses or deep fissures. To a decision maker who has little
confidence that the core conflict can be constructively engaged, conflict
avoidance seems �less risky� than genuine conflict engagement. This is not
necessarily outright denial. It occurs in the relatively subtle form of a
downplaying of risks, or an inaccurate framing of a potential problem. But even
when the refusal to face the problem is a matter of emphasis or degree rather
than a head-in-sand refusal to recognize reality, this can set the organization
up for immense costs later on. </p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'>All of these circumstances, and their likely
results, are predictable to an experienced conflict manager. An example of such
predictability is the pattern of problems in corporate mergers. Combinations of
companies large and small, as well as partnership mergers, often fail. The
failures almost never appear to result from poor due diligence on the numbers.
The expensive advisers surrounding the parties generally get that part of the
equation right. </p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'>But the internal politics, overlapping hierarchies,
disparate cultures, and key players� individual ambitions add up to another
matter entirely. These factors aren�t easily reduced to spreadsheets and budget
projections, and there often is real resistance to disclosing them. For both
reasons, anticipating and preparing for these critical dimensions of a merger,
or the equivalent in other organizational changes, tends to receive less
attention than the hard technical or financial information. </p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'>The same kinds of problems occur in the public
sector, with even more at stake. An example is Admiral Vernon Clark�s salty
account�as quoted by Bob Woodward in �State of <st1:State w:st="on">Denial</st1:State>,�
p. 61�of the 1999 Situation Room meetings that led to the unexpectedly lengthy
bombing of <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Serbia</st1:country-region></st1:place>.
That campaign caused resentments for which the <st1:country-region w:st="on">United
States</st1:country-region> continues to pay a price today, and foreshadow
what are now widely seen as similar errors in the <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Iraq</st1:country-region></st1:place> war. <st1:place w:st="on">Clark</st1:place>
was then operations director of the military�s Joint Chiefs of Staff, affording
him a bird�s eye view of the proceedings but not much of a speaking role: </p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:28.0pt;mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:
28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'>�It was all supposed to be over in 48 hours, and
then in 72 hours,� <st1:place w:st="on">Clark</st1:place> said. Instead, it
took 78 days of bombing to get <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Yugoslavia</st1:country-region></st1:place>
President Slobodan Milosevic to cave. �You needed a roomful of psychiatrists to
counsel all the cabinet members to make sure none of them slit their wrists,
because they had so grossly misrepresented what was going to happen.<span
style='mso-spacerun:yes'>� </span>. . .� In Kosovo, <st1:place w:st="on">Clark</st1:place>
said, the optimism was so deep that there was a 72-hour strike plan�with
nothing planned to follow it. �Zero,� he said. </p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'>There are examples of this false optimism and lack
of anticipation in every industry, every kind of government function, and in
every age, back through the origins of both World Wars, <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City
w:st="on">Florence</st1:City></st1:place> under the Medicis, and the Trojan
War. </p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'>There is no evidence that the growing knowledge and
skill set of the conflict management field has yet had much impact on the
ability of managers to anticipate and forestall problems of this nature. In a
nutshell, the integrative function of conflict anticipation remains to be
developed out of the component parts that the field of conflict management
field has developed over the past 30 years. </p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'>The occasional ray of light in this picture
includes the small subset of strategic planners who have a strong conflict
management background, and a willingness to use it. There are also some
management consultants with the appropriate background and interests to assist
with conflict anticipation, as well as certain diplomats and NGO experts who
sometimes perform these functions in high-profile international problems. But
in the <st1:country-region w:st="on">U.S.</st1:country-region> and <st1:place
w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Canada</st1:country-region></st1:place>
at least, this task generally seems to fall to lawyers.<span
style='mso-spacerun:yes'>� </span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'>Lawyers� standard philosophical map provides at
least an opening toward this concept, since it includes screening of deals and
initiatives for possible trouble. But in a telling reflection of how lawyers
are still predominantly trained, the scope of such reviews is still often
defined in terms of legal problems only, though this may include financial or
business ramifications, the likelihood of default, and similar concerns. </p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'>Lawyers are not often asked to zero in on human
relationships problems, overlapping or even contradictory functions within an organization,
the impact of particular leaders or managers on corporate culture, or any of
the myriad reasons aside from the legal and financial issues that may cause a
proposal, deal, or change effort to go wrong. </p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'>Existing conflict anticipation work, meanwhile,
tends to be focused on more specific, routinized and less systemic issues, such
as personnel issues, consumer complaints, or franchise disputes. Big business
and other large organizations now often prefer to see such routine cases
resolved in a private and consensual way, and may engage in a system design or
planning process to achieve this. But these are not generally viewed as part of
the business core; meanwhile, the more complex and systemic issues
organizations face do not respond to routinized approaches. </p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'>There are also some conflict practitioners working
at reducing conflict costs, and in team building and evaluation. But, in
general, these still are scattered efforts, with little evidence of their
successful integration into large organizations� planning and key operations.</p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>�</span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><span style='font-family:Helvetica'>�SLOW IN
COMING� <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'>Conflict anticipation has been slow in coming, but
we think the time is now right for such a practice to emerge�for several
reasons: </p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'>The inefficiency of information transfer between
providers and scholars who work in widely separated parts of the field has long
been a limiting factor to its growth. But that is now changing. In recent
months, for instance, the potential business uses of the extraordinary insights
developed by police hostage negotiators have started to be articulated.
