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<title>AAS 98-161</title><body BGCOLOR="ffffff"> <h2>AAS 98-161</h2> <h2>APPLICATION OF AVERAGE CONTAMINATION SOURCES FOR THE PREDICTION OF SPACE DEBRIS ENVIRONMENT</h2> <h4>A. I. Nazarenko - Center for Program Studies, Russia</h4> <h2> Abstract </h2> The conventional approach to prediction of technogeneous space contamination is based on modeling space debris (SD) generation as a result of satellite launches, technological operations and spacecraft breakups. The technique of SD environment prediction, developed in Russia, uses the averaged description of contamination sources: the average number of annually generated objects of different size on orbits with various altitudes, eccentricities and inclinations. The advantages and limitations of two above-mentioned approaches are considered in the report. The averaged description of contamination sources was used in the computer model for Space Debris Prediction and Analysis developed in Russia (the SDPA-model). <P><A HREF="http://www.space-flight.org/AAS_meetings/1998_winter/sessions.html">Back</A>