Similarly, the knowledge gained by people dealing with cross-cultural
negotiations is gradually becoming more widely appreciated in business circles.
</p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'>It takes time for the potential applications of a
new set of knowledge and skills to filter through to those who must cope daily
with other pressing organizational needs. And many potential clients�that is,
upper-level business and other leaders� have not yet been approached with
clear, concrete and decision-ready proposals for action in this area. </p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'>Finally, conflict anticipation work incurs fees and
other costs, which must be allocated to a department or budget-line item. But
unless and until the work is done�and maybe even then�it may be far from
obvious which department or function would have been most adversely affected by
not having the work performed, or which unit for other reasons is the most
appropriate candidate to bear the costs. This too may change; as the new field
begins to grow, corporate players are likely to realize that the department
paying for such a service is likely to get more of a voice in provider
selection, and perhaps an earlier heads-up as to any problems found. </p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'>It also is possible that conflict anticipation will
need to be undertaken or at least endorsed from a high vantage point within an
organization, such that costs should be structured as a central, shared cost
for the entire organization. </p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><span style='font-family:Helvetica'>NEW
DEVELOPMENTS, <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><span style='font-family:Helvetica'>NEW
POSSIBILITIES <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'>At least one of the factors described
above�deficiencies in information transfer between scholars and practitioners�
has begun to be addressed in recent years. One conspicuous effort is �The
Negotiator�s Fieldbook,� which works toward integrating 80 kinds of expertise
on negotiating, a core function in conflict management of virtually all kinds.
[Two of this article�s coauthors edited the book, and the others contributed;
for full credits and details on how the book relates to the conflict
anticipation practices proposed here, see the box on page 99.] </p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'>And as we have suggested above, other negative
elements in the �hindrance package� may now may be starting to dissipate too.
With that, business leaders may be ready for a more sophisticated and
integrated conflict management strategy�one that addresses the necessity of a
managed approach to possible or inevitable conflict. </p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'>Still, business leaders have their own work to do.
It�s too much to expect them to become dedicated readers of books about managing
conflict. But even if the client lacks the time to invest personally beyond a
symbolic role in advocating a holistic approach to conflict anticipation, it
should become easier to explain efficiently why findings from social and
cognitive psychology, diplomacy, the arts, hostage negotiation, economics, law
and many other fields can now be interrelated, and incorporated, to useful
effect in the client�s interest. </p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'>In formulating either the design of a consulting
service or the specific goals of a consulting contract, it�s important to note
that a systematic approach to anticipating conflict is not about suppressing
conflict. It�s not even about planning exactly how to deal with it on any
routinized level. Nor is an anticipatory approach focused merely on bringing in
experts to do a �conflict inventory� and predict where an organization is
likely to find problems. </p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'>Instead, it is about a management practice that
implies working with key people at a variety of organizational levels to help
them anticipate and prepare for their own work with significant conflict. It
also implies staying with them as a resource as they do so. This is essential
not only to prepare the organization for the conflict that is most immediately
at hand, but to prepare the key people to develop their own ability to be
adaptive for the future. This experience will enable the recognition of certain
consistent elements of conflict, and of best practices in managing them
effectively. </p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'>A work specification from a forward-thinking client
is likely to frame the task partly in terms of preparing the corporation or
other organization for the inevitable conflicts, as well as minimizing their
disruptive effects, by creating the resources, capacities, knowledge base, and
structures that can best handle the types of conflict that are most likely to
arise. In other words, a core goal ought to be to help the organization as a
whole become more adaptive to the opportunities, as well as the challenges,
presented by conflict. </p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'>From this point of view, the work comes close to
strategic planning. Another aspect is similar to the work of the risk manager.
There are common themes here with traditional roles played by in-house counsel,
and even more with the emerging literature of �preventive lawyering.� On still
another level, the work is close to both management consulting and training,
for it requires helping clients to learn to handle conflicts in a cooperative
and constructive spirit. Yet the work we are describing here is neither
encompassed by nor the same as any of these existing roles, all of which will
still be needed. The missing element, instead, involves coordinating these
skills, and making sure their holders actually get to use them. </p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'>This approach places significant demands on
clients. It may require clients to acknowledge that a technically brilliant
plan is still deficient if it does not anticipate conflicts that commonly arise
in the contexts of relationships and organizational culture. It may in some
cases require a client to consider seriously an early approach to people or
groups with whom conflict is likely to arise. Some clients may find it hard to
make that approach in a genuine collaborative spirit�even while intellectually
accepting that commencing a superficial public relations effort can become
self-defeating, or that trying to manipulate a supposed �adversary� can easily
become a self-fulfilling definition of the other party. </p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'>Yet this isn�t really that radical. It�s largely a
matter of giving a new application to skills and tasks already familiar to many
organizations. These include looking at patterns in similar businesses
undergoing change or transitions; expanding staff members� imaginations in
anticipating transitions of all kinds; building conflict resolution champions within
the organization; training people really well; strengthening internal consensus
around goals and mission; and building monitoring systems. None of these
functions, unpacked, is new. </p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><span style='font-family:Helvetica'>THE
SPECIALIST�S ROLE <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'>The conflict anticipation consultant�s services
should include convening the other experts�internal and external�in such a way
as to foster a genuine team. The consultant can make sure that the team creates
a systematic inventory of elements of a threatened conflict, or of a possible
stream of conflict that has not yet surfaced. The consultant also would help
design and mobilize internal units that can track and manage conflict. </p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'>The conflict anticipation specialist cannot,
however, supplant lawyers or any other existing type of expert, nor is it likely
that this represents a new form of inside manager. Indeed, many parts of the
overall conflict anticipation function can best be performed by existing
managers. Some can only be performed by insiders. The anticipation specialist
works, however, to avoid the fragmentation and �silo� problems described above.
The conflict anticipation specialist should also help managers and others face
up to the challenges and opportunities of being the �bearer of bad tidings,� a
responsibility which experience shows often is seen as so crushing that it
simply isn�t performed. </p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'>The 2004 book �Beyond Neutrality,� written by
Bernard Mayer, one of this article�s authors [see sidebar on page 99], suggests
that the core knowledge base for the specialist�s role includes understanding
conflict dynamics, problem solving, communication, conflict�s cultural aspects,
power, process design, group dynamics and systems, and negotiation and
mediation expertise. [�Beyond Neutrality� was a cowinner of the 2004 book award
in CPR�s Awards for Excellence in ADR.] </p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><span style='font-family:Helvetica'>CALL FOR �EARLY
ADOPTERS� <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'>All of this work demands a certain maturity on the
client�s part as well as the provider�s. But at every development stage, the
conflict resolution field has needed a few such early adopters. Conflict
anticipation is at a developmental stage where expertise exists, organizations
are in a position to accommodate such practices, and there is a strong need.
Yet today, a large organization addressing conflict in light of the principles
described here would be considered an early adopter. </p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'>Unless, of course, the organization already has
adopted something quite like it. The partnering model for anticipating conflict
between contractors and suppliers (and owners, architects, engineers, officials
. . .) on large construction projects has been used successfully by a number of
corporations and government agencies. Another established model comes from
collective bargaining; the labor-management cooperation consulting practice has
been well known for decades. </p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'>Surely, there are less-publicized, company-specific
practices in other domains that have recognized early on the extraordinary
importance of getting a handle on their future conflicts, and which have
embodied the habit of thinking beyond the most obvious, routine, or specialized
conflicts. Seen this way, the �new� function of conflict anticipation is
largely a matter of<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>� </span>logical development
from known models�again, not so radical after all. </p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'>* * * </p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'>The consequences of the conflict resolution field
not preparing and offering conflict anticipation services in the past are all
around us. There�s only so much a field still in its infancy can achieve, but
the authors of this article believe evidence is accumulating that conflict
resolution�s infancy is over and that conflict anticipation is ready to happen.
The time has come for a sophisticated and determined effort at the next
frontier for the conflict resolution field. </p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'>The reader, however, may not agree, or may have a
different perception of where the key problems lie. Alternatives subscribers�
ranks are replete with people whose practical experience bears on questions of
the usefulness, strategy and the service-ready status of conflict anticipation.
We look forward to your comments and criticisms. Please send them, signed or
anonymous, to [email protected] or [email protected]�-and we will
return to Alternatives to report them.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>� </span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'>(For bulk reprints of this article, please call
(201) 748-8789.)</p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;mso-pagination:none;
tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'>*<span style='mso-tab-count:1'>������ </span>*<span
style='mso-tab-count:1'>������� </span>*<span style='mso-tab-count:1'>������ </span>*<span
style='mso-tab-count:1'>������ </span>*<span style='mso-tab-count:1'>������� </span>*<span
style='mso-tab-count:1'>������ </span>*<span style='mso-tab-count:1'>������ </span>*<span
style='mso-tab-count:1'>������� </span>*<span style='mso-tab-count:1'>������ </span>*<span
style='mso-tab-count:1'>������ </span>*</p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Helvetica'>PROPOSING MORE ANTICIPATION: THE AUTHORS OF �THE
NEXT FRONTIER�</span><span style='font-family:Helvetica'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'>Christopher Honeyman is managing partner of
Convenor Conflict Management, in <st1:City w:st="on">Madison</st1:City>, <st1:State
w:st="on">Wis.</st1:State> and <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Washington</st1:City>,
<st1:State w:st="on">DC</st1:State></st1:place>. Julie Macfarlane is a law professor
at the <st1:PlaceType w:st="on">University</st1:PlaceType> of <st1:PlaceName
w:st="on">Windsor</st1:PlaceName>, <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Windsor</st1:City>,
<st1:State w:st="on">Ontario</st1:State></st1:place> and an active
mediator/facilitator/ organizational consultant. Bernard Mayer is a professor
at the Werner Institute for Negotiation and Dispute Resolution at the Creighton
University School of Law, <st1:City w:st="on">Omaha</st1:City>, <st1:State
w:st="on">Neb.</st1:State>, and a partner in CDR Associates, an international
conflict resolution organization based in <st1:City w:st="on">Boulder</st1:City>,
<st1:State w:st="on">Colo.</st1:State> Andrea Kupfer Schneider is a law
professor at <st1:PlaceName w:st="on">Marquette</st1:PlaceName> <st1:PlaceType
w:st="on">University</st1:PlaceType> <st1:PlaceName w:st="on">Law</st1:PlaceName>
<st1:PlaceType w:st="on">School</st1:PlaceType> in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City
w:st="on">Milwaukee</st1:City></st1:place>. Jeff Seul is a partner with the <st1:place
w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Boston</st1:City></st1:place> office of the
international law firm Holland & Knight. </p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'>The authors are interested in promoting conflict
anticipation work and are cooperating under the auspices of Convenor Conflict
Management on a number of related initiatives. They also are contributors to
�The Negotiator�s Fieldbook� (American Bar Association 2006), edited by
Schneider and Honeyman. </p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'>The Fieldbook features 80 contributors from nearly
30 academic disciplines and practice settings. The authors note that �it is a
telling sign of the increasing cross-fertilization of this field that the <st1:place
w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">ABA</st1:City></st1:place> offered to publish a
book in which lawyers are a minority of the contributors.� The writings
illustrate the range of expertise in conflict management now available, and how
they can be integrated into new functions such as conflict anticipation. </p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'>For example, coauthor Mayer writes on the creative
use of allies in a negotiation; Macfarlane analyzes the early signs of a
potential paradigm shift among lawyers toward new models of client advocacy
that promote conflict resolution rather than do-or-die hostilities; and Seul
assesses the attitudes toward conflict that are explicit and implicit in each
of the world�s major religions. Schneider and Honeyman wrote or coauthored
chapters on negotiators� aspirations and reputations, the surprising value of
ambiguity, how agreements can be made to last, the uses of the arts in major
conflict, mediators� skills (and their often unacknowledged policies and
biases), and the use and misuse of metaphors, among other subjects. </p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'>The structure of the 768-page Fieldbook, similarly,
begins to indicate how different fields� expertise can be integrated into a
more sophisticated conflict anticipation practice, as well as
conflict-handling. The book provides integration tools including numerous
chapters grappling with the consequences of coming from more than one
discipline or practice field, editors� notes explaining each chapter�s links to
others that relate closely but may not be contiguous, and an �alternate� table
of contents defining eight different kinds of readers and analyzing what�s most
immediately relevant for each of them. The emerging practice of conflict
anticipation consulting is particularly dependent on this integrated approach,
which the authors hope others will adopt along with them. </p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt;
mso-layout-grid-align:none'>The Fieldbook received an honorable mention award
in the 2006 Awards for Excellence in ADR awarded in January by the CPR
Institute, which publishes this newsletter.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>�
</span></p>
